Hardest and Most Valuable Things In Trading
- Thread starter tradingjournals
- Start date
The 'AHA' that transitioned me from a losing gambler to a small, but consistently, profitable trader:
Confidence in my system.
As a noob trader, who has been involved to some degree as a gambler in the financial markets in the last 7 years, it took a complete change of mindset to realize that you don't need a "perfect trading system". You just need to believe in one like the Pope believes in Jesus.
For me, finding an edge was the easiest part. Look up Geez or Anekdoten on ET - these guys generously spell out, in minute detail, a perfectly working strategy that I guarantee you is profitable in the long term. Will it work for you and me? Probably not. At least, not until we believe in it the same way they do. And that will only come from screen time.
You see, logically and academically, I KNOW their system works. I understand it, I can internalize it, and in an exam, I would probably ace it 100%. The problem is every trading system out there is an odds-machine at its core - you'll have winners, and you'll have losers. Without that unshakable faith, by the time I take the 3rd stop loss in a row, and I'm down 4.5 pts, I start to think "Crap, how do I make that back?? My last winner was only 1.25 points!!!". And thats when I start skipping signals, the very same signals that will eventually result in a 12 point whopper that would've put me into the green.
How do you gain the confidence? Screen time. While I used to spend every free moment into researching new stratagies, I now spend it on NeoTicker, using market replays from various years to further reinforce the fact that yes, my system works - just take every single damn signal no matter how lousy it looks on the right edge of the chart.
"Trading" used to be fun and exciting for me. I now realize that's just adrenaline from taking a directional gamble without protection. Real trading for me now is by gawd, one of the most boring things in the world. In a way, it's not unlike sitting in an assembly line: when Product A drops in front of you, you do Procedure B, followed by Procedure C, and then wait for the next to drop. Boring ..... but profitable.
Confidence in my system.
As a noob trader, who has been involved to some degree as a gambler in the financial markets in the last 7 years, it took a complete change of mindset to realize that you don't need a "perfect trading system". You just need to believe in one like the Pope believes in Jesus.
For me, finding an edge was the easiest part. Look up Geez or Anekdoten on ET - these guys generously spell out, in minute detail, a perfectly working strategy that I guarantee you is profitable in the long term. Will it work for you and me? Probably not. At least, not until we believe in it the same way they do. And that will only come from screen time.
You see, logically and academically, I KNOW their system works. I understand it, I can internalize it, and in an exam, I would probably ace it 100%. The problem is every trading system out there is an odds-machine at its core - you'll have winners, and you'll have losers. Without that unshakable faith, by the time I take the 3rd stop loss in a row, and I'm down 4.5 pts, I start to think "Crap, how do I make that back?? My last winner was only 1.25 points!!!". And thats when I start skipping signals, the very same signals that will eventually result in a 12 point whopper that would've put me into the green.
How do you gain the confidence? Screen time. While I used to spend every free moment into researching new stratagies, I now spend it on NeoTicker, using market replays from various years to further reinforce the fact that yes, my system works - just take every single damn signal no matter how lousy it looks on the right edge of the chart.
"Trading" used to be fun and exciting for me. I now realize that's just adrenaline from taking a directional gamble without protection. Real trading for me now is by gawd, one of the most boring things in the world. In a way, it's not unlike sitting in an assembly line: when Product A drops in front of you, you do Procedure B, followed by Procedure C, and then wait for the next to drop. Boring ..... but profitable.
#1 Patience, wait for the right moment.
#2 Bird in hand worth two in the bush.
Ah, yes, that's something I agree with...
You didn't say if the starting position of the coin is the same on every toss, but if it is, then it would be worth placing a substantial bet that the 51st toss will come up heads. A perfectly calibrated machine would apply the same force to the coin on every toss.
edit: The surface the coin lands on is also a factor. I'm assuming the surface is also perfectly calibrated.
