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Grexit (Greece exiting Euro) what would be the consequences?
- Thread starter uexkuell
- Start date
you da man!I waited till opening on monday to limit risk:
Show me where I wrote that I made 20 points? I said I went short 20 points LOWER (which is not better but WORSE), and I did not say where I closed my position.
- long EURO (winning trade against losing one for you, except if you closed it almost at opening), the upwards correction was even bigger than the drop!
- short ES (20 points lower entry then you, but much less risk)
I hate to discuss with people who cannot be honest. Only attack, manipulate statements of others and of course never admit that they made an error in reading or anything else. They are the Gods of trading, nobody can beat them and nobody knows as much as they do. In short: frustrated losers who cannot make money and have as main aim in life to envy other people.
on that particular night, I really was truly the greatest. and I'm sure you were also good. I'm not competitive. Never have been. It's not in my nature. Never understood man's need to win. the only thing I compete against is my own account balance.You have no clue what I do. What you do is wishfull thinking. Telling yourself that you are the greatest by minimizing what others do, even without knowing what they do. That's what losers always do to reduce their own suffering and frustrations.
You are correct, you have no clue what I am doing and I have no clue what you are doing. The only difference is, I don't give a shit what you are doing.
it is obvious in your socialist world the puerto rican debt crisis ,new jersey pensions crises, the detriot bankruptcy and the oncoming chicago bankruptcy have zero effect on the price of stocks and are not part of an incipient crisis.The effect in Greece would be significant, imports would become expensive, but debt burden would be eased. Inflation would pick up steam. There will be immediate liquidity problems. In the Euro zone the effect in 6 months would hardly be noticeable. In global markets, other than in those closely tied to the Greek economy, the effect would be nearly undetectable.
The total amount of the Greek debt is a tiny drop in the international finance bucket. Greece could default on all debt tomorrow, never pay a drachma back, and the net effect globally would be virtually zero. It's too small an amount to be significant overall. US markets are reacting partly because of hedging against a market reaction, which is a bit ironic. Those who hold assets related to the Greek economy will rest uneasily unless they are fully hedged or insured, and those who see the market falling will panic as they always do. And of course the reaction will be over done, as it always is. For very short term traders this is, once the selling stops, a buying opportunity.
If Greece were to drop out of the Euro zone, it could actually help strengthen the Euro, by removing one of the albatrosses around its neck. It is possible that Greece would go back to the drachma, but remain in the Euro economic community. If I were to bet, I would bet on a last minute accommodation however..
Of much more impact will be the Fed's decision in the fall. The U.S. market has been trying to put in a top for months now, and this little fracas my help things along. Eventually it will fall, and of course the reaction to anticipation of tightening, which has already begun, will be overdone as always. The Fed will tighten, when they finally do, in a very gradual and measured way. Once people realize the sky is not falling, the market will recover some, but it will remain tepid for an extended period of many months if not several years. After all we have enjoyed six years of a continuous bull market following the 2007-2009 crisis. Now THAT was a REAL crisis!
at the moment, I'm short a full load of eur.aud and long a full load of eur.cad. So other than the exchange rate that makes me about flat the eur, and then I have a small short eur.jpy which makes net short eur. And that could change at any time. But I am and have been a perma bear on the eur. I always start every trade out net short the eur. It's been a winner for me for a long, long time. And I don't see that anything has changed.trendline break on 5min chart. Bearish?
Everybody wants their currency to go down, but at this time in history, the EU REALLY needs eur to go down. Once things settle down in EU, I think janet will raise and the USD will take the brunt of it.
Keep in mind, this is just my uneducated opinion. I never actually trade on what I think should happen.
If you say the 5 min is bearish (I never look at charts anymore) I agree, because I am always bearish eur until we hit parity. Greece is a done deal, but Italy is a different matter.
Now who's idea was it that Germany should have the same currency as Greece and Italy?
puerto rico, chicago, detroit, new jersey? They can all go bankrupt. They haven't been a significant part of the US economy for a long time. Now, if North Dakota or Texas ever get in a bind, that would be a source of concern to me.it is obvious in your socialist world the puerto rican debt crisis ,new jersey pensions crises, the detriot bankruptcy and the oncoming chicago bankruptcy have zero effect on the price of stocks and are not part of an incipient crisis.
and another thing, If I am domiciled in Chicago, how does it affect me if the local government goes bankrupt? My company was making money long before chicago borrowed too much and promised too much. How does that affect my price on the exchange? The only thing that can affect me is the tax rate. Other than that, people are buying and selling my stock based on my earnings and prospects, not based on how screwed up my local socialist government is.
and then I have other things going on in USDwell that didn't last long. What the hell is going on with that yen?
so that makes me
eur.aud short
eur.cad long
eur.jpy short
all at the same full size load, so net short, and that is the kind of position I can sleep on, since I am a euro perma bear
NQ dropped 20 NQ points since the time of my post. Nice day tradetrendline break on 5min chart. Bearish?