Hammering away, slow and methodical

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Total Net Profit (Since 7/1/12)	$3,618.47 
(Per Share)	$0.10 
Gross Profit	$12,204.29 
Gross Loss	($8,585.83)
Profit Factor	1.42
Total Number of Trades	585
Percent Profitable	58.12%
Winning Trades	340
Losing Trades	245
Avg. Trade Net Profit	$6.19 
Avg. Winning Trade	$35.89 
Avg. Losing Trade	($35.04)
Ratio Avg. Win:Avg. Loss	1.02
Expectancy	0.17
Largest Winning Trade	$454.12 
Largest Losing Trade	($392.40)
Max. Consecutive Winning Trades	24
Max. Consecutive Losing Trades	31
Total Shares/Contracts Held	37300
Total Commission	$1,090.63 
Return on Initial Capital	3.62%
Annual Rate of Return	14.71%
Buy & Hold Return	0.25%
Trading Period	2 Mths, 27 Dys, 6 Hrs
Max. Equity Run-up(Daily)	$6,286.72 
Date of Max. Equity Run-up	9/27/2012 15:00
Max. Drawdown(Daily)	
Value	($2,116.35)
Date	7/20/2012 15:00
as % of Initial Capital	2.12%
Max. Trade Drawdown	($652.00)
	
Net Worth	$100,143
Wkly Performance	-0.28%
Dollar Gain/Loss	-$293
S&P Wkly Performance	-1.34%
Cum. Perform. (7/1/12)	3.77%
S&P Cum. Performance	5.78%
Correlation to S&P	0.09
Net Long Exposure	41%
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I had a negative week, but not as bad as the S&P. I started using MZZ, UltraShort MidCap400 ProShrs, instead of SH to short with. I recently noticed that my positions were more correlated with the E-mini S&P MidCap futures. MZZ doesn't trade as many shares, but I like the 2X exposure. I am down 1K on PANL, holding 913 shares. I haven't read any terrible news on it. We will see how it does next week.
 

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I’ve gone full tilt on PANL. Today was the first up close in 14 days. I suspect pre-earnings price manipulation, so I am going to hold this one until earnings early November.

Symbol Open P/L Open P/L % Average Price Quantity Total Cost Description
PANL ($996.57) -1.20% 34.31 2,413 $82,797 Univl Display

Real-time Account Net Worth $100,583.97
Real-time Realized P/L (Today) $199.48
Real-time Unrealized P/L ($1,127.69)
Net Long Exp, 104%
Number of Positions 9
 
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Total Net Profit (Since 7/1/12)	$4,161.66 
(Per Share)	$0.10 
Gross Profit	$13,592.47 
Gross Loss	($9,430.80)
Profit Factor	1.44
Total Number of Trades	628
Percent Profitable	59.24%
Winning Trades	372
Losing Trades	256
Avg. Trade Net Profit	$6.63 
Avg. Winning Trade	$36.54 
Avg. Losing Trade	($36.84)
Ratio Avg. Win:Avg. Loss	0.99
Expectancy	0.18
Largest Winning Trade	$454.12 
Largest Losing Trade	($421.28)
Max. Consecutive Winning Trades	24
Max. Consecutive Losing Trades	31
Total Shares/Contracts Held	40154
Total Commission	$1,159.71 
Return on Initial Capital	4.16%
Annual Rate of Return	15.20%
Buy & Hold Return	0.26%
Trading Period	3 Mths, 6 Dys
Max. Equity Run-up(Daily)	$6,264.11 
Date of Max. Equity Run-up	9/27/2012 15:00
Max. Drawdown(Daily)	
Value	($2,119.79)
Date	7/20/2012 15:00
as % of Initial Capital	2.12%
Max. Trade Drawdown	($652.00)
	
Net Worth	$100,836
Wkly Performance	0.67%
Dollar Gain/Loss	$693
S&P Wkly Performance	1.47%
Cum. Perform. (7/1/12)	4.46%
S&P Cum. Performance	7.34%
Correlation to S&P	0.10
Net Long Exposure	94%
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Positive week, but nothing outstanding. Equity swings have increased on the curve. Looking for an upside breakout soon.
 

