Has the dreaded China crash finally arrived?

[doublet83]

Quote from clacy:

They are a HUGE net exporter, with very little consumption in the middle of a world wide race to devalue currencies.

They have pumped and stimulated, built empty cities, and roads to nowhere as most Central Planned states do (USSR). Their crash is inevitable, IMO.

I'd very much like to see something more than anecdotal evidence of these empty cities that China bears are always mentioning. There is always some level of waste in an economy, and the extent to which its a problem depends on the severity of that waste. No real statistics exist such as residentail vacancy levels are in the country to gauge this level of waste, so it seems to be this part of the bear thesis requires a huge leap of faith, and it seems to reflect individual basis rather than sound financial analysis grounded in facts.

Most people who have been in China agree that the level of overcrowding in the country seems to suggest that China needs more infrastructure, rather than less.

 

[Eight]

News from China is not from a free press.. they have riots all the time, they have massive unemployment among peasants from the countrysides that never worked on the books so they never get counted in the statistics, etc.. They are centrally planned and that has zero instances of success over the entire world history probably, it doesn't seem to work in the last couple of centuries..

How would we know if they had a crash? Do their leaders even care if they have a crash?

China's central bankers are savvy for sure, they are plenty well educated and they all have worked on Wall Street as traders. That is something to think about, maybe they want to lose the battle but win the war. They have been in talks with India/Russia/Japan about using a basket of regional currencies to replace the USD as the currency of choice and in fact, I believe they started doing that. They are more into economic warfare than prosperity and trade maybe. Totalitarian states don't need prosperity for everybody, just for the people that toe the line. Look at North Korea, what a hellhole that place is for those that don't worship the leaders very devoutly...

 

[oldtime]

Quote from Eight:

News from China is not from a free press.. they have riots all the time, they have massive unemployment among peasants from the countrysides that never worked on the books so they never get counted in the statistics, etc.. They are centrally planned and that has zero instances of success over the entire world history probably, it doesn't seem to work in the last couple of centuries..

How would we know if they had a crash? Do their leaders even care if they have a crash?

China's central bankers are savvy for sure, they are plenty well educated and they all have worked on Wall Street as traders. That is something to think about, maybe they want to lose the battle but win the war. They have been in talks with India/Russia/Japan about using a basket of regional currencies to replace the USD as the currency of choice and in fact, I believe they started doing that. They are more into economic warfare than prosperity and trade maybe. Totalitarian states don't need prosperity for everybody, just for the people that toe the line. Look at North Korea, what a hellhole that place is for those that don't worship the leaders very devoutly...

no kidding, it doesn't even have to include India and Japan, just a China/Russia currency that they both honor and exchange between themselves could be quite disconcerting to the world.

 

[Random.Capital]

If the Germans can't organize Europe, I'd say the odds of Chinese and Russians organizing each other are pretty darn low.

IMO.

 

[oldtime]

Quote from Random.Capital:

If the Germans can't organize Europe, I'd say the odds of Chinese and Russians organizing each other are pretty darn low.

IMO.

and you young man! Just what are you doing up this late!? And who are you talking to on the internet? Let me make you some warm milk and go back to sleep. You have a busy day tomorrow.

(China and Russia, I never heard such silliness)