Has there ever been a single documented case of profitable live trades?

[NY0BScalper]

Quote from atticus:

No offense, but hit-rate is meaningless.

In the situation I described, I suppose I should have stated average winning days/average losing days. I was making $400-$800 on the winning days and losing $10-$1000 on the losing days, with an average winning day of $550-600 and an average losing day of ~$250. During the 40 trading days I ran the chat I only had one $1000 losing day, the rest I don't recall as having been more than a few hundred dollars.

The strategy I was primarily using was highly gimmicky with its success partially contingent on social relationships. Furthermore, the "sample period" of just a few months was clearly not long enough to demonstrate true, long-term "consistency." Regardless, "whred," the OP, asked a simple question:

I was curious if there was ever a single case of someone who claimed to be able trade profitably, to actually do it live and in front of a camera. I ask because there is tons of material on people claiming to, and even videos where they claim to, but not a single video showing them do it.

To which I replied that yes, it has been done, but the only time I saw it was when I did it. That may not satiate his (or your) desire for "proof," but it's me truthfully sharing my experience.

 

[whred]

Quote from NY0BScalper:

...the only time I saw it was when I did it. That may not satiate his (or your) desire for "proof," but it's me truthfully sharing my experience.

I was glad to get your feedback. I didn't realize there were so many pros and semi-pros on this site. Someone mentioned "branding" being forbidden here, so I am guessing that any pros cannot mention their sites/services.

It's unfortunate there is not some mechanism on this site where the pros can put a link to their site (perhaps in their account details). That way, if I wanted to know if someone had a public track record, I could drill-down and find the link to it.

 

[whred]

Quote from volente_00:

Didn't Larry Williams used to trade live at his seminars and split the profits with those who attended ?

The Vikings did the same things at their weddings!

 

[RichardRimes]

Quote from NoDoji:

I forgot the exact details, but I believe it was a consortium of traders in the UAE who accumulated large positions in HAR over a period of time (HAR's fundamentals were pure crap, but the price kept inexplicably rising), and ran up to new highs one Friday. RW held his short position over the weekend for the RTM move that was very common for this particular setup.

The following Monday in pre-market a false press release was published that hit trading news wires, to the effect that there was a $49/share buyout offer on HAR. Price ran up $13/share in just a couple minutes, RW had to cover during that illiquid time of day in order to preserve his account. Not long after the run up, it became clear that it had been a calculated rumor by the UAE group. Price quickly moved back down to Friday's closing price and then dropped another $4 or $5 from there.

It would've been about a $35K profitable trade if not for the scam.

It may be years before RW gets any restitution

They bust trades all the time.....well at least "some" of the time. It does seem totally bogus that "they" (whoever the powers that be) allow this to stand. Having said that I've seen some mind blowing things on the ES over holiday weekends that only got partially rectified. Ultimately what really kills the trader is the margin call you get.....you settle.... then your right but broke.

thanks again..I wish only good kharma for you in 2012

 

[NY0BScalper]

Quote from whred:

I was glad to get your feedback. I didn't realize there were so many pros and semi-pros on this site. Someone mentioned "branding" being forbidden here, so I am guessing that any pros cannot mention their sites/services.

It's unfortunate there is not some mechanism on this site where the pros can put a link to their site (perhaps in their account details). That way, if I wanted to know if someone had a public track record, I could drill-down and find the link to it.

I'm not sure if your first paragraph is sarcastic. If it is, whatever.

It wasn't my site, and it wasn't recorded. It was just a live-stream, in a chatroom. Someone who was logged in could have used Camtasia or something and created a record, but it didn't work that way. You logged in, saw the chat, had the audio with me talking as I traded ( I would answer text-written questions verbally), and on a screen next to the chatroom (actually I think it was a pop-up window), you got to see the portion of my screen I broadcast.

Basically, it was exactly what you are saying you haven't seen. You had to pay $250/month I think it was to get access, unless you were a member of the firm. As I recall though, anyone given the URL could simply join the chat and view/hear what was going on.

I'm not sure of any such services existing now, though I wouldn't doubt if it it's out there (probably one out of one-hundred, however). I don't currently offer such services; as a matter of fact I am not presently trading, instead working on a non trading-related financial services start-up company.

 

[Lucias]

I think a more interesting question would be.... I mean there are profitable traders. There is no doubt.. A more interesting question would be

Has there ever been an ES/futures day trader able to trade for a living on a 10k (sub 10k) account for at least 3 years? ... (or documented at all)

Part of the reason I want to know is that I feel like I'm one of the very best.. But I don't know what is 100% possible with scalping. I'm also trying to increase my contracts/leverage to return more which I do my trading more contracts. Dr. Brett, I believe, noted he had never met a small retail trader who traded for a living.

Most S&P vendors elude to being able to trade for a living on a 5k or 10k account. With a 50% DD level and annual target of 50k then that's at least a 10x return to risk. I did 6x last year but I didn't use tight stops. However, I didn't take every opportunity either. I'm feel like I could probably take my return up another notch.. I'd expect my profit per contract to drop to around $10ish.

I make between $10 and $30 per contract after cost. So, I need to trade around 250 round trips per month to make 5k or around 12x to 13x contracts per day. At 3 trades per day, that's trading 4 lots.. But if I increase the trade to say 6-8 trades then I could do it with 1 and 2.

