GrowleyMonster's Sorta Journal

Wow WTF happened at 1110 this morning? Did Elbonia have a successful nuclear test in Baltimore? Looks like I will be holding a bunch of stuff for a few days. I should have had TVIX and SQQQ on speed dial. Holding LUV, AMD, and I got 200 shares of BYND that I will probably sell out of at closing no matter what.

Tried trading TVIX and SQQQ but I got in too late for the real action there. So right now I am down almost $3k. That's what I get for not paying attention to the news.

I just cancelled my stop orders on those stocks. LUV and AMD will have to come back from the grave. I don't ahve as much faith in BYND. I was looking pretty good this morning, $1k+ up. Then disaster. I bet it was those tarrifs. Well they will probably be good for us in the long run. Ahhhh... AMD and LUV are twitching a little. Even BYND looks like it has hit bottom. TVIX and SQQQ have settled back down so that is a good sign for bulls.

Hah I just happened to be holding LABD and forgot about it. Made $175 on it. Yay. Holding one position on BYND until it breaks $160 or I get bored. Might take a few days. So I have temporarily converted to swing trading.

Every time I think TIVX and SQQQ are running out of steam finally, they rally hard. If it was just overnight I would probably hold a couple hundred shares of each til morning but over the weekend? No way, Jose.

I can take solace in the certain knowledge that there were plenty other traders that got hit harder than I did. I can also kick myself for getting hit harder than the smart guys who went bear as soon as SPY dropped a quarter. I am gonna see if I can't set a hotkey to specifically buy TVIX and/or SQQQ no matter what chart I am active on. Could come in handy if we ever get a "correction" like this again.

Well I see things are improving in the post market. Shoulda held LUV. GF bought LUV this morning as well, but she bought to hold so she has been highly amused at my agitated state today. She is working from home today so she has tormented me mercilessly about my day trading. Between online meetings and naps. No naps for the G Monster today.

Well I feel like I just went 10 rounds with Mike Tyson and I am still standing but the bell was a relief of sorts. I will check my holdings premarket Monday and decide what to do next, if anything. I got a lot of stuff to do anyhow. I got work to do on the truck, on both boats, around the house, in the shop.... I had no idea I would be so damn busy when I retired. I thought you were supposed to take it easy.

Figured out an interesting indicator on TradingView. I took the Volume Weighted Moving Average at 3 and at 6 and put them on the chart not as lines only, but as areas with breaks. One is red, the other is blue, and opacity is about 50%. Where they overlap is purple and is to be ignored. But where one peeks out from the other is very interesting. During the course of the day or whatever, first the red is peeking out, then the blue, then the red, yadda yadda. The blue coincides with an upward trend, and the trend has its roots where the red still showed but was getting narrower as it approached the crossover. And vice versa for the downward trend with red showing, that first begins as the blue gets narrow when it approaches the crossover. So it is like a moving average crossover except it is a crossover of Volume Weighted Moving Averages, which is usually more relevant than price-only moving averages, and more flexible than just VWAP which correct me if I am wrong, sort of resets itself every day and can't be set to a particular number of bars. I am not relying heavily on it yet but it is fun to play around with.

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I think of the narrowing of the peeking color as an omen, and the actual crossover as the confirmation. But I applied this to about 30 different stocks last night and if you traded by that perfectly, you would have made some money, mostly winners, hardly ever losers. Think of it as a Redneck Ichimoku. See blue, buy, if you haven't already. Blue disappears, sell. It lags by a candle and a half or so, but if I tighten it up to like 1 and 2, it gets all jaggy and messed up. 3 and 6 looks real nice. I will fool around with other periods but too long and it lags too much to be really useful.

