Grinding it out, day after day
- Thread starter lescor
- Start date
No and no.
Lescor stated earlier in his thread that his commentary was about Emini ES day traders when he initially made the commentary about "futures traders". He also stated he was profitable in trading the Emini ES. I had questioned him about it because "at first glance" it seemed like he was saying he was the only profitable Emini ES trader regardless how infrequently he traded it.
He replied and clarified his statement with the following...
The point he was making was that he didn't know any profitable Emini ES day traders that their primary trades was the Emini ES futures. In contrast, he knew traders that profitably traded the Emini ES (including himself) but not as day traders and they "infrequently" traded the Emini ES futures.
Regardless, Emini ES isn't the only game in town when it comes to futures and I'm sure with his resources/trading experience...he could find some other futures trading instrument to trade profitably (e.g. Oil, Gold, Treasuries)...although I'm not sure why he even plays around with Emini ES futures once in awhile when other futures markets are at extremes.
Mark
Lescor-
Thanks for the update on your 2011 trading. I've read this entire thread and am very impressed with your consistency and discipline.
I have a couple questions about comments made along with your update.
1) You've said (a couple times besides your most recent comments) that all the successful traders *you* know trade stocks and not futures. Based on your experience and how you trade, you seem to infer that a trader has a higher probability of trading profitably if he/she chooses to trade stocks vs. futures. Can you comment on why you think that is? Is it because the movement of stock prices are more consistent and less random than say, the ES? Is there some other reason why you think this is?
2) With the advent of HFT and off the tape trading, are you seeing a significant change in how you go about making profits?
3) Do you get a sense that the other successful traders that you keep in contact with are significantly changing how they are trading? Or are they just as or more successful with their proven techniques?
Thanks again for giving us a peek into your world.
mu2pilot
Thanks for the update on your 2011 trading. I've read this entire thread and am very impressed with your consistency and discipline.
I have a couple questions about comments made along with your update.
1) You've said (a couple times besides your most recent comments) that all the successful traders *you* know trade stocks and not futures. Based on your experience and how you trade, you seem to infer that a trader has a higher probability of trading profitably if he/she chooses to trade stocks vs. futures. Can you comment on why you think that is? Is it because the movement of stock prices are more consistent and less random than say, the ES? Is there some other reason why you think this is?
2) With the advent of HFT and off the tape trading, are you seeing a significant change in how you go about making profits?
3) Do you get a sense that the other successful traders that you keep in contact with are significantly changing how they are trading? Or are they just as or more successful with their proven techniques?
Thanks again for giving us a peek into your world.
mu2pilot
As I've mentioned before, I think that there is more opportunity to make money trading stocks than futures for a few reasons.
First of all, how many futures markets are there to trade? I don't know, but let's say 100. How many stock symbols are there to trade? Ummm.... like 5000? 50x as many places to look for opportunity.
Futures traders often mention the awesome liquidity they enjoy. But did it ever occur to them that lack of liquidity might provide an edge? If someone desperately needs to sell and there are no bids, guess who gets to name their price?
Name which futures markets moved 3x their average daily range on 10x their normal volume today. Give me 8 seconds and I'll find you a couple dozen stocks that did.
Leverage on futures is awesome, I know. Trading stocks with a prop firm, it's awesomer. Futures guys got their 60/40 tax thing, which is nice I guess, but I don't live in the US so that don't matter to me.
Now let me reiterate.... I'm not saying you can't make just as much, or more money trading futures than you can trading stocks. People have equal success with both. For me and how I trade, it's a better fit, that's all. The circle of trader friends that I know happens to be almost exclusively stock traders. If I started my career differently, maybe it would be the opposite and I'd know all rich futures traders.
As for your other questions- my time frame tends to be long enough that high frequency trading doesn't seem to have a material impact on my trading. The other guys I know are always tweaking and adapting but generally trade in more or less the same way they have for a long time. But experience and continued hard work brings along something new once in a while.
