Growth of Equity

[bwolinsky]

Quote from gg12:

[BI've re-read the Kelly formular, [/B]

It's idiotic to think the Kelly formulas help in trading decisions. In games of chance they apply, not when you have edge as in trading, unless you have no edge and it doesn't look like you do so I guess you can think it's helping you when it's not.

 

[gg12]

+5.9% on Friday
+4.5% today

Risk was ca. 50% of the account, with a loosing probability of ca. 10%.

 

[gg12]

+6.5%
Greed, risk of 55% of the capital to achieve that result.
Plan should be make more secure gains.

 

[gg12]

Hi bwolinsky,

thank you for your post and sorry about my late reply.

I think what I am doing is participaton in a game of chance. Kelly helps, if I want to achieve geometic growth. The difficulty is to trade when there is no edge. According the Kelly criterion one should not bet when there is no edge.

But rather than giving up, I want to show that it is possible to achieve long lasting success. Sometimes I am still too greedy. Sometimes I am not respecting trends, etc.

Overall I think I am getting better every day and I aim developing a measurable edge in the future (better adapting to market conditions).

Regards,

gg12