Grizzly Bear Turned Bull!
- Thread starter N54_Fan
- Start date
Why are you bearish at bottoms, and bullish at tops?
A tough thing one can do in markets is to be systematically bearish at bottoms, and bullish at tops. It is almost as tough as finding a person who can "s*it from his head", and "think from his a*s".
Why do you talk out of your ass? I was not short at the bottom and did not become bullish at the top dumn fuck. Unlike you I actually trade with REAL money and would be happy to show that I have made over 53% in the last year in 2 separate accounts. In fact my return over the last year is ~61%. The statement below was through 10-31-11, in which 10-2011 was my worst month in ~1 year. Since the middle of Nov. I am up an additional 7.8%. You just have to take my word for it.
There is nothing wrong with being long when the market is going higher as long as you know when to reverse course appropriately. Something I am sure you know NOTHING about because you do NOT trade. Let see your returns this last 12 months. I am sure you will ingnore and not respond because not only are you an idiot but you are a coward as well.
So, before you open your mouth remember "it is better to keep your mouth shut and make people wonder about your stupidity than to open it and remove ALL doubt".
N54,
I read your original Post where you state:
ââ¬Â¦I have my line in the sand set at 1158.66 (low of 2 weeks ago) as when I will say I am proven wrong and will resume my bearish stance. For now this grizzly bear has turned bull...
Then later:
ââ¬Â¦It is OK to be wrong as long as you trade what you see and not what you believe!
Bull turned Bear again....
Please let me clarify how the bulls and bears term is used by an old timer. I have swing traded and position traded for several decades. I do the same type of analysis you do using multiple time frames. The problem I have with ETers shouting Bull or Bear is the context which they use these terms. I use the old classic definitions.
I have always represented the long term and intermediate term probable trend from monthly or weekly index charts to call myself a bull or a bear. If the monthly chart of the indexes is still making higher highs and higher lows then it matches ââ¬Åthe classicââ¬Â description of a long term bull. So I am still longer term bull when trading positions. The weekly chart of the indexes is now making lower highs so it matches the classic description of an intermediate term bear or for some a short tem bearish for trading swings.
So how do I trade this long term? I have stock positions that I am trading longer term from S&P 1160. If the S& P stays above 1175 ââ¬â 1180 area I will stay longer term bullish about them and not liquidate them.
So how do I trade this short term? I have just liquidated long stock swing trades and now have new short swing trades from the 1225 ââ¬â 1228 area. So I am short term bearish.
Do you use a similar method? Or if you use a better one please explain?
P.S. I just saw you returns! Congratulations. Anything over 30% in a year is excellent!!
I read your original Post where you state:
ââ¬Â¦I have my line in the sand set at 1158.66 (low of 2 weeks ago) as when I will say I am proven wrong and will resume my bearish stance. For now this grizzly bear has turned bull...
Then later:
ââ¬Â¦It is OK to be wrong as long as you trade what you see and not what you believe!
Bull turned Bear again....
Please let me clarify how the bulls and bears term is used by an old timer. I have swing traded and position traded for several decades. I do the same type of analysis you do using multiple time frames. The problem I have with ETers shouting Bull or Bear is the context which they use these terms. I use the old classic definitions.
I have always represented the long term and intermediate term probable trend from monthly or weekly index charts to call myself a bull or a bear. If the monthly chart of the indexes is still making higher highs and higher lows then it matches ââ¬Åthe classicââ¬Â description of a long term bull. So I am still longer term bull when trading positions. The weekly chart of the indexes is now making lower highs so it matches the classic description of an intermediate term bear or for some a short tem bearish for trading swings.
So how do I trade this long term? I have stock positions that I am trading longer term from S&P 1160. If the S& P stays above 1175 ââ¬â 1180 area I will stay longer term bullish about them and not liquidate them.
So how do I trade this short term? I have just liquidated long stock swing trades and now have new short swing trades from the 1225 ââ¬â 1228 area. So I am short term bearish.
Do you use a similar method? Or if you use a better one please explain?
P.S. I just saw you returns! Congratulations. Anything over 30% in a year is excellent!!
Yes is can get a bit confusing with my methods but I have some similarity to yours. I do not typically trade the monthly but i do look at it. I typically trade the weekly timeframe and use 60 min for entry and exits. However,... there are times where I feel the different timeframes differ in their opinion. You need to decide which to pay attention to. I put ALOT of weight on the MACD line and its relation to the 0 line. When the longest timeframe is churning around the 0 this represents consolidation OR a new up trend or new downtrend (depending on whether the MACD is pointing up or down). So when the longer time frame shows uncertainty I defer to the next lower time frame. Well the daily currently is also churning around the 0 line ....so defer to the 60 min time frame which clearly shows a downtrend as the MACD is below 0 line and heading lower....therefore I'm a BEAR.....for now.
Look at the same time frames at the end of last week and you will see why I was long. That changed this Monday and Tues as the 60 min time frame takes precedent here because both the weekly and daily are churning around the 0 line. Thats how I define it in a nutshell. Realize that my low of 1158 still stands as a low that would turn the WEEKLY MACD lower and make me even MORE bearish.