First of all, how many futures markets are there to trade? I don't know, but let's say 100. How many stock symbols are there to trade? Ummm.... like 5000? 50x as many places to look for opportunity.
Futures traders often mention the awesome liquidity they enjoy. But did it ever occur to them that lack of liquidity might provide an edge? If someone desperately needs to sell and there are no bids, guess who gets to name their price?
Name which futures markets moved 3x their average daily range on 10x their normal volume today. Give me 8 seconds and I'll find you a couple dozen stocks that did.
Leverage on futures is awesome, I know. Trading stocks with a prop firm, it's awesomer. Futures guys got their 60/40 tax thing, which is nice I guess, but I don't live in the US so that don't matter to me.
Now let me reiterate.... I'm not saying you can't make just as much, or more money trading futures than you can trading stocks. People have equal success with both. For me and how I trade, it's a better fit, that's all. The circle of trader friends that I know happens to be almost exclusively stock traders. If I started my career differently, maybe it would be the opposite and I'd know all rich futures traders.
As for your other questions- my time frame tends to be long enough that high frequency trading doesn't seem to have a material impact on my trading. The other guys I know are always tweaking and adapting but generally trade in more or less the same way they have for a long time. But experience and continued hard work brings along something new once in a while.
The futures vs stocks thing has been beaten to death but really there is no need to compare one vs the other. In the end, its just another security to trade. You could have the same argument over whether its better to trade IBM vs YHOO, or MMM vs JNJ, it really doesn't matter.
Every security offers its unique characteristics, trade both! whatever.
Every security offers its unique characteristics, trade both! whatever.
lescor, I've been reading the Van Tharpe's _Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom_ (one you mentioned early in your thread), and I got to this quote and was wondering if you agreed with it.
it's on pg236 of my copy
"Your stop loss predefines your initial risk, R. But your primary job as a trader should be to devise a plan that will get you profits that are large multiples of R."
Elsewhere in the book he talks about a handfull of big winners being the difference between a good and bad year.
I'm in the process of learning Amibroker right now and am working on programming my first systems and exit strategies and this approach doesn't sound totally comfortable to me. I'd much rather have alot of 2x and 3x R wins if possible and am willing to fore-go the big 10-15x win - IF POSSIBLE - just for the sake of consistency. I don't want to have to count on home-runs - in part because when looking at a system that makes all it's money on a handful of huge wins makes me wonder if it's just noise.
So my question I guess is: Is it really best to try for the big multiple of R trades? (For time period - I'm working on position trading stocks right now, not intraday)
it's on pg236 of my copy
"Your stop loss predefines your initial risk, R. But your primary job as a trader should be to devise a plan that will get you profits that are large multiples of R."
Elsewhere in the book he talks about a handfull of big winners being the difference between a good and bad year.
I'm in the process of learning Amibroker right now and am working on programming my first systems and exit strategies and this approach doesn't sound totally comfortable to me. I'd much rather have alot of 2x and 3x R wins if possible and am willing to fore-go the big 10-15x win - IF POSSIBLE - just for the sake of consistency. I don't want to have to count on home-runs - in part because when looking at a system that makes all it's money on a handful of huge wins makes me wonder if it's just noise.
So my question I guess is: Is it really best to try for the big multiple of R trades? (For time period - I'm working on position trading stocks right now, not intraday)
In regards to stocks and futures they both got advantages and disadvantages there is no perfect instrument otherwise there would not be any liquidity elsewhere except on that particular godlike instrument.
Consistently making money in trading is hard enough to get picky, once you find consistency, if you find it, trade whatever instrument(s) provides it, whether it's futures, options or equities.
Find the one(s) you excel with and just keep getting better until the job is mostly automated or done as second nature.
Crazy A
Consistently making money in trading is hard enough to get picky, once you find consistency, if you find it, trade whatever instrument(s) provides it, whether it's futures, options or equities.
Find the one(s) you excel with and just keep getting better until the job is mostly automated or done as second nature.
Crazy A
what country do you live in Lescor?