i don't know other than not all breakouts are created equal. also, my win rate on breakouts may very well be 35-40% and other trades make up the 30-35%. money isn't made or lost until one exits the trade. i think too, that market context can make a difference in trade outcome. i.e., which swing within the trend the breakout occurs, support/resistance, market internals, etc. but yes, it's not just breakouts. if there's a good pullback setup, i will take it at support if other factors make it a favorable trade. e.g., pullback to prior resistance turned support, pivot level, MA confluence with fib and price action.
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- Thread starter Phil-n-Texas
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Ah yes, forgot to add some context. Breakouts usually have around 35-40% win rates if trades are managed in a trend-following way (i.e. stop is trailed), provided the stop is not too close (or you'll get even lower win rate).
It seems you are doing everything!
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took a short today and will post some more on it later. only 1 contract on MNQ but will explain my reasoning on why i didn't take 3 contracts based on my risk formula.
People like to be entertained. 10 guys bet big, 9 will never post again after blowing out. 1 will succeed for the time being and everyone will cheer him on.
thought i would post update while i have a moment. still short but might be at a decision point as price has retraced back to my original reward assessment level (prior day hi 9369) which had this trade at slightly better than 1:1. regardless, my stop has moved below breakeven so it's a winning trade no matter and it was a counter-trend trade to begin with, so check box in column against it as well.
took a bunch of screen shots and will try to post with commentary before i forget anything.
60 minute
1st pic on 60m showing initial entry with SL and PT. note, PT is sitting on top of prior day hi indicator so the chart trader marker obscures it but you'll be able to see it in subsequent pics.
notice confluence of my initial target choice some what reinforced with 20ema. additionally one could take a chance on a double-top off the R1 pivot (ETH). not necessarily the greatest setup but at the time it seemed like the best option and fade the 20ema or sit it out.
notice confluence of my initial target choice some what reinforced with 20ema. additionally one could take a chance on a double-top off the R1 pivot (ETH). not necessarily the greatest setup but at the time it seemed like the best option and fade the 20ema or sit it out.
30m chart on RTH after moving stop to BE. seeing a possible gap fill and eyeing central pivot at 9314.25. again, confluence of 20ema on 30m RTH chart with other factors from 60m ETH chart which will be further detailed.
market internals early on. VIX negative but not enough to weigh much on my decisions. i.e., when it's between +/- 4% there doesn't seem to be much conviction.
here, i've moved my PT down to central pivot on RTH @ 9314ish and will play my SL close if things change. they always do.
