Guru's pursuit of the Holy Grail

guru said:
I needed something that helps me decide when to make bullish bets, so I went over almost 1 billion stock trading strategies I've gathered over last few years and picked a few with 85%-90% accuracy (win rate), avg win larger than avg loss, never having a losing year and barely even having any losing months - since 2007. Are they overfit? Hell yeah, like the most overfit strategies you could think of :)
But the overfitting, in this case, comes mainly from inability to tell how much to buy and when to sell or stop, as those are additional unpredictable variables on top of already difficult to predict market direction. However, these strategies do seem to logically detect certain level of bullish market sentiment, and therefore may have a degree of predictable "power". We'll see, while I'm going to use them to make some option trades myself.
Also starting to Tweet them as reference trades for anyone else wanting to follow and see when the market conditions are ripe for bullish moves...
Here are some initial trades my (new) bot tweeted last night:

View attachment 245627

Ongoing stats /list of trades will be published here (free):
https://deustrader.com/zeus-longus-1.html

I'm also setting up separate Twitter account for these:
https://twitter.com/SentimentMarket
More...

Biggest game changer when trading SPY etc is religiously using the TRIN.

Trin > 1.5 = short bias
Trin < .7 = long bias
Trin near 1 = stay clear

Test it, you'll be impressed
 
KCalhoun said:
Biggest game changer when trading SPY etc is religiously using the TRIN.

Trin > 1.5 = short bias
Trin < .7 = long bias
Trin near 1 = stay clear

Test it, you'll be impressed
More...


Thanks, I was thinking about using it, but sometimes I'm getting opposite signals from my own SPY trading bot that is 90% accurate:
https://deustrader.com/zeus_longus_1.html
upload_2021-1-2_14-42-37.png

(though my bot learned to cheat by waiting for SPY to recover, which may not be a bad approach for averaging down SPY stock while trading it along the way, but isn't necessarily good for options. I may write about this later)

Generally there is no great predictor and if any signal is wrong then I may lose opportunities by not getting into a position, so I may actually buy when others are selling.
At least with options I can hedge, while also needing pullbacks just so I can enter new trades I've been waiting for. And I need to rely less on predicting stuff, but more on technical/mathematical/statistical odds.
 
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KCalhoun said:
Biggest game changer when trading SPY etc is religiously using the TRIN.

Trin > 1.5 = short bias
Trin < .7 = long bias
Trin near 1 = stay clear

Test it, you'll be impressed
More...

Trin was at 0.64 today while the market ripped down 2.5%.

Not impressed...
 
KCalhoun said:
Biggest game changer when trading SPY etc is religiously using the TRIN.

Trin > 1.5 = short bias
Trin < .7 = long bias
Trin near 1 = stay clear

Test it, you'll be impressed
More...

TRIN? is this a technical indicator?
 
I didn't want to post much recently, especially my performance, as I've traded some GME options couple weeks ago and was waiting (and still am) for those option prices to stabilize, and to be able to close them. Many show large profit, but aren't liquid enough to close positions, so I'm exiting slowly every day.
I'm also trying not to look at my account value/performance, so I can focus on each trade. Just checked today and was a bit surprised with the performance.

I actually didn't even plan to trade much in January and didn't have as many positions as I'd like, but still managed to do well, with profits trickling in from options on various stocks, ETFs and indexes, and without large losses anywhere.
My account shows being 20%+ up YTD, but it may be a bit less due to owning various illiquid options. While even my today's final YTD performance shown below at 25% is pretty much invalid due to brokers' inability to correctly calculate option prices, especially after bids/asks are pulled at market close.

upload_2021-2-12_14-24-11.png


upload_2021-2-12_14-38-5.png


upload_2021-2-12_15-1-49.png



Overall I can't complain, but I've been busy with a few other things and wish I had more time to work on trading and coding, because there is always more to do, to understand, and to discover.
In the past I've been rating my options strategies from 1-10, but as I improve my system and my understanding of options, I keep finding better and better strategies and running out of scale, now rating some setups at 11 and 12.
At this point I'm sure the Holy Grail exists, but it is still fluid and ever elusive. Currently I believe it comes down to containing the volatility and improving the stability of an options portfolio, while still being able to mix-in lots of options strategies. I'll get there when I can focus on this again, which will be soon.
 
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trend2009 said:
i also have clov and Tesla.the positions you are holding are only naked calls or other complex option legs?
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On CLOV I have basic call spreads for August, so it’s an unhedged bet, mainly because they didn’t have enough option strikes to play with.
On TSLA I have a few complex positions, playing it both ways, but the position can fluctuate a lot while I’m also testing a new strategy on it.
 
It's confirmed. The Holy Grail does exist (in options). And I have it.
I now possess the total and complete knowledge of the options universe, and have unsurpassed clarity and understanding of every options trading strategy that anyone can think of, as well as those that no one has thought of.
But I don't want to have to trade for the next 10+ years to multiply my account 100-fold, or whatever. So I'm going to sell it. For $1 billion. Watch me.
 
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