Okay now I deserve a beer. I am still drinking the Block Party Amber Ale I made a couple weeks ago. I am really liking it, neighbors and GF liking it too, so I will do another keg in a couple of weeks. Got a high yellow ale, sort of like a lager but without the second fermentation, going right now. Not sure if I will like it or not. I steeped a couple pounds of crushed malted rye in the wort, just to do something different, and 3oz of Williamette hops pellets, with a light golden malt extract for the base. Should have a very American taste, which I admit I rather like. Maybe I should start a beer brewing thread... I am getting off topic. But hey it is my thread, right? LOL
 
Looks like holding BYND over the weekend was a good idea. Made back most of my loss. Then proceeded to lose a bit more. Finished $331 in the green and I am holding TQQQ overnight, and it is looking pretty good right now. But I think it is BYND that I should have held. Just as soon as I sold off it shot up $2. Pretty rocky day today. Lots of chop. Kept trying to scalp TVIX and SQQQ and all I did was make my broker more money. I am definitely getting the hang of playing BYND, showing $1478 in the green. Nearly everything else I lost a bit.

OOPS I am still holding 200 shares of LUV, too, but that should work out okay. It's got plenty of room up top. My DIY indicator makes it to be a solid BUY on the 5 minute range and it is only 45 cents above the low of the day.

It felt like damage control, today. Tomorrow things should be more peaceful. Unfortunately I have a lot of stuff to do tomorrow related to my union pension and my health care so I may have to trade on my phone, or not trade at all. Since I have not really traded on the phone yet, I think I will just check on the trading computer and sell all, or hold all, and go to the union hall and get my stuff done, then check again when I get home. Got work to do on the truck... I have to replace the driver side door pins and bushings. I need to replace the windshield too but it is gonna be REALLY heavy and awkward so I may take it to a glass shop and let the pros do it. But fixing the doors and winshield leaves only one thing to do, maintenance wise, and that's finding a backup automatic transmission to rebuild for a spare. When the engine gives out, you can just about figure the automatic transmission is about to go, too. OMG I hate those things. Massive failure point. A regular standard transmission is so much less trouble. Replace the clutch pack every 200k miles or so, unless you are like me and you actually know how to drive, then they last a lot longer. Anyway it is what it is. The new engine is running good. So we have spent $5k and now have about a $7k truck, but one with no mysteries, so that is worth another $1k to me.

Hmmm P&L dipped a little but is coming back up. I think my plan is working okay.

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Held TQQQ overnight, sold in the premarket for a nice gain. Still holding 200 shares LUV which isn't trading I guess until the opening bell. Anyway I'm up $265 for the morning so far, and up $584.90 total since the close yesterday. BYND is up $4 from the close, I see. Shoulda held that instead of LUV but I figured holding TQQQ was risk enough.
 
GrowleyMonster said:
Held TQQQ overnight, sold in the premarket for a nice gain. Still holding 200 shares LUV which isn't trading I guess until the opening bell. Anyway I'm up $265 for the morning so far, and up $584.90 total since the close yesterday. BYND is up $4 from the close, I see. Shoulda held that instead of LUV but I figured holding TQQQ was risk enough.
More...
Don't EVER hold BYND overnight Growley. I don't care if you do miss a $5 move or whatever. LUV... yeah ok. Holding 200 overnight won't kill ya. If it gaps down it'll eventually come back but BYND.... man its established a classic H&S. Its overvalued af and the only reason its this high is because the float is so small and the short interest is so high.

BYND has established a classic H&S. Its not going much higher. Maybe $173 if its lucky. It'll retest $145, and then the bottom should fall out. Here's the deal though, when the bottom does fall out, its going to come without warning. It'll be a swift and brutal fall to $100. Its gonna happen, the question is when. I would not sleep at night being long this thing in a $50K account. You're playing Russian roulette if you hold BYND overnight Growley. You may get lucky 10 times.... but that eleventh time is gonna kill ya dead.
I don't care how many up gaps you miss... don't hold BYND overnight. Ever. jmho

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Edit: And I know as soon as I say this it'll probably head to $200, but I don't care.... its still gambling. You're playing against machines and no T/A can predict the next move. To think otherwise is foolish. The stock is worth $100 tops.
 
