Still ducking the question...how has your "Short the market in 2019, cause it's gonna crash!!" plan been working out?
Has anyone ever seen a stock market meltup?
- Thread starter Giddiyup
- Start date
Still ducking the question...how has your "Short the market in 2019, cause it's gonna crash!!" plan been working out?
There will be a melt up. After the election, a meltdown.
Give @Stockolio a break, he is a permanent bear. Sooner or later he will be right. Not a prediction.
Give @Stockolio a break, he is a permanent bear. Sooner or later he will be right. Not a prediction.
Yeah, if you live in a part of the world with 4 seasons, it's like saying "It will be hot some time this year...and it will be cold." The broken clock effect...
%%
Best chart book is your own paper charts;+ huge amounts of data.
Could call it a triple top, on monthly candles; but pre-election year tends to be superStrong+ FED comments turned it back @ 200 day moving average,2019.
Even a superStrong year like 2009 had 2 months in a row down 10%, down 10%/+ [SPY/cash]
, Can China survive another year of trump?
There will be a melt up. After the election, a meltdown.
Give @Stockolio a break, he is a permanent bear. Sooner or later he will be right. M
I see what you mean. I could be wrong.%%
Best chart book is your own paper charts;+ huge amounts of data.
Could call it a triple top, on monthly candles; but pre-election year tends to be superStrong+ FED comments turned it back @ 200 day moving average,2019.
Even a superStrong year like 2009 had 2 months in a row down 10%, down 10%/+ [SPY/cash]
Tariffs have absolutely nothing to do with china collapsing... It affects Foreign Inflow, but at this stage of capital control, and just overall extremely negative sentiment towards the chinese commies and their view on business, tariffs or not Foreign money is leaving china as long as communist party in charge... The " Trade War " is the new subprime, blame it on the hot topic of the day when it all crumbles, instead of Central Banks fucked the world hard with ZIRP and NIRP. Almost 12 Trillion negative yielding assets that might be used as collateral, Money Markets seem to have changed in attitudes recently, and problem is less collateral to splash around cause so many CB's own safe collateral ( Government Debt ). So how does the world have 50 % more in debt then peak debt crisis of 2008, yet we have way less collateral ? Bad bad things coming... It's clear as day to anyone paying attention, big trouble in lil china comes from the fact they deeply borrow in Eurodollar markets and post their shit bonds as collateral, when Baoshang bank fucked up, PBOC said it would cover only 70 % of losses on bond, while the thought was pboc will pay back 100 % of any loses on chinese bonds... Now you have dozens of Trillions in Yuan Bonds already used as collateral from loans, that might be worth fuck all cause PBOC ain't bailing out much more... You dig ?
Those who say china's banking problem won't affect anywhere else is non sense... Over 50 % of lending in non-US banks was offshore to offshore, and china is the biggest consumer of loans in Eurodollar markets... Now their collateral is bunk, credit markets will shit the bed soon.
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-geography-of-dollar-funding-of-non-us-banks-201901071552
https://www.euronews.com/2019/06/19...o-exchanges-for-cash-as-money-markets-tighten
This is a nightmare scenario for china playing out, this is plan Z in financial terms... I quote part of article :
China’s smaller banks and brokers are turning to stock exchanges to borrow short-term cash this week to escape the typical end of June pressure in money markets and more recent worries over credit risks in the sector.
The volume of repurchase agreements on the Shanghai stock exchange, in which banks and other financial firms borrow money from each other using bonds as collateral, surged as borrowers sought an alternative to the over-the-counter interbank money market.
Traders said the lower borrowing costs on the exchange and the less stringent requirements for collateral drove smaller players to the exchange.
“Cost of borrowing on the exchange is lower,” said a trader at a Chinese bank in Shanghai.
The interbank markets were affected not just by shortages of cash but also concerns over the quality of the pledged collateral.
Traders said collateral requirements had tightened in the interbank market in the wake of regulators taking over the troubled and credit-laden Inner Mongolia-based Baoshang Bank.
Borrowers could still pledge their corporate bonds on the exchange for repos but lenders in the interbank markets had turned picky.
“It is not just the quarter-end liquidity issue in the interbank market, it’s more of a structural conflict.
This is a nightmare scenario for china playing out, this is plan Z in financial terms... I quote part of article :
China’s smaller banks and brokers are turning to stock exchanges to borrow short-term cash this week to escape the typical end of June pressure in money markets and more recent worries over credit risks in the sector.
The volume of repurchase agreements on the Shanghai stock exchange, in which banks and other financial firms borrow money from each other using bonds as collateral, surged as borrowers sought an alternative to the over-the-counter interbank money market.
Traders said the lower borrowing costs on the exchange and the less stringent requirements for collateral drove smaller players to the exchange.
“Cost of borrowing on the exchange is lower,” said a trader at a Chinese bank in Shanghai.
The interbank markets were affected not just by shortages of cash but also concerns over the quality of the pledged collateral.
Traders said collateral requirements had tightened in the interbank market in the wake of regulators taking over the troubled and credit-laden Inner Mongolia-based Baoshang Bank.
Borrowers could still pledge their corporate bonds on the exchange for repos but lenders in the interbank markets had turned picky.
“It is not just the quarter-end liquidity issue in the interbank market, it’s more of a structural conflict.
I don't disagree with everything Stockolio says...just his tendency to read "crash" and "Chicken Little!" into everything that's happening around the world. Things aren't that bad or simple and there are always trade-offs and ways markets and economies adapt.