Guess the top of the pandemic

Pekelo

Pekelo

In this thread you can post your guess about when the daily death number in the USA will top and what that number will be. So we need a date and a number from you. The current death number is 2300 by the

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries (we will use this site)

My guess is 3500 on January 21st. We can easily go 50% higher than the current rater after Thanksgiving and Christmas, and I expect Christmas being the biggest super spreader event, thus the maximum death will come about 3 weeks after that. Trump will go out of office on a record.

After that the vaccine slowly start to show its effect among the population, assuming they start to vaccinate people mid-December. That and the ending of winter will bring the number down and eventually end the pandemic.
 
Looks like I undershot the numbers. I wanted to change it to 4100 a week after posting it, but didn't want to have more than one guess.

Right now the highest day was last Monday (12th) almost 4500 (probably catching up after the usual under reporting of the weekend), and it looks like the chart is peaking/topping. I have a feeling next week will be more like the going down curve of the top or the flattening, so we may not get a new higher high.

After next week the death numbers should slowly drop and go down to the low 3000s and below. The effects of vaccination specially among the elderly and weak should show up on the chart.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
 
Pekelo said:
Looks like I undershot the numbers. I wanted to change it to 4100 a week after posting it, but didn't want to have more than one guess.

Right now the highest day was last Monday (12th) almost 4500 (probably catching up after the usual under reporting of the weekend), and it looks like the chart is peaking/topping. I have a feeling next week will be more like the going down curve of the top or the flattening, so we may not get a new higher high.

After next week the death numbers should slowly drop and go down to the low 3000s and below. The effects of vaccination specially among the elderly and weak should show up on the chart.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
More...

There are reasons why the number may have topped or could top within the next couple weeks but I certainly would not count the vaccine as one of them.

Only 3.2 percent of the population have received even the first dose of the vaccine and the second is weeks away. And then even after the vaccination it takes several weeks for the antibodies to ramp up in a substantial way. And out of the 3.2 not many would have both contracted the disease and died from it anyway so preventing deaths in that group would result in a small reduction in the death rate. A week or two is going to be just way too early to expect to see the vaccine result in the data for the general population, maybe for elderly or front line worker specific populations in a month or so.

As I said though, I do think there are other reasons why the numbers might go down in the coming weeks but that is true for the non-vaccinated population as well. The number vaccinated is just very, very small right now.
 
Pekelo said:
I have a feeling next week will be more like the going down curve of the top or the flattening, so we may not get a new higher high.
More...

Looks like this is the case. Monday was 1500 deaths only, today is a bit over 2700 with 1 hour to go.

So last week was the virus' peak death, and the news is that infection numbers started to go down in 36 states. I don't think we will have another 4000 death day, looks like even number of the 3000+ days will be low, going forward.
 
Yesterday was the catch up day after the long MLK weekend, making it 4373 deaths, and my original guess date pretty good.(second highest day so far) I still think we have peaked and should be going down from here...
 
Last week 3 days over 4K, this week 2, with the 2nd and 3rd highest days. So although I was low on the number guess, I pretty much nailed the top prediction.
 
Monday the weekend catch up day is around 1900. If tomorrow (another catch up day) stays under 2500, then we dropped 40% in a week. That is a huge decrease, and a very good sign.
 
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That is 3 weeks after Xmas so it makes sense since many people gathered for the holidays ignoring common sense. Same peak occurred after Thanksgiving I bet.
 
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