Grexit (Greece exiting Euro) what would be the consequences?

What would be the consequences of Grexit (Greece exiting Euro)

  • Euro decreasing

    Votes: 11 47.8%
  • Euro increasing

    Votes: 7 30.4%
  • S&P 500 decreasing

    Votes: 8 34.8%
  • S&P 500 increasing

    Votes: 4 17.4%
  • DAX decreasing

    Votes: 9 39.1%
  • DAX increasing

    Votes: 3 13.0%

  • Total voters
    23
I'm pretty sure there will be some bullshit deal by Sunday night. I'm going into the weekend 100% short eur and net long usd.
That's what we call gambling, has nothing to do with trading. There are many opportunities every day to make money in normal circumstances, why look for extra risk? Masochistique behavour?
 
The usual right wing approach to this sort of problem is to have an expensive PR blitz and then an expensive panel of experts to tell the people that they need less wages, pensions etc.
Well that approach has been tried and now the Greeks are up to their necks in debt.

The Left wing approach of borrowing more and wasting most of it, is also useless.

One might suggest ignoring the problem except that it becomes a breeding ground for extremism !

So guys a new approach is needed.
 
That's what we call gambling, has nothing to do with trading. There are many opportunities every day to make money in normal circumstances, why look for extra risk? Masochistique behavour?
not sure why holding overnight is gambling and day trading is trading, but if you say so
 
not sure why holding overnight is gambling and day trading is trading, but if you say so

It is not about going overnight, it is about the unpredictable reaction of the market. Volatility can be very high and direction can be anywhere too.

Difference between going overnight and daytrading: Going overnight means you are not sitting before your screen 24/24. You open your screen the next day and see what happened without the possibility to react to unexpected moves during the night. In intraday I stay in front of my screen till my positions are closed. I follow every tick. I can react always and immediatelly. To me that's a huge difference. But if you are sure nothing can happen overnight...
 
Which would be the effects of Greece exiting the Euro?

Which instruments would be affected?

Euro
S&P 500
DAX

Do you have others in mind?

And in which direction would they go?

Please explain why you think things will go the way you expect.

Nobody will tell you with any degree of certainty what the outcome will be, folks may get lucky on choosing a direction, but that will be pure luck. FWIW IMHO S&P500 futures and DAX futures are likely to gap down as reaction to news over the weekend.
 
To quote a blogger that understands fundamentals way better than I do, he said that Greece is just a fly on the back of an elephant called EU, so their departure shouldn't hit markets that much, perhaps a buying opportunity, but the actual problem rests in potential departure of Portugal, Spain and Italy.
 
To quote a blogger that understands fundamentals way better than I do, he said that Greece is just a fly on the back of an elephant called EU, so their departure shouldn't hit markets that much, perhaps a buying opportunity, but the actual problem rests in potential departure of Portugal, Spain and Italy.
Exactly, it is a lot of money but also a lot of taxpayers.
So the amount per taxpayer, in my case, is less than 1% of the income taxes I will pay this year, in the worst case scenario,which would be a total loss of all the money we gave to Greece.
 
It is not about going overnight, it is about the unpredictable reaction of the market. Volatility can be very high and direction can be anywhere too.

Difference between going overnight and daytrading: Going overnight means you are not sitting before your screen 24/24. You open your screen the next day and see what happened without the possibility to react to unexpected moves during the night. In intraday I stay in front of my screen till my positions are closed. I follow every tick. I can react always and immediatelly. To me that's a huge difference. But if you are sure nothing can happen overnight...
yep, that's pretty much the way I trade. I'm in all the time. I wake up and see what happened and start making adjustments. Beats the heck out of day trading.

as far as the EUR goes, that is only one side of the trade. Yes, I am short eur and the price on Sunday night is anybody's guess, but I have another deal going on in the Canadian Dollar, and I needed something to get long against, so at the moment, the eur seems like as good a currency as any to get short against.

I'm still betting (opinion wise, not money wise) on a deal. At worst a period of trying to run a duel currency. But what difference does it make to me? I'm short eur, but am willing to take the other side at any moment. If you follow eur, it should be obvious this whole weekend has been priced in for a long time. But what do I know, I'm just a gambler. I'll let you real traders do the real trading.
 
We will see what will happen on monday. Probably a disaster in Greece.

Comment from CEO of Piraeus Bank: Banks will be closed on monday, banks will stay closed the whole week.

Probably they will stay closed till after the referendum. I think after that it will be a big disaster for Greece.
ECB says the support for Greek banks will stay at 90 billion Euro for the moment. ECB will help the centrale bank of Greece to keep the financial system stable. Gives Greece a little bit time to do what they have to do.
 
Back
Top