You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
Haggerty Entries
- Thread starter Maverick1
- Start date
To add-on to that (my estimates):Quote from Walther:
...but you are correct , there is not many reversal traders to begin with, even less here on ET .
1. 95% of users on ET don't even average one trade per day. Lots of wannabe's who may never get2be.
2. of the remaining 5%, 80% are not profitable. Lots of pretenders. I figure "80%" instead of higher # to make allowances for those who are "break even".
3. of the remaining 1%, 80% do not make a living solely from trading profits (i.e. no other income).
4. of the remaining 0.2%, 80% are lurkers with less than 100 posts.
So, based on 16,603 members, that means ET has 6 profitable day traders, who make their living solely from trading, who are regular posters.
I may be off plus or minus a few % points, but you get the cynical picture...
Tested all his methods. They suck. Simple as that.
And for some reason, he knows which "patterns" to take and which ones not to, it's common sense as he says.
Legendary? By who's standard? TM's marketing group? Conners? who says Haggerty is the smartest person he's ever talked to about the markets? C'mon......
I've never seen such a site that charges for breakouts of triangles.... really, who are they trying to kid. They have lose everyone over the years thats worth anything, saliba, baroden, and cooper to name a fews.
These guys piss me off, cause they hold them self so high yet all I see on their site is useless crap...
Oh now they have some ex-marine telling you how to think... see, the way out for them? Hey its not our methods? Its the way you think? And then they get to sell you one more 1000 dollar service...
Off on a tangent, but 123 lower bottoms and highs makes me laugh, he's taken the oldest pattern in the book, renamed it and sells it along with his parallel moves which are abc's....
Oh and another thing...
His volatiltiy bands... what a joke these are... why?
if 98% of the time the markets holds 2.0 standard deviations, from the previous close, then his thinking is that its a high probability trade if it touches the "2.0", makes a reversal, 123 or whatever... what he fails to tell you and the rest of his seminar junkies is that 80% of the time you never see the 2.0.... so that makes 20% of all days IF THAT that see that type of volatility, and from our tests, out of those 20% only 50% hold... edge? i see none...
nuff said, he's another promoter...
And for some reason, he knows which "patterns" to take and which ones not to, it's common sense as he says.
Legendary? By who's standard? TM's marketing group? Conners? who says Haggerty is the smartest person he's ever talked to about the markets? C'mon......
I've never seen such a site that charges for breakouts of triangles.... really, who are they trying to kid. They have lose everyone over the years thats worth anything, saliba, baroden, and cooper to name a fews.
These guys piss me off, cause they hold them self so high yet all I see on their site is useless crap...
Oh now they have some ex-marine telling you how to think... see, the way out for them? Hey its not our methods? Its the way you think? And then they get to sell you one more 1000 dollar service...
Off on a tangent, but 123 lower bottoms and highs makes me laugh, he's taken the oldest pattern in the book, renamed it and sells it along with his parallel moves which are abc's....
Oh and another thing...
His volatiltiy bands... what a joke these are... why?
if 98% of the time the markets holds 2.0 standard deviations, from the previous close, then his thinking is that its a high probability trade if it touches the "2.0", makes a reversal, 123 or whatever... what he fails to tell you and the rest of his seminar junkies is that 80% of the time you never see the 2.0.... so that makes 20% of all days IF THAT that see that type of volatility, and from our tests, out of those 20% only 50% hold... edge? i see none...
nuff said, he's another promoter...
Quote from OffShoreTrader:
Tested all his methods. They suck. Simple as that.
And for some reason, he knows which "patterns" to take and which ones not to, it's common sense as he says.
Legendary? By who's standard? TM's marketing group? Conners? who says Haggerty is the smartest person he's ever talked to about the markets? C'mon......
I've never seen such a site that charges for breakouts of triangles.... really, who are they trying to kid. They have lose everyone over the years thats worth anything, saliba, baroden, and cooper to name a fews.
These guys piss me off, cause they hold them self so high yet all I see on their site is useless crap...
Oh now they have some ex-marine telling you how to think... see, the way out for them? Hey its not our methods? Its the way you think? And then they get to sell you one more 1000 dollar service...
Off on a tangent, but 123 lower bottoms and highs makes me laugh, he's taken the oldest pattern in the book, renamed it and sells it along with his parallel moves which are abc's....
Oh and another thing...
His volatiltiy bands... what a joke these are... why?
if 98% of the time the markets holds 2.0 standard deviations, from the previous close, then his thinking is that its a high probability trade if it touches the "2.0", makes a reversal, 123 or whatever... what he fails to tell you and the rest of his seminar junkies is that 80% of the time you never see the 2.0.... so that makes 20% of all days IF THAT that see that type of volatility, and from our tests, out of those 20% only 50% hold... edge? i see none...
nuff said, he's another promoter...
Thanks for your thoughts. I'm not going to engage in a defense/critique of the methods personally, since that was not my intention in starting the thread. I wanted to get a feel for what people's experience had been. And you've been quite detailed in your response, so thanks for sharing your mind.
I get the sense that backtesting a method is vital to you. I understand why and agree that it's always and everywhere a very helpful and crucial thing to do. If you are so mechanical in your trading, then why does your signature say trading is an art?
I don't get what you mean by 'art'?
