GRPN and lockup expiry

m22au · Nov 7, 2011

GRPN sold 35 million shares at $20, but there are another 600 million shares that will be available for sale at the end of a 180 day lockup period.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1490281/000104746911009142/a2206165z424b4.htm

(refer page 149)

http://www.timeanddate.com/date/dateadd.html
I calculate that date to be Wednesday 2 May 2012.

I'll be looking to short GRPN in late April 2012.

**

Total class A shares outstanding
635,403,352

publicly traded float
35 million

Lintagoose · Nov 7, 2011

I wouldn't worry about the lock-up play. It will 1.) be under 10$ or 2.) do a massive secondary before the lock-up expiration.

m22au · Nov 22, 2011

Just bookmarking an old thread by Pekelo about GRPN

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=222051&highlight=groupon

"Groupon Is a Straight-Up Ponzi Scheme"

Arnie · Nov 23, 2011

"Ponzi" is over the top. But the whole business model is suspect.

m22au · Nov 23, 2011

Quote from Arnie:

"Ponzi" is over the top. But the whole business model is suspect.

I agree. The thread discusses the "ponzi scheme" angle (with which I disagree), but it also discusses the dubious nature of the business model.

m22au · Dec 28, 2011

May Day Looms Large For Groupon

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204296804577124833343029236.html

Looking ahead, Groupon and Zynga shareholders have lockups expiring on May 1 and May 28, respectively. Shareholders, already suffering lackluster performance, will have to mark their calendars.

Daal · Dec 28, 2011

Problem with shorting GRPN is the massive borrow rates you have to pay. The market markers are cleaning up on the bid ask spread of the single stock futures, the longs are collecting a lot of fee income by lending out their shares. Its the short sellers that are paying for the party

Daal · Dec 28, 2011

With this kinds of borrow rates there is not much room to be wrong

m22au · Dec 28, 2011

You're right Daal, that's why I'm waiting until April to open a short position

Rodney King · Dec 28, 2011

What a clever boy!... No doubt you're the only person in the financial markets aware of the lockup expiry.