Hate to be the grim reaper but are looking at a possible depression

Quote from bundlemaker:

We may indeed be in for a hell of a depression...... or we may not. Over a decade ago a rather convincing (and long ) book titled "Blood In the Streets" provided a most convincing argument for depression, back then.

Equally, you can find many great arguments that the world is on the verge of prosperity the like of which has never been known.

Who is right?

Does it matter. This subject is no different than the markets. Many predict (or try to) for various reasons. Some people are just plain fearful. Others have a hidden agenda. Others, a not so hidden agenda. The bottom line is you'll go crazy and waste your life worrying about what is coming next.

He who can live comfortably with the most uncertainty wins.
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Outstanding post.
 
When my mom was my daughters age --- in 1931

her family was killing chickens in the back yard to eat
and they were better off than many around them



count how many times you went out to dinner last month
and that should give you an indication of where we are
 
dudes...come on...read this...

HISTORY Begins on March 17: "Reversal" Starts:
***DOW/SP bounces off a 3 month double bottom
***Oil/Gold/Euro 'bubble' burst, now in Bearish slide
***market has accepted FEd will always act and rescue
***worst of credit mess behind, market has accepted this
***cash moves from commodities in huge dump back into stocks
***upcoming earnings will point to brighter future as bottom is behind...
***market will see improving economic numbers and not so good numbers will be shrugged off

honestly...prove me wrong...what makes the DOW/SP go lower (break final support) than this 3 month double bottom and what makes Oil/Gold/Euro find current standing support and retrace upward?...the dollar truly is strengthening...REMEMBER MARCH 17..."REVERSAL DAY" for DOW/SP and Oil/Gold/Euro/USD...go ahead and prove this wrong...I'm open to any logical and researched thought...
 
Quote from increasenow:

dudes...come on...read this...

HISTORY Begins on March 17: "Reversal" Starts:
***DOW/SP bounces off a 3 month double bottom
@Double bottom was created by 75BP cuts
***Oil/Gold/Euro 'bubble' burst, now in Bearish slide
@Your point?
***market has accepted FEd will always act and rescue
@Fed cuts are producing smaller shorter rallies. If Fed cuts could support the market they would have done so in 2000-2 when you had very narrow breadth of stocks with High P/E's and a concept i.e. as the theoretical valuation was all there was, cutting rates should have helped then if they ever could.
***worst of credit mess behind, market has accepted this
@Maybe the "market" as represented by CNBC viewers has accepted this, but it seems the real market that moves funds around has not. Treasury bills yields are at the lowest level since the 1950s. First faster frothy wave of a Tsunami, bigger more destructive second wave is multipler effect from banks calling loans and halting lending and housing multiplier effect going into reverse - like operating leverage reversing.
***cash moves from commodities in huge dump back into stocks
@How?, they are selling commodities because they are being MARGIN CALLED.
***upcoming earnings will point to brighter future as bottom is behind...
@Earnings are way too high and all the positive surprises are it seems caused by one analyst lowballing his estimate to bring concensus down. LEH, MS GS FDX 'beat' their estimates but ACTUALLY reported HUGE declines in earnings.
***market will see improving economic numbers and not so good numbers will be shrugged off
@2 years too early on this. Housing is illiquid so takes literally years to grind down from a bubble high

honestly...prove me wrong...what makes the DOW/SP go lower (break final support) than this 3 month double bottom and what makes Oil/Gold/Euro find current standing support and retrace upward?...the dollar truly is strengthening...REMEMBER MARCH 17..."REVERSAL DAY" for DOW/SP and Oil/Gold/Euro/USD...go ahead and prove this wrong...I'm open to any logical and researched thought...
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Answers interjecte above with @. Honestly, I really don't believe that you actually have any money on the line. Granted, there may well be a ST suckers rally as the propaganda machine is saying the problem is over* and the vacum is above with some people still bidding so in the absence of bad news the line of least resistance is up. We are actually in something of a dead zone as Joe 401k has taken losses that are too big to take so he is not redeeming (Accredited investor in Hedge funds will be blocked form doing so) - if it goes significantly lower he will and there will be a cascade.

* Banks didn't fail in 1929, they failed 1930 onwards.
 
There is absolutely nothing wrong with mild and minor recession, it is the talk of depression that scares a lot.

Rising prices of oil and food will lead to curtailed consumptions in other sectors as these two are essential for daily living habbits. So something has to be done to curtail the oil prices which in turn are fueling the rise in food costs.
 
Quote from commoditiestrdr:

I hate to be the grim reaper but how many people on this site think we may be looking at a possible depression.

I hate to think it could happen....but I think it may.

We could see a stock market crash along with the mortgage/banking/real estate crash. I mean how hard is our economy going to get hit it it we have two crashes
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What will be, is what will be. You and I have no control over it. So we can't dwell on it. It is our job to prepare the best we can for any and all potential situations. That is the best we can do.
 
Wall Street Journal had an article saying "beware on the double bottom"...as noted, Deustche Bank said commodities going down in April as did article on www.INO.com ...heres the deal...will be more massive hedge fund selling off in commodities this week and for the upcoming weeks which also send the retail commodity investor into panic sell off mode...prices of Gold will much lower, Oil will be much lower, Euro will sell off...10YR will sold off and the DOW/SP will be in total rebound mode coming through earnings and next FEd mtg with NO rate cut...thus signally US economy 'stabilizing' as they say...I honestly believe...we have seen the TOPS for Gold, Oil, Euro...market will head higher..ALSO...THE DOW JUST CLOSED OVER ITS 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE...THIS IS A HUGE BULLISH INDICATOR FOR THE DOW...!!!....
**COMEX Gold $1,033.00 on March 16th...NEVER to be seen again!
**NYMEX Crude Oil $111.80 on March 17th...NEVER to be seen again!
**CME Globex Euro 1.5820 on March 17th...NEVER to be seen again!
**Dollar Index 70.69 on March 17th...NEVER to be seen again!
**CME Globex 10 Year Note 120.01 on March 17th...NEVER to be seen again!
**DOW 11,000 to NEVER be seen again!
**SP 500 1,200 to NEVER be seen again!
...I welcome any expert to prove this wrong...the BUBBLE has burst...for Gold, Oil, Euro, 10 Year Note...
 
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