Lescor,
Below is a statement from Dustin ("How to Learn Price Action" thread, p. 7) where he recommends a K.I.S.S. principle. In doing so, he stated that trend is overall easier & more profitable than RTM. Although I'm a rtm advocate, as it makes more sense to me, I still believe that Dustin has a VERY VALID point.
What type of RTM filter/scan do you run to improve the likihood of a RTM/reversal, as opposed to a continuation trend for the day? The type of filters that I use tend to identfy more breakouts than reversals. Even if the breakout would eventually reverse, often times I would have exited before the reversal if I was properly adhering to my risk/money management rules. However, I do notice that if I willing to incur much more risk by scaling-in (average down) with a much wider stop loss, then I would have a very high win rate. The problem with such an approach is that I may hit the invariable "Black Swan" event that looses a couple of months worth of wins in one trade. I think it goes back to the fundamental premise argued by Dustin, as stated below:
Most new guys make trading so complicated, because they don't know any better. The problem is they need a strong base, or starting point. I just provided them that in an incredibly simple statement.
"ONLY buy strong stocks, ONLY sell weak stocks."
Do I ever do countertrend trading? Yeah every day, but I can tell you it's 2-3X harder then trend trading and about half as profitable. As a new trader they should forget the idea completely. In fact they should ban themselves from it.
Forget the proof. Take the idea and trade it small for a week. If you (anyone reading this) aren't profitable yet then what's the harm? Don't try to backtest, just trade it small. I can't stand backtesters. You don't learn to trade that way.
Take all the indicators off of your charts except volume. Forget T&S, LII, Open Book, ticks, candles etc. Forget anything else you think you know, and just try it. And use charts, lots of them.
I know from reading this board for ten years that nobody will actually do this, but I was compelled to write it anyway.