Has Buffet Lost His Touch?

[fader]

i've just read this on Niederhoffer's site:

Thank goodness the Sage had Charlie to restrain him from speculating so much more against the dollar than the $22 billion he admitted to being short at Berkshire's last annual meeting. When will the first brave soul write about this terrible investment that since the end of the year may have created a greater loss in magnitude than all the other investments he has made up to that time? And how does he subtly engulf smart people like his surrogate son at the computer software company and get him to talk at Davos about dollar weakness and how the Chinese system is so much superior to ours because they put the really smart people in government positions there, without being too overt or pushy about it? Also, what will happen to the market when word gets out that the possibility or pressure to exit the position might at some time arise?




hmm.. "this terrible investment that since the end of the year may have created a greater loss in magnitude than all the other investments he has made up to that time" ??

 

[QuenkishZakos]

Quote from traderbal:

Check out the link:
http://www.emporis.com/en/bu/nc/ne/?id=101370
Park Otel Block A
2005-05-08

Reported by Asim Kazancigil


News: Park Otel is purchased by Warren Buffett
Istanbul: The construction site of Park Otel, the most controversial highrise project ever in Istanbul (on hold since 1993) is purchased by Warren Buffett for $ 38 million.

Buffett intends to gain permission for the construction of a mixed-use project that will include a hotel, retail facility and residential tower.

Park Otel's construction works were suspended in 1993 by the Supreme Court due to the building's historic location (very close to Galata, the medieval Genoese quarter of Istanbul) which is under legal protection against projects that might alter the face of the historical district.

Warren Buffett also expressed interest on the nearby $ 500 million worth Galataport project, which was recently approved and will comprise Istanbul's new harbour that will accomodate large ocean cruise liners.

Click on Park Otel Block A in Istanbul for more information.

what does warren buffet know about turkey? i can't understand why he would want to make this investment!

 

[Banjo]

If and when Turkey is admited into the EU it becomes a sort of financial demilitarized zone into the Muslim world, a sort of modern version of the ancient spice road.

 

[QuenkishZakos]

Quote from Banjo:

If and when Turkey is admited into the EU it becomes a sort of financial demilitarized zone into the Muslim world, a sort of modern version of the ancient spice road.

still it is along way from omaha it is more like a soros investment then a buffet type of investment.

 

[QuenkishZakos]

Quote from fader:

i've just read this on Niederhoffer's site:

Thank goodness the Sage had Charlie to restrain him from speculating so much more against the dollar than the $22 billion he admitted to being short at Berkshire's last annual meeting. When will the first brave soul write about this terrible investment that since the end of the year may have created a greater loss in magnitude than all the other investments he has made up to that time? And how does he subtly engulf smart people like his surrogate son at the computer software company and get him to talk at Davos about dollar weakness and how the Chinese system is so much superior to ours because they put the really smart people in government positions there, without being too overt or pushy about it? Also, what will happen to the market when word gets out that the possibility or pressure to exit the position might at some time arise?




hmm.. "this terrible investment that since the end of the year may have created a greater loss in magnitude than all the other investments he has made up to that time" ??

niederhoffer does not seem to be a fan of buffet, neither does taleb.

 

[Banjo]

Don't know when or how the bad blood between these two started. I was reading some of Mungers stuff once and he threw barbs at VN, during a speech @ U C Santa Barbara I think. Probably the polarity in styles has something to do with it. I read VN's site for a couple mos. and there is a subtle arrogance there imo along with a lot of meaningless giberish. They both have more money than I do and are both working hard to that end. Buffet and Munger are very logical and pragmatic, there is a risk profile to every move as nobody is a fortune teller. If I were to extend my family's financial well being through outside investors into the next half century it would be with Berk Hath and not a cowboy like VN.
Buffet simply employs a longer term horizon which is diametrically opposed to our cultural rythm. The thing is that the long term gets here, like it or not.

 

[Banjo]

Quote from QuenkishZakos:

still it is along way from omaha it is more like a soros investment then a buffet type of investment.

Agree with that, I think the world is collapsing faster than some want to recognize and it may not be as far from Omaha as it once was.

 

[jem]

It seems to me a great risk reward bet.

It would be like me betting a few hundred bucks that Turkey becomes the new trade center.

Only he has the cache to make it happen.

Sort of like that Kostner movie. If you build it they will come.

Besides he has to support his Euro bet. He is doing a big favor for Europe with this move. More than any Foreign affairs office could ever do.

If I were Turkey I would give him red carpet treatment. It is the coolest international move I have ever seen and I am no fan of Buffet finding him to be a self serving jerk.

For that opininion I reference his socialist political statements in the U.S. press. And his insulting remarks about short term traders. (Which I found to be incredibly hypocritical. Considering he is a trader too and invests in fast food and disposable razors.)

 

[Banjo]

Yep, it is a very smooth bet imo, in his shoes I would make it.

 

[mlipsky]

i laugh every time I see someone quote Jim Rodgers -- see above. He made a speech in '96 in which he said the US markets (menaing the financial industry, not investments) would be struggling for their survival w/in a few yrs and that countries all over the world were eating our lunch. It was absurd at the time and he couldn't have been proven more wrong.