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Symbol Open P/L Open P/L % Average Price Quantity Total Cost Description
PANL ($7.24) -0.01% 34.31 2,413 $82,797 Univl Display
QLD $62.21 0.11% 58.40 1,000 $58,398 ProShares Ultra QQQ Trust

Real-time Account Net Worth $101,586.62
Real-time Realized P/L (Today) ($24.95)
Real-time Unrealized P/L ($179.56)
Net Long Exp, 160%
Number of Positions 11

Holding 2 large positions here and a few others. PANL came back from below 34 to close green, which was encouraging on a down market day. I still want to hold it until earnings. The company has no debt, and has started becoming net profitable, and believe it or not, is still in an uptrend starting in June. Of course, I could just be trying to justify my risky positions! I will start working nights in a few weeks, so I can be up and alert for the market open at 0830 here in Texas. I missed an opportunity to lock in a 2K profit recently on PANL because I was asleep. I just don’t see the market rolling over here, but I am a bit uncomfortable with the risk I am taking…
 
Closed QLD at the open for a $100 gain. I didn’t like the overall mood of the market. Still holding PANL, but may have to start selling shares if automation eats into BP. 34 is still acting like a magnet for now. Hopefully a new round of buyers will emerge (like me) and after the bulls who bought higher give up, I can reap my reward around earnings. I have a $40 price target in mind.

Real-time Account Net Worth $101,477.96
Real-time Realized P/L (Today) $205.28
Real-time Unrealized P/L ($489.14)
Net Long Exp, 121%
Number of Positions 25
 
PANL breaking out. Now 35 is support. Got to love mean reversion, or depending on when you get in, trendfollowing. Don't see much resistance until 37.39, 200 dma.

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did i hear right?

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I am looking to achieve a minimum 30% return with a maximum 30% DD.
 
Quote from chipmunk:

did i hear right?

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I am looking to achieve a minimum 30% return with a maximum 30% DD.
More...

I know the PANL trade is risky and these kinds of trades could lead to instant drawdowns, but in my mind, it is less risky here after the sell off than before at 44. I could likely still hit 30% returns, even without these risky trades, though. I am returning to the ways of my youth somewhat, when I could hit several K on a regular basis. That was before 2008 with the 50% market correction, of course. I don't take these large trades lightly and give them great attention and research. It could do a number like this stock, but not come back...

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LOL. That PANL screenshot was at the high of the day. Hopefully 35 will become new support. I only think these round numbers have meaning because I can see reactions occurring around them sometimes. It is a self fulfilling prophesy when enough market participants look at these areas so they naturally become S/R. If 35 doesn’t hold tomorrow, I may go ahead and get out for a small gain, and to free up capital. I normally would have gotten out this morning on the bounce, but I am trying to incorporate earnings related moves in some stocks. Fridays tend to be up days for the markets, so hopefully tomorrow I can take some profits and reduce exposure here. I want to get better about putting on a short position when long signals are few in anticipation of looming short term market weakness. So when long signals ramp up, I will already have a hedge in place, rather than waiting for a drawdown to occur first. I think markets are weak recently so they can turn around and rally some around upcoming earnings season. The market correction will materialize when it gets down to voting regarding the fiscal cliff.

Real-time Account Net Worth $103,294.78
Real-time Realized P/L (Today) $63.73
Real-time Unrealized P/L $1,265.46
Net Long Exp 140%
Number of Positions 36
 
Relieved to come back from a NW of $99,400 just a few days ago. It could have turned out poorly had the market continued to decline given my 180% exposure level. Still holding PANL until earnings, but I don’t want to mention it too much given my market moving position, or get an SEC investigation on the hopeful pop ;). What is the uncomfortable thing to do? Buy when the market is going against you and possibly go lower, or to buy when it is going in your favor and to fear buying the top? I think commissions and slippage is what grinds away at many, and then the occasional large adverse excursion delivers the KO. While I don’t need to swing at every pitch, I still need to step up to the plate every time. I realized a $350 loss on a strategy position today, but still managed a net realized gain on the day. Experiencing the losers is necessary to realize the winners.

Real-time Account Net Worth $102,864.24
Real-time Realized P/L (Today) $442.74
Real-time Unrealized P/L ($15.27)
Net Long Exp, 109%
Number of Positions 16
 
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