Guaranteed money on Oil?

M

Mut1ey

A friend of mine has for the last 2 years made a fair amount of money (£8000+ last year and £14000+ this) from buying options at this time of year, based on the expectation that the price of oil increases as the US residents gear up for vacations over easter etc.

Now, my view is that this seems very simplistic. Are seasonalities that predictable?

Mutts
 
Quote from Mut1ey:

A friend of mine has for the last 2 years made a fair amount of money (£8000+ last year and £14000+ this) from buying options at this time of year, based on the expectation that the price of oil increases as the US residents gear up for vacations over easter etc.

Now, my view is that this seems very simplistic. Are seasonalities that predictable?

Mutts
More...

I don't follow it that closely, but on 60 Minutes last night, Bob Woodward recounted a promise made by Saudi Prince Bandar last year to ensure lower oil prices heading into the election in exchange for Bush's commitment to finally "take care of" Saddam. So seasonalities may not hold this year due to exogenous circumstances.
 
Cheers for the info, but he has already made £14k+ with this approach this year (i.e. within the last month). My friend has only held to options for a matter of a couple of weeks in both cases.
 
Quote from Mut1ey:

A friend of mine has for the last 2 years made a fair amount of money (£8000+ last year and £14000+ this) from buying options at this time of year, based on the expectation that the price of oil increases as the US residents gear up for vacations over easter etc.

Now, my view is that this seems very simplistic.
Are seasonalities that predictable?

Mutts
More...

==============

Mutts;
I would certainly use words like probaiblities & helpful;
& important numbers like


6x12
===
72 hours work/ week but derivatives add to the complexity.:cool:

Nickname Jack Frost has & may help again in any market.
 
Cheers for the info, but he has already made £14k+ with this approach this year (i.e. within the last month). My friend has only held to options for a matter of a couple of weeks in both cases.
 
Hello Dollars,

I saw that myself. I was thinking of a Fall expiring spread that would play a drop. I was going to do that homework later tonight, but if any of you guys who trade the oil contracts have a suggestion that would save me some time, I would appreciate it.

Do you guys just spread the CL, or is there a better way?

Thanks
 
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