Harry Dent and the Bubble Boom

B

BertH

I read a good amount of his book and came away pretty impressed. In fact, I'd say the gist of his demographic analysis made me somewhat look for the bull moves more than reality probably dictated.
Fortunately, I traded small recently when the market turned downward.

For those who read the book, what are your thoughts about his extremely optimistic predictions for the stock market? I am curious what he may be thinking as well, considering the divebombing that's gone on the past month. It possibly puts a big crimp in his conclusions.
 
Quote from kiwi_trader:

Didnt the book call for dips in 2006 and again in 2007?
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I don't think so...but if he did then 2008 and 2009 will be straight up. I believe Harry Dent Jr. still thinks the Dow will reach 36,000 and the Nasdaq 10,000 by 2009. *

* I don't have his book in front of me, but those numbers should be close

His latest book has a major typo though......he's bullish on the USD against the EUR and shows a EUR/USD chart in an upward trend during the next few years. Should be a downward trend if he is bullish on the USD.
 
Quote from BertH:

For those who read the book, what are your thoughts about his extremely optimistic predictions for the stock market? I am curious what he may be thinking as well, considering the divebombing that's gone on the past month. It possibly puts a big crimp in his conclusions.
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He was extremely optimistic for the stock market before 2000. Then years after the 2000 crash and the Nasdaq at about 1500 he up-dated his book and still believes a Dow 36,000 and Nasdaq 10,000 before 2010.

A few bad months will not put a big crimp his conclusions, only time will tell.
 
Darn, forced to get the book out.

p83 Acceleration phase: 2005 to mid-2006

.. new highs by second half of 2005 ... .... then we will see the first major setback in the markets on the four/eight-year cycle, likely to be over by October 2006. We would expect a 20% plus correction in the Dow and stronger for leading sectors like the Nasdaq ...

Next Great Bubble 2007-2009-2010

.. a very strong tech-led really from late 2006 into late 2009 that ... there could be a brief and even sharp setback in late 2007, especially if the Fed adopts a tightening bias ... but we think that cycle is less likely to kick in significantly after a substantial correction in late 2006.

This seems to me to be saying that hes expecting -20% on the dow this year so we've got another 1300 points to go before september/october.

The biggest issue for the dow xx,000 argument seems to me to be that we havent yet achieved the new highs he expected in 2005.
 
Quote from kiwi_trader:

Darn, forced to get the book out.

p83 Acceleration phase: 2005 to mid-2006

.. new highs by second half of 2005 ... .... then we will see the first major setback in the markets on the four/eight-year cycle, likely to be over by October 2006. We would expect a 20% plus correction in the Dow and stronger for leading sectors like the Nasdaq ...

Next Great Bubble 2007-2009-2010

.. a very strong tech-led really from late 2006 into late 2009 that ... there could be a brief and even sharp setback in late 2007, especially if the Fed adopts a tightening bias ... but we think that cycle is less likely to kick in significantly after a substantial correction in late 2006.

This seems to me to be saying that hes expecting -20% on the dow this year so we've got another 1300 points to go before september/october.

The biggest issue for the dow xx,000 argument seems to me to be that we havent yet achieved the new highs he expected in 2005.
More...

Interesting, kiwi (and others), thanks. I was thinking the same thing about the 2005 levels, but couldn't recall the details. Is eye-opening that he expects a significant correction.
 
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