Mav.
is being creative, using your imagination, thinking and feeling freely, i believe thats a critical component to trading whether you are discretionary or mechanical like myself
Quote from traderkay:
u cant believe how im tired of all these fake gurus. is there anyone for real out there?
I can't agree with you more. There are so many people writing and selling and writing and selling, its comical that others can't see the transparency.
I've been trading for a long, long time, and I research like crazy, anything and everything so I can fall back on other quant edges or systems when others start failing.
It is sooooooo hard to find an edge. I program c++ as well as 4 in our team, where we search endlessly and tirelessly for correlations, systems, etc.... Once we find it, we in no way would sell it, promote it, or write about it. Why?
One edge, applied with discipline plan could reap millions for our fund or for ourselves over time. And we would sell it for 500 bucks to help a brotha out? Yea right.
Seriously, doubt everything you see out there. Do your own homework, and search diligently through books, articles, and people's writings. There ARE edges out there, it just isn't some 123 high or low or triangle breakout on a 5 min chart.
Or some confluence of fib #'s combined with a reversal bar, or shake n bake, with tick divergence, at the 1982 50% fib retracement....
Haggerty has over x different variables he looks at for a trade. Are you kidding? When can you get the mkt to line up with 10 variables? It's like putting an rsi, stoch, macd, 3 ma's, and obv all up and when they all DO THIS I buy..
I'm ranting right now, cause I can't believe how much money these guys make from people searching....
Quote from Maverick1:
..The lack of replies in this thread seems to suggest that there just aren't many reversal traders here on ET.
Is that right?
Mav.
Hi Mav...
Had you started the thread looking for Trend Reversal Traders or thoughts on such...
you probably would have gotten a bigger response.
I know for fact there are about 15 trend reversal traders (including myself) here at EliteTrader that I've met online in realtime chat rooms.
I don't know Haggerty nor his crew over at TM...
reason why I didn't pay much attention to this thread at first.
However, I am aware of his Slim Jim trade setup if he's the one that developed it.
(nothing wrong with the slim jim with some good trade management as with anything else)
Most of the trend reversal traders I know are using Japanese Candlesticks, divergence patterns and basic chart patterns like triangles, wedges...so many other good stuff.
Yet, in some ways you are correct...there aren't many traders out there that are trend reversal traders because of the stigma about trying to catch tops or bottoms.
In reality...most trend reversal traders I know don't care if its a reversal signal at a top or bottom...
in many ways...their not trying to pick tops and bottoms because when you review a higher chart interval...
most of the times its just a small trend within another trend.
Once you find that edge and are able to profit from it...stick to it...exploit it...
regardless what other traders are able to or aren't able to do with the same.
P.S. ET has slowed down a little lately...be a little more patient with waiting for responses.
NihabaAshi
Quote from NihabaAshi:
Hi Mav...
Had you started the thread looking for Trend Reversal Traders or thoughts on such...
you probably would have gotten a bigger response.
I know for fact there are about 15 trend reversal traders (including myself) here at EliteTrader that I've met online in realtime chat rooms.
I don't know Haggerty nor his crew over at TM...
reason why I didn't pay much attention to this thread at first.
However, I am aware of his Slim Jim trade setup if he's the one that developed it.
(nothing wrong with the slim jim with some good trade management as with anything else)
Most of the trend reversal traders I know are using Japanese Candlesticks, divergence patterns and basic chart patterns like triangles, wedges...so many other good stuff.
Yet, in some ways you are correct...there aren't many traders out there that are trend reversal traders because of the stigma about trying to catch tops or bottoms.
In reality...most trend reversal traders I know don't care if its a reversal signal at a top or bottom...
in many ways...their not trying to pick tops and bottoms because when you review a higher chart interval...
most of the times its just a small trend within another trend.
Once you find that edge and are able to profit from it...stick to it...exploit it...
regardless what other traders are able to or aren't able to do with the same.
P.S. ET has slowed down a little lately...be a little more patient with waiting for responses.
NihabaAshi
Hi NihabaAshi,
It was nice to read your comments. I've read a couple of your posts and always like your patience and the positive feel they have. After a year of being on ET, I'm getting a little tired the amazing negativity and acerbic tone that many have. But once in a while, someone shows elegance in stating his opinion, even if it differs from mine, and I learn from that.
I definitely would like to get a thread going for reversal traders. I know that many would probably jump in to criticize, but hopefully we can keep the sharing of ideas/thoughts to ourselves, or the little group that we have. The fact that you mentioned you only know 15 or so is very encouraging to me. We might have to pmessage, but that's fine with me.
I appreciate your statement about sticking with the edge, no matter what others say. In that respect, sometimes I think it's best not to tell others what or how you trade, because very rarely will someone understand the process through which you have come to use this or that setup or pattern.
The slim jim is haggerty's. He obviously did not 'invent' it, simply renamed it. It's a great setup if you know where in price and time to take it. That is a crucial factor in the overall success of the trade. Haggerty does not 'own' the pattern, it's been around as long as there have been markets. If he wants to call it slim jim or consolidation or flag or channel or tunnel, or blue cheese, I don't care. I just see the setup.
if you want to start a reversals thread, let me know and I'll definitely pitch in. Maybe we could talk about some candlesticks patterns with some pesavento patterns thrown in and fib and time ideas.
thanks,
mav.