Grizzly Bear Turned Bull!

N

N54_Fan

I have been posting here for a while now and many of you know I am a swing trader that uses TA and trend following techniques. I have been VERY bearish on this market since late July but now in the last 2 weeks ALL of that has changed. I am currently BULLISH and think this market could go significantly higher. I have already posted my TA charts as to why I think oil and the $SPX will go higher in other threads. I also wanted to get everyones input about the possibility of resumption of the 2009 uptrend based on fundamantals. If the IMF and the US in particular (which contributes 70% to the IMF) ends up asisting EU in some sort of resolution to the EU Crisis then this would in effect mean the US is willing to devalue the $USD to save the Euro as well. This is VERY Bullish for equities. I think everyone is short the euro and long dollars or US bonds and I think this could catch everyone by surprise in the last weeks of this year. However, many on here will continue to spew the doom and gloom and say any rally is a short covering rally. I have my line in the sand set at 1158.66 (low of 2 weeks ago) as when I will say I am proven wrong and will resume my bearish stance. For now this grizzly bear has turned bull...

Anyone else out there changed there longer term stance recently? Would appreciate bull and bear discussions.
 
I think the purpose of the ralley is to suck everyone in and change people's view from bearish to bullish. I think a lot of people must have already changed their views on the market. More people start to think just like what you do, sooner the market is gonna fall. Personal view, no offence. My standard is that unless SPY500 could break a new height over the top of the height of 2nd May 2011, I still remain bearish. And if that situation happened, then it would definitely not be accidential and the market would have been twisted and minupulated, the us market is no longer a free market any more and I will never trade in the market again.
 
Quote from TILT2:

I think the purpose of the ralley is to suck everyone in and change people's view from bearish to bullish. I think a lot of people must have already changed their views on the market. More people start to think just like what you do, sooner the market is gonna fall. Personal view, no offence. My standard is that unless SPY500 could break a new height over the top of the height of 2nd May 2011, I still remain bearish. And if that situation happened, then it would definitely not be accidential and the market would have been twisted and minupulated, the us market is no longer a free market any more and I will never trade in the market again.
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Fair enough,...so I can appreciate that your line in the sand is the high of 5-2-11 before bullish again. No offense take here. I am simply pointing out that based on my TA we are soon to make a higher high....meaning a break above 1192.66. I think that will catch a lot of people by surprise. Also any break above 1270 would signify a break of the downtrend that has been in place since late July. This is also another bullish signal. As a swing trader I am entitled to change my mind at any time and become bearish again,...for now....LONGS only for me!
 
I have not changed my long term (3-6 months) stance yet and am pretty much bearish still. I am even more bearish on EUR/USD. I do agree, though, that its difficult to foresee any major downside given the strenght that bulls had in the last 2 months. From a TA perspective, I believe that Nasdaq, which is my preferite index, is right now fighting on a very important support/resistance level and the next days (5-6 trading days will show whether I change my long term stance or not). Indices have shown an impressive amount of gaps (up and down) since August and V-turns (which were aimed at shaking the tree and getting rid of the few retail traders left).

I would not venture in the field of political/fundamental news to support market stance, because that, chaps, is complete rubbish. Do balance sheets still have any reliability, come on lets be serious. Of course sovereigns and also companies (what's the difference nowadays between banks, Fed, ECB, ESFS, IMF and global companies? Don't their CEOs hold positions or interests across the playing field?). Everyone, anyway is stuck in the staggering amount of junk debt that's been created and will never be re-paid, warranting further and further debt creation and tax hikes.

antelope
 
Looking at the longer term charts for various futures, I can see why you could be bullish at this juncture. Simply defining charts as trending or correcting, the last year has been sideways to down corrections with chop. There have been some small trends but mostly just chop. No wonder most CTA's have had a tough year (me included). The point is, if we were about to sell off or beginning to sell off, things would be a lot less choppy and more trend like. On the weekly's and monthly's it just looks like a wave 2 or 4 sideways to down correction in Elliott terms (complex). I am a big bear on the fundementals but its hard to argue with the charts. FWIW
 
Quote from ChDong:

I am a long term bear gggrrrrrrrr
Long term 1-5 years economic collapse is 100%
writing is on the wall
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Ok,...I am currently of the same mindset....LONGTERM 3-5 years we are probably in trouble. But are you holding shorts that entire time or trading what you see now? If you trade what you see now is that long or short? Currently all I see is bullishness with few bearish undertones...but that could all change in a few hours if something changes the charts significantly.
 
Honestly everything will turn out to be fine, just like it always has. Not saying were going to bust higher, maybe just grind. Europe is old news.
 
Quote from TILT2:

I think the purpose of the ralley is to suck everyone in and change people's view from bearish to bullish. I think a lot of people must have already changed their views on the market. More people start to think just like what you do, sooner the market is gonna fall. Personal view, no offence. My standard is that unless SPY500 could break a new height over the top of the height of 2nd May 2011, I still remain bearish. And if that situation happened, then it would definitely not be accidential and the market would have been twisted and minupulated, the us market is no longer a free market any more and I will never trade in the market again.
More...

I think the market tricked you into believe that this rally is a good short opportunity, while actually you should be buying.
 
Quote from cyoungmark:

I think the market tricked you into believe that this rally is a good short opportunity, while actually you should be buying.
More...
I don't regret that I have missed the chance to buy. As what I said in the first page, unless the market breaks a new height over the top of 2nd May 2011, my view of the market would be turned to "bullish".
I think the market would go a little bit furthere next week, would potential leaves me "more space" to gain by selling.
 
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