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I'll tell ya what though Growley.. as these things go, it probably is going higher.
Why don't you buy just 30 shares and hold them. Put a $145 stop underneath, forget you even have them, and trade other stuff. That would be a good move in a $50K account.
 
H&S? You mean Head and Shoulders pattern?

Yeah you are probably right about BYND. I got away with it once. Once. And yeah it will probably tank pretty soon though somebody reputable (don't remember who, some big investment bank) rated it at $188. So sure if it dives to the bottom I might pick it back up. But it's like bitcoin. Fashionable. you just got to wonder when the other shoe will drop and the public will get disenchanted. Maybe people will start having four armed cyclops babies from eating that stuff, who knows.

I am going with the scanner this morning at the open, probably look for some gapping pharma stocks and see if I can get in on some ABCD or bull flag momentum type action. It always treated me well before and it looks like the markets are returning to normal. Haven't checked SPY yet but TQQQ has been trending up in the premarket so that's a good sign, TVIX going down too. Maybe today will be business as usual, with a bit of bullish influence?

Couldn't resist. Bought some more TQQQ, it is making such a pretty uptrend and nice volume for premarket. Just locked it in with a stop at the break even. Okay time to start watching stuff.
 
Yeah head and shoulders.
I don't know if you saw it, but yesterday KFC announced the rollout of a Beyond chicken product. That news didn't hurt that's for sure, but for real, who the hell eats there anyway ya know. Certainly not millennial vegan's. Burger King (NYSE:QSR) also rolled out the nationwide release of an Impossible (the other player in fake meat) Whopper this week. I might try one for fun. Point is that should have helped BYND too. I expect one more hoorah on the stock (another squeeze) and then the big drop. You can't really short it, the borrow rate is like 60%.

Sounds like you're doing well though Growley. Keep it up. Trade small. :fistbump:

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KFC Launches Plant-Based Beyond Fried Chicken
The fried chicken chain will test Beyond Meat’s chicken—available as nuggets or boneless wings—at one restaurant in Atlanta before considering a nationwide rollout.
by Anna Starostinetskaya

August 26, 2019

21,739 Shares
Starting August 27, Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) will introduce plant-based Beyond Fried Chicken at one test restaurant located on Cobb Parkway, in Atlanta, GA. The new option will feature chicken made by vegan brand Beyond Meat in two styles: as nuggets served with a choice of dipping sauce (the Sweet N Tangy is vegan-friendly) and as boneless wings tossed in Nashville Hot, Buffalo, or Honey BBQ sauces (none of which are vegan-friendly). “KFC Beyond Fried Chicken is so delicious, our customers will find it difficult to tell that it’s plant-based,” Kevin Hochman, president and chief concept officer for KFC United States, said. “I think we’ve all heard ‘it tastes like chicken’—well our customers are going to be amazed and say, ‘it tastes like Kentucky Fried Chicken.’” Customers can order the Beyond Fried Chicken nuggets as part of a six- or 12-piece combo meal (which includes a side and a medium drink) for $6.49 and $8.49, respectively, or four pieces à la carte for $1.99, while the Beyond Fried Chicken wings can be ordered in six or 12-piece options for $6 and $12 plus tax. “KFC is an iconic part of American culture and a brand that I, like so many consumers, grew up with,” Beyond Meat CEO and founder Ethan Brown said. “To be able to bring Beyond Fried Chicken, in all of its KFC-inspired deliciousness to market, speaks to our collective ability to meet the consumer where they are and accompany them on their journey. My only regret is not being able to see the legendary Colonel himself enjoy this important moment.” KFC will consider a national rollout of the new item based on feedback from the Atlanta test restaurant—where customers can sample the Beyond Fried Chicken for free tomorrow with the purchase of another menu item.
 
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