Quote from tradingjournals:
Great answers so far. Thanks to all of you. You are real ly a group of great and knowledgeable people. Thanks also to those who like to write insults to have given this thread a waiver. I appreciate it.
I have not given my views yet, but would do later. I wanted the thread to be independent, and be less about me and more about everyone else.
One concern I noticed is in relation to those who offer "expertise". It is true that the majority of them are not worth it, but what is worse is that some of them can actually harm the student (in knowledge at least).
I have a list of little questions that allow me to quickly filter out those who think they are experts. For instance, in the area of options, I ask these questions (which seem easy, but determine with precision the knowledgeable from the less non knowledgeable):
1. What is the delta of an ATM call option when interest rate is zero and there is no dividend? If the answer is 0.5, then I would strike the candidate out. If I hear, it is around 0.5 and/or some murkiness, then I proceed to question 2.
2. "I read that there are strategies where I can be delta neutral by buying puts and calls. In fact, I like the straddle. Is the straddle delta-neutral?" If the answer is yes with confidence, then another candidate is out.
3. By now I might already have none on my list that passed 1. and 2., but just in case I do have one good person, I can ask another question, such as this one. "Sir, I have read that a key to making money in options is to manage risk, and I like to write options and manage risk. I also read that an important rule is to never let the stock visit my short strike, which is always out of the money when I sell the option on my open trade. How do I calculate the probability that the stock visits my short strike from the greeks like delta which I have on my broker screen". If the answers is something like roughly delta, then I strike him out. If the answer is ____ then I may have a winner on my hand....
Do you have a short list of similar questions for stock trading expertise that would allow one to quickly sift the gold from the non-gold?
not everyone trades options or gives a shit about delta etc. so
your methodology is flawed, carry on.
my point was let's think outside the box just a bit!
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/breakin...-in-the-world-is-a-securities-trader/?p=2022/
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/breakin...-in-the-world-is-a-securities-trader/?p=2022/
try this:
The trend long triad: B2B 2R 2B .
and its twin
the trend short triad. R2R 2B 2R
7, 6, 5, 4 are the long trend scores in order.
3, 2, 1, 0 are the short trend scores in order.
It is mysterious to you ........ that makes me a lunatic.
You sound like someone from Rosenthal Collins.
KidPWRtrader brought up the doggie theme. I think it is funny and he is childish and doesn't think critically at all. That is the way it is for him: dog and master. Expert traders are anything but dogs.
Could we keep the thread focus on the topic? I noticed that the experienced and successful people are posting less after some recent altercations between some posters.
Exellent post.
If there were a thread on newbie problems; I certainly would be a poster to avoid by most newbies.
A newbie's mind is not empty.
Most newbies fall into two categories:
1. Those who want to make money, or
2. Those who want to learn the markets.
There are only a few things needed to make money.
Learning the markets is another story; the one for getting very very rich.
All my posts are focussed on learning the markets.
For coolweb, I responded with only the genius stuff which relates to becoming very very rich. And I threw in the humor of kidPWRtrader's dog and master.
Everything in a newbie's mind is a mindblocker for learning the markets.
The newbies need ony to annotate, log and follow a routine. For this effort, he has something that will take care of him for the rest of his life.
OODA, the betting routine does not work. Newbies do not log nor do they annotate.
Newbies look for shortcuts.
The hardest and most beautiful thing about being very very rich from trading is having a beautiful mind.
There is no noise nor anamolies in the markets. Just review, in detail, the ATS's that come from these minds.
I was a newbie 53 years ago. Boy, was it fun.
Few newbies ever get to see the markets. Instead, a PC blocks their potential view.
Why does Tim Morge do hand made charts? Obviously, so he can see the markets.
If a person learns the markets, two things happen: making money is a consequence and he can "read" my posts which are about the market's workings.
Learning the markets is a mind building process; everyone starts way below ground zero.
Nothing makes any sense for as long as a person keeps getting in his own way.
Why don't we devote this thread to 30 different ways of making money?