GrowleyMonster's Sorta Journal

I had a full plate today. Tonight I am holding a bunch of energy stocks and I might hold them for a while. Oil/gas is looking really good and three quality companies with a lot going for them seem to be way undervalued. HOS provides supply boats and "floatels" offshore. They are not as big as Tidewater or even Chouest but they have a lot of good contracts and I personally know of some that they have with Shell. NE has some great looking prospects. They are cash starved right now but when Leviathan comes online they will be in good shape to further develop holdings in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea. With a bit of decent management and continued price increases in oil and gas, I think they are going to do VERY well. MDR is having some difficulties and is looking at a restructure, and this company has been in the patch for a long time and is a big name, actually the biggest, in offshore construction. Their stock took a beating from the news but looks like it is on the mend. McDermott is NOT going away. Made a booboo and bought a bunch of PHUN yesterday, still waiting for it to come back up over two bucks and I will probably get rid of it then. Might hang on to some and catch the upside of the next big play on it but I am really not thinking much of it right now.

The Saudi slowdown is probably going to last longer than a lot of people realize, and proven fields in the Gulf are going to see some activity. Pump prices are up almost 20 cents here in New Orleans, and we are surrounded by refineries so I am feeling bullish on oil for sure. HES is looking good, too.

Van, I will be watching your two tips in the premarket. Especially Chipotle. I hate that place and would love to have reason to help drive their stock into the grass with a short position, and profit from their misery. Same with Autozone. They suck. I always go to CarQuest or NAPA for parts. O'Reilly as a last resort. AZO can kiss my chrome plated bumper hitch. So yeah if they look good for a short play in the morning I will be on them like white on rice.

PHUN pulled me down hard but thanks to HOS and MDR, I finished +$240 today. I had hopes for steel to give a twitch upward but no joy. Was watching CROX and some other stuff, thinking I will go long on BAC when it hits bottom. It went up like 11% in the first three weeks of the month and it seems to do a lot of that.
 
GrowleyMonster said:
I had a full plate today. Tonight I am holding a bunch of energy stocks and I might hold them for a while. Oil/gas is looking really good and three quality companies with a lot going for them seem to be way undervalued. HOS provides supply boats and "floatels" offshore. They are not as big as Tidewater or even Chouest but they have a lot of good contracts and I personally know of some that they have with Shell. NE has some great looking prospects. They are cash starved right now but when Leviathan comes online they will be in good shape to further develop holdings in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea. With a bit of decent management and continued price increases in oil and gas, I think they are going to do VERY well. MDR is having some difficulties and is looking at a restructure, and this company has been in the patch for a long time and is a big name, actually the biggest, in offshore construction. Their stock took a beating from the news but looks like it is on the mend. McDermott is NOT going away. Made a booboo and bought a bunch of PHUN yesterday, still waiting for it to come back up over two bucks and I will probably get rid of it then. Might hang on to some and catch the upside of the next big play on it but I am really not thinking much of it right now.

The Saudi slowdown is probably going to last longer than a lot of people realize, and proven fields in the Gulf are going to see some activity. Pump prices are up almost 20 cents here in New Orleans, and we are surrounded by refineries so I am feeling bullish on oil for sure. HES is looking good, too.

Van, I will be watching your two tips in the premarket. Especially Chipotle. I hate that place and would love to have reason to help drive their stock into the grass with a short position, and profit from their misery. Same with Autozone. They suck. I always go to CarQuest or NAPA for parts. O'Reilly as a last resort. AZO can kiss my chrome plated bumper hitch. So yeah if they look good for a short play in the morning I will be on them like white on rice.

PHUN pulled me down hard but thanks to HOS and MDR, I finished +$240 today. I had hopes for steel to give a twitch upward but no joy. Was watching CROX and some other stuff, thinking I will go long on BAC when it hits bottom. It went up like 11% in the first three weeks of the month and it seems to do a lot of that.
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Yeah CMG today after I said that dropped to like $839, then it did its thing and ran up to $849. It closed at $843. Bottom line on it is its going to act this way and if you try to time it with a decent sized position you'll get hurt. That's why I suggested a small number of shares because I know you are only playing with $40K or so. You can't swing for the fences Growley, you have to take base hits. 20 shares sounds like "yeah whatever", but believe me, that's the way to do it with what you are hoping to accomplish and the money you are using. Getting in and out during the day will chew you up and will lead to substantial losses. You must use time. Stocks that make the biggest moves eventually are ALL difficult to game. CMG is overvalued. Unlike you, I like the place. Their traffic is down however. I love how Cramer and the other various talking heads pump their "digital sales". Well yeah... bfd... eventually those cannibalize the walk in traffic. Only so many people are going to have Chipoltes for lunch/dinner in a given day. Its overvalued AF. One caveat which I have mentioned here on ET a million times.... China. If or when they ever announce that... anybody thats short will fry. And like I have also said a million times... the CEO came from YUM and he is very well versed in what it takes to get a major food chain rolling over there.