Of course, just because no one has else has did it doesn't mean that I can't. Typically I like to add size on my trades but with a small account, it will already be over leveraged. This is what I'm curious. Of course, if I can reduce my risk per trade then I can increase my contract size. The difficulty is that with a tighter stop then I can't avoid taking the stop hit. If I could avoid taking that stop hit then it might be possible.

What are the ES traders doing here? Are there any ES scalpers here doing 10x return to dd returns?

 

[whred]

Quote from NY0BScalper:

I'm not sure if your first paragraph is sarcastic. If it is, whatever.

No, I was not trying to be sarcastic. I was glad that you and several others had shared your experiences. Some of the other responses to this thread were quite unfriendly.

 

[soonhwei]

+1

it doesn't has to be 'video', just 2 things to prove what you claim:
1. exchange clearing/broker statements
2. exchange membership

but question is, why would he wants to do it if hes a 'real' profitable trader. is there a need for self-serving ego boost like most posters doing on web where it's so hard to prove whatever they claim? of course, they'll say then, look at my previous calls, look at my screen captured charts/data, look at my P&L threads, and so on.

Quote from whred:

Hi Zen, thanks for your thoughtful reply. I had the interesting experience of knowing someone who went from being a "basement hacker" to what is now called a professional quant, and who is now basically retired. So I have seen someone do what a lot of people claim to do. The person I knew, however, would never be caught dead in front of a camera. My question in this thread was mostly regarding the plethora of people who discuss trading methods, even on video, yet never make a public trade.

I haven't been very focused on the trading world for about 10 years, so I was really not aware that there sites dedicated to demonstrating people profitable trading. Recently I saw the Collective 2 site, and thought, "Ha, I could probably do as well these guys with what I was tinkering with 10 years ago". So I decided I would try.

Most of what I have seen work comes from people who came to trading from outside the investment world, and had to be "helped" by professionals in order to participate in the industry (their methods originated in weather prediction). Part of my self-education is to expose myself to as much material as possible, which has included a lot of promotional garbage (for "indicators, etc). When I would read that stuff, I couldn't help but wonder why they didn't just demonstrate it working (though I think I can guess why!).

Not to pick on TheRumbledOne, but when I saw his videos, I thought, "Gee, this guy has a method he is freely sharing, and is making almost daily videos, why doesn't he just point the camera at the screen?". So I suggested it to him, and he declined. Perhaps he will change his mind, or someone like him will take up that challenge.

I guess I should have been more clear when I posted this thread, that I was mostly thinking about the "gurus" who say that profitably trading is very simple, how anyone with half a brain can do it, and all you have to do is understand what they are trying to tell you. If I was one of those people, I would be making videos every single day to remove any doubt that I knew what I was doing, and I knew what I was talking about.

There have been a few "grinders" I have known, people who were making enough to live off their profits, but always afraid that a stretch of bad luck would put them back looking for a day job (in a economy where there are few). Their anxiety level was too high for me.

I will look up those pros you mentioned that posted their P&L here. thanks!

 

[bwolinsky]

Quote from soonhwei:

+1

it doesn't has to be 'video', just 2 things to prove what you claim:
1. exchange clearing/broker statements
2. exchange membership

but question is, why would he wants to do it if hes a 'real' profitable trader. is there a need for self-serving ego boost like most posters doing on web where it's so hard to prove whatever they claim? of course, they'll say then, look at my previous calls, look at my screen captured charts/data, look at my P&L threads, and so on.

That does seem to be the MO. The iBroker App has server based automation that can post all of your trades to Twitter. If you are being audited anyway, you'll have nothing to hide, and if the trades you see aren't consistent with the audited financials once they are produced (ie:daily reconciliations from EOD statements), then the story will check out, but I've never heard of anyone doing that except for me.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from Lucias:

Of course, just because no one has else has did it doesn't mean that I can't. Typically I like to add size on my trades but with a small account, it will already be over leveraged. This is what I'm curious. Of course, if I can reduce my risk per trade then I can increase my contract size. The difficulty is that with a tighter stop then I can't avoid taking the stop hit. If I could avoid taking that stop hit then it might be possible.

There is a dangerous fantasy that some beginners have, and I had this fantasy as a beginner. I was a counter-trend trader who traded using indicators and personal opinion. I had mastered the market and considered going prop so I could have the leverage to average down like the professionals do and avoid using stops altogether.

(As every hypothetical professional and every fantasizing noob knows, "Stops cause losses.")

Seriously, that's how I was thinking at the time. I spoke to the head of a prop firm and described my great trading success (I had a 4-month track record and an 80%+ win rate) and my desire to take it to the next level and when I mentioned some little blurb to the effect of "if only I had extra leverage to add to a position properly I'd have a 100% win rate", he tried to set me straight right then and there, realizing I was referring to averaging down, not adding to a winner :eek:

It wasn't until a few months later that the market humbled me without any extra leverage necessary and I embarked on a long journey that led to exactly what you desire in your comment above: the ability to trade with a tight stop without taking so many hits that the risk:reward ratio becomes negative.

It's possible, but requires a lot of personal work. No one can hand you the grail. A great start for learning to trade with small stops placed at survivable levels is to study Al Brooks. His first book is comprehensive, but poorly written/edited. He has a trio of new books that I've been told are better-written versions of the first one. My mentor gave his recent "Trends" book a thumbs up.

There's also informative videos on line, search "Al Brooks videos".

P.S. - CL and 6E are much easier to trade for a living with 1 contract than ES. But they require very strict risk management. I recommend 3-6 months of practice once you have a trading plan.