has anyone ever backtested a method and then traded it profitably?

[sle]

My trade setup is based on astrological approach. Back tests prove to be quite accurate. The most difficult part, for me, is the entry & exit points.

How do you handle the technology for signal generation? Do you own your own telescope or you outsource it?

PS. I hear better astro-traders use radio frequency telescopes so they get the signal a touch before the rest of the crowds

 

[SPYAlgoTrader]

random entries / exits (or monkeys playing on a keyboard) in fact beats 90% of traders

coupled with good risk management => profitable

 

[Sentiment Spectrum]

How do you handle the technology for signal generation? Do you own your own telescope or you outsource it?

PS. I hear better astro-traders use radio frequency telescopes so they get the signal a touch before the rest of the crowds

Using astro calendar in calculating planetary power is my key approach to get the underlying sentiments of a stock market. Hence, my gratitude and salutation to ones who create astro calendar. I trust those who use financial astrology have their own approaches to get their data, but for myself entirely on the described calendar.

 

[Sentiment Spectrum]

Sorry, with all due respects, I do not know what Wave59 is. I simply use my local astro calendar to calculate & forecast stock market movement, regardless of fundamental or technical analyses. My approach is to get underlying sentiments behind people's decision to invest by noticing and mapping out planetary power spectrum.

 

[ironchef]

More or less. But it can happen without them realizing they are just curvefitting. I saw many newbies testing all kind of indicators that are freely available on the internet. They just changed the parameters to see what setting would give the best return. Some of then even "optimized" these parameters on a daily or weekly basis. But in reality they have/had no clue at all about the market.

Yes, been there done that.

 

[ironchef]

The first thing you should do is think. What moves the markets, how does it move the markets, how can I manage these moves in such a way that it is profitable?
You should first understand the behavior of the market, which is in fact the behavior of the participants. After that you can try to find a solution; you should first understand the real problem. You cannot find a good solution if you understand the problem in a wrong way.

I never followed/bought any trading course, neither did I read books about it (except for Market Wizards as I received these books for free from my broker, but at that time I had already a profitable system). My brain was never spoiled by all the BS you find on internet. It help me also to think in a logical way that was not influenced by others. The real out-of-the-box thinking. It was a journey that lasted many years, so I was apparently too stupid to find in "no time" a good system like many do as it seems.

Thank you for the coaching. I will remember that.

 

[ironchef]

The first thing you should do is think. What moves the markets, how does it move the markets, how can I manage these moves in such a way that it is profitable?
You should first understand the behavior of the market, which is in fact the behavior of the participants. After that you can try to find a solution; you should first understand the real problem. You cannot find a good solution if you understand the problem in a wrong way.

It sounds simple but is actually very profound. It is God and Motherhood but actually what moves the markets and what is the behavior of the participants are very complex. You care to expand on that? OK if you don't want to, I can accept that.

 

[schweiz]

random entries / exits (or monkeys playing on a keyboard) in fact beats 90% of traders

coupled with good risk management => profitable

Instead of random entries / exits, I try to be in the 10% that is better than the monkey.

 

[schweiz]

It sounds simple but is actually very profound. It is God and Motherhood but actually what moves the markets and what is the behavior of the participants are very complex. You care to expand on that? OK if you don't want to, I can accept that.

I follow the theory of behavioral finance.

Traders suffer from self-overestimation and are often not inclined to learn from their mistakes. As a result of their overconfidence, traders appear to act more often (with higher transaction costs as a result) and are timing the market often wrong. An important tip to get better results is to "have enough patience".

Financial cognitive dissonance refers to the concept of cognitive dissonance in a financial framework. During the so-called internet bubble, at the beginning of this century, investors justified the purchase of internet investment funds - which was not rational from a rational point of view - by pointing to the widespread feeling that a new economy was emerging with new rules. Herd behavior plays an important role here: if everyone around you is convinced of something, you have to be strong in your shoes to stick to a different opinion. Watch also the Bitcoin bubble end 2017 and the insane prices at which traders were buying.

Regret theory. The regret theory assumes, on the one hand, that people can experience regret as a result of a bad decision, but on the other hand, when people make their choices, they anticipate this regret and thereby try to minimize it. The theory of regret explains the emotional reaction of people when they have made a wrong decision. Traders are often stuck to the price at which they have bought and they have a lot of trouble selling if it is below the purchase price. After all, they would sell at a loss and they do not like doing that because they have to admit their wrong decision. Therefore, they would rather try to recover part of that loss first. This often ends in an even bigger loss.

The probability theory deals with estimating opportunities and risks. For example, people are not good at analyzing complex situations and especially not when the future consequences are uncertain. One of the consequences is that people often tend to overestimate small probabilities and underestimate big probabilities. Translated to traders, this means that when traders are faced with a chance of loss, they often overestimate this risk and therefore choose a less favorable solution.
Traders start to behave risk-avoiding resulting in not making a good return calculation and therefore choosing the wrong investment more often.

 

[ironchef]

I follow the theory of behavioral finance.

Traders suffer from self-overestimation and are often not inclined to learn from their mistakes. As a result of their overconfidence, traders appear to act more often (with higher transaction costs as a result) and are timing the market often wrong. An important tip to get better results is to "have enough patience".

Financial cognitive dissonance refers to the concept of cognitive dissonance in a financial framework. During the so-called internet bubble, at the beginning of this century, investors justified the purchase of internet investment funds - which was not rational from a rational point of view - by pointing to the widespread feeling that a new economy was emerging with new rules. Herd behavior plays an important role here: if everyone around you is convinced of something, you have to be strong in your shoes to stick to a different opinion. Watch also the Bitcoin bubble end 2017 and the insane prices at which traders were buying.

Regret theory. The regret theory assumes, on the one hand, that people can experience regret as a result of a bad decision, but on the other hand, when people make their choices, they anticipate this regret and thereby try to minimize it. The theory of regret explains the emotional reaction of people when they have made a wrong decision. Traders are often stuck to the price at which they have bought and they have a lot of trouble selling if it is below the purchase price. After all, they would sell at a loss and they do not like doing that because they have to admit their wrong decision. Therefore, they would rather try to recover part of that loss first. This often ends in an even bigger loss.

The probability theory deals with estimating opportunities and risks. For example, people are not good at analyzing complex situations and especially not when the future consequences are uncertain. One of the consequences is that people often tend to overestimate small probabilities and underestimate big probabilities. Translated to traders, this means that when traders are faced with a chance of loss, they often overestimate this risk and therefore choose a less favorable solution.
Traders start to behave risk-avoiding resulting in not making a good return calculation and therefore choosing the wrong investment more often.

Thank you for taking the time to comment.

Speaking of psychology, I often suffered from FOMO (fear of missing out) and got in when things were already peaked and on a downward trajectory.