AZO is a huge pig. Its their share buybacks that constantly keep the stock so high. They won't let it drop.... but mark my word, they need to be trading at a multiple of about 12 tops. Right now they are at 22 with a forward estimated at 17. There's no growth there. Overhead is off the charts. As is competition. One of these days either ORLY, Advanced, or AZO is gonna go tits up. There's way too many of them. And they're all empty for the most part. I look, I pay attention to that kind of stuff. We'll see what they do tomorrow. But don't even think about taking a position short just yet, unless they spike $90 premarket. Then it'll be ok.

MDR.... yeah you sent me down a rabbit-hole there. I kinda agree with what you are saying.... but stocks don't drop like that for no reason. I can assure you it won't be $6 by the end of next year. Its gonna establish a range down here... it'll move on news... but its gonna be range-bound for quite awhile.

Don't play AZO intraday... its a tricky stock. Both it and CMG will take time to pay off. That's why you short just a little... and let time do its thing. 20 shares of CMG is $4000 profit 4u when it hits $600. ;)
 
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As my posts go... this is one of my personal favorites.
I made this post about 2 1/2 years ago... and it played out well. They all dropped nicely at the time. But they have bounced back.
Look at all 3 maps. Look at the competition. Think about the overhead. Taxes, lights, employee's.
Then consider 1 hour delivery by AMZN.
And every city is like this.
AZO is a huge pig.
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/azo.306182/#post-4395374
 
I dropped PHUN for a -$161 loss. Good riddance. My 4000 shares of MDR took a nice 10% climb, then the TQQQ dropped a buck and now I have a temporary setback across the board. I am thinking from the sudden upward price action that MDR must have scrambled desperately and called in some favors won themselves a fat contract. HOS and NE dropped in the premarket and first hour but I expected that. I am in the three I currently hold for a multi day or more likely a multi week thing. Right now I am down -$875 but as soon as TVIX stops climbing I think everything will work out really nice. Meanwhile with the market falling it looks like a good time for a short position in AZO. I only took 10 shares. Not usually a bearish guy LOL. Moved my stop loss just above the last new higher high and my target at 1000.

DARN. slip of the mouse. I canceled my perfectly set up bracket order. Sokay. Once it is deep into profitability I will just hang a $20 trailing stop on it and let it go.

AZO.png

AZO, from 0930 on the 19th. I like that trajectory. I should have taken a position at the bell, but I had my hands full. Okay gotta check my watchlist and see what's shakin.
 
10 more shares AZO. That brings my avg purchase price down but that's okay, looks like it has a lot of room to fall further. So now long 4k shares MDR, HOS, and NE. Short 20 on AZO and short 10 on CMG. Bought 200 shares BAC. Looks good for a few bucks.
Screenshot from 2019-09-24 10-58-17.png


And there it goes. Hopefully a nice little half percent reversal.
 
AZO is making a threatening move upward but I am gonna trust the trend. Same with CMG. Okay BAC wasn't ready. Stopped out for a $20 loss. I will keep watching it.

Bought 1000 shares EROS. Trending nicely but it has fooled me before. Ah. AZO and CMG are easing back down. Nice. I was going to limit my loss on AZO to under $100 which would be a 50 cent stop loss. EROS is into the green. Just a question of whether or not it will break out above $3. If it does it won't stop at $3.14. It will go to $3.30 or $3.60. My buy was $2.855 so that will be a nice profit. If it stops at $3, well, I'll take that, too. I am encouraged that it is trending up even as TQQQ goes down and TVIX is reaching for the stars. I move my stop up into the green usually when 9EMA moves into the green, on uptrending stocks. I currently only use one indicator in my TWS setup, Bollinger Bands at 9EMA and 2 standard deviations. Works well for me. It is almost a complete strategy in one package.
 
TQQQ is really in a slide. If it gets down to $56 I am loading up with it. I am pretty sure it is headed down to at least $58. Good for my short positions. Bad for my long ones. Plenty of time for my long positions to recover except EROS. There. Just stopped out for a $70 loss. Now only holding long on MDR, HOS, and NE, all suffering along with the rest of the market.

Bought 200 shares SQQQ. Why not? Probably headed for at least $34. I set an 18 cent trailing stop on it once it was well into the green. Fire and forget.
 

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Ah there's my arch nemesis BYND down in the dirt. I think it is about ready for a run up to $165 or so.

HAH! I KNEW it wouldn't go below $140 and for once it is following the market. In for 100 shares. SQQQ Stopped out for $30 profit.
 
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