Guess The Gold Bottom... I'm saying 850

Quote from sumosam:

I sold off my short gold position to-day. Thought we might be in for a breather
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...yes, what you are saying is that Gold may rise on Friday...well, you might be right...why?...read this as of 5:01PM EST thursday...read please...

"with the way MSFT is tanking in after hours on Thursday and depending on the consumer sentiment at 10:00AM EST friday morning...the market could give back all the gains from today...honestly, was this a 'fake' bull day only to cave into the bears tomorrow...serious concerns for 10:00:01AM(EST)...please weigh in..."
 
Quote from increasenow:

...yes, what you are saying is that Gold may rise on Friday...well, you might be right...why?...read this as of 5:01PM EST thursday...read please...

"with the way MSFT is tanking in after hours on Thursday and depending on the consumer sentiment at 10:00AM EST friday morning...the market could give back all the gains from today...honestly, was this a 'fake' bull day only to cave into the bears tomorrow...serious concerns for 10:00:01AM(EST)...please weigh in..."
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i'm holding my short position for now... there could be a surprise next week at the fed meeting that could push gold lower...
 
Quote from PaulRon:

care to explain what fundamental reasons there are for a bear market in gold?
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easy...Euro cannot maintain 1.60 level...Oil will tank soon and be back to normal $70, $80 levels...as noted, DOW,SP soaring again...earning s are proving better and the 'credit crisis'...what 'credit crisis':D !!
 
Quote from PaulRon:

don't forget gold's been in a raging bull market for over 5 years. while 800 is still somewhat possible to maintain the bull market status, 600 will essentially push it into a bear market... care to explain what fundamental reasons there are for a bear market in gold?
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I was a raging gold bull for 2 decades...due to the fundamental weakness of the usd, and fiat currencies in general.

I don't know that there are necessarily any fundamental reasons for gold's collapse, but I do find Elliott Wave and Gann very instructive in predicting market cycles. Gold is in a wave 3 downtrend. All I know is that fundamentals are less important than market psychology, and market cycles.

Perhaps, the only explanation I can think of is the fact that we have had asset inflation (or over valuation) in all asset classes. This is not usually the case. Gold was simply the last man at the party. I also believe we will go into a deflationary spiral vs inflation.
 
As bad as the econ news was today, I'm amazed the dollar rallied at all.

The only number that wasn't absolutely abysmal was the jobless claims, but it was still 10% higher than last year.
 
One can only speculate what the actual gold trade(large bullion dealers) thinks about future price action, and that would be a good place to look for wisdom. Even though I trade grains for a living, I've found that the grain trade is remarkably accurate in it's forecasts. I would assume the gold trade is as erudite.
 
Amazing isn't?

Quote from thriftybob:

As bad as the econ news was today, I'm amazed the dollar rallied at all.

The only number that wasn't absolutely abysmal was the jobless claims, but it was still 10% higher than last year.
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Consumer attitudes the worst in 26 years.

Oh well, maybe printing another $160 billion and handing it out ike so much confetti will cheer people up.

They can gets some $4 gas and a bag of rice if they are early enough in line.
 
Ever think you may have missed the plot? You reiterate continuously information that EVERYONE is already aware of. Markets don't move on information that everyone already knows.

Try to imagine what sort of NEW information may move Gold higher. Any ideas? I have a few ideas.


Quote from thriftybob:

Consumer attitudes the worst in 26 years.

Oh well, maybe printing another $160 billion and handing it out ike so much confetti will cheer people up.

They can gets some $4 gas and a bag of rice if they are early enough in line.
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