For now I just view this week as a correction within the uptrend that I see forming on the weekly chart. (as you say short term bear with longer term bull). I only swing trade and no longer position trade as it does not suit my personality.
My Current market analysis:
1) Weekly = consolidation with Bullish to Neutral bias
2) Daily = consolidation with Bearish bias
3) 60 min = Bearish.
I liked you market analysis. Your swing trading methods and mine are somewhat similar. In one of my methods rather than 60 minutes I use 78 minutes (390/5) and weekly. The weekly/60Minute method we use has been touted all over the place in the last 20 years. One of the better tested examples of is the Tom Josephs Advanced Get product about of about 10-15 years ago (I cannot remember the dates anymore since I retired). At one of their seminars I was at for Advanced Get they introduced 60 minute charts as a better entry point for trades than using daily charts with weekly signals.
My point about using the ââ¬Åbullishââ¬Â or ââ¬Åbearishââ¬Â terms is, I believe, they are personal among traders and not really universal or useful. That is why there is so much animosity among traders when anyone uses these terms or makes market prognostications. What perplexes ETââ¬â¢ers is it is possible for one trader to be bullish in the markets and another one bearish and both of them make profits. This actually happened to me in late November on another blog discussing McDonalds (MCD). I had a bullish position long and he had a bearish swing trade short (Iââ¬â¢m still long). It all started because I used the ââ¬Åbullishââ¬Â word to describe MCD.
What I have found exceeding tough over the years is holding myself accountable for defining trades using my own marketing analysis and having the discipline to continually trade that analysis. I have flipped my analysis method more times than I can count on my fingers over the years and paid a hefty price for doing that.
Again, congrads on the great returns you are getting.
Thanks. No Problem. I guess I thought I was somewhat of a pioneer in the weekly and 60 min thing (and almost ignoring the daily)...but I guess not
. It is reassuring to know that I am not the only one that thinks this way though. I have found for me that one of the best ways to stay true to your system is that you have to KNOW it is a good system and not just THINK it is. By that I mean if keep stats and back test your system you will KNOW and not have a small doubt in your mind. Of course past results do not guarantee future results,...but what i did was look at a simple back test and then I forward tested the system in 3 different market types in the past. What I mean by that is I went back to 1994-1995 as a sideways market, 2009-2010 as bull market, late 1990's as bull market, and 2000 and 2008 as bear markets. Then start at Jan 1 of those years and plan your trades day by day and then advance the chart day by day and see what you would have done. Now I realize it is not exact as you are somewhat biased by knowing the years you are paper "trading" but at least you will see how your system performs in the various markets and if you can truly trust it. When I did this I lost ALMOST all doubt that I could do this and just follow what my indicators say to "trade what I see not what I believe"
Good Luck to you.
Quote from N54_Fan:
Thanks. No Problem. I guess I thought I was somewhat of a pioneer in the weekly and 60 min thing (and almost ignoring the daily)...but I guess not
I have found for me that one of the best ways to stay true to your system is that you have to KNOW it is a good system and not just THINK it is. By that I mean if keep stats and back test your system you will KNOW and not have a small doubt in your mind. Of course past results do not guarantee future results,...but what i did was look at a simple back test and then I forward tested the system in 3 different market types in the past. What I mean by that is I went back to 1994-1995 as a sideways market, 2009-2010 as bull market, late 1990's as bull market, and 2000 and 2008 as bear markets. Then start at Jan 1 of those years and plan your trades day by day and then advance the chart day by day and see what you would have done. Now I realize it is not exact as you are somewhat biased by knowing the years you are paper "trading" but at least you will see how your system performs in the various markets and if you can truly trust it. When I did this I lost ALMOST all doubt that I could do this and just follow what my indicators say to "trade what I see not what I believe"
Good Luck to you.
Swing trading multiple time frames has been around for decades. There are many different types of time frame pairings. Here are just a few examples multiple time frame trading that can be Googled:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/07/timeframes.asp#axzz1gehXZkSN
http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/multiple-time-frames.html
One of the first multiple time frames I used was the Triple Screen trading system developed by Dr. Alexander Elder and has been in use since 1985. It was first presented in the April 1986 issue of Futures Magazine and later explained it in his ââ¬ÅTrading for a Livingââ¬Â book. I liked it when I used a MACD on the weekly and Williams %R on the Daily. The Triple Screen combined trend following methods as well as counter trend swing trade techniques and analyzed all potential trades in several time frames. It now seems like it was in another life time I traded this method.
Then some more about good systems... Staying true to your good system is a bigger issue than most traders believe. The reason this is the case is no amount of back testing or forward testing is going to show you what the real draw downs your good system is going to experience in live trading.
I traded a ââ¬Ågood systemââ¬Â during much of the last decade. But the drawdowns I had in 2008 blew my mind. My ââ¬Ågood systemââ¬Â with 5 or 6 consecutive losing trades in the drawdowns in normal times was manageable. In 2008 the drawdowns with the same number of losses took my breath away. The only thing that kept me in the game was I reduced my position size because of the high volatility. If I had not done that it may have been game over.
A system is like a child. You can trust it one hundred percent but if you fail to keep a close eye on it watch out.
Best of Trades to you.