Greg's Forex Journal

The 1 min just bought me a ticket to going live :). I made 4:1 on this one. For those of you who think the 1 min and 5 min are random and untradable, they are most of the time, but if you know what you're doing they unlock the key to R:R and huge profits.

If this trade didn't collapse immediately like it did I would have been rolling it to the 2 and 3 hour charts.

Edit: If you are a more seasoned trader than I am, you would still be making money on this move. As for me I'm way too excited to trade right now, and I'm far from being superman.
 

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hmm, I remember you mentioned you would NEVER trade baded on anything smaller than 15min time frames. You know, there is definitely guys who make money scalping in and out of trades and there is guys who make money swing trading. Changing, however, back and forth and being clearly inconsistent will get you killed for sure. Stick with one method as a beginner thats my 2 cents.

Quote from TraderGreg:

The 1 min just bought me a ticket to going live :). I made 4:1 on this one. For those of you who think the 1 min and 5 min are random and untradable, they are most of the time, but if you know what you're doing they unlock the key to R:R and huge profits.

If this trade didn't collapse immediately like it did I would have been rolling it to the 2 and 3 hour charts.

Edit: If you are a more seasoned trader than I am, you would still be making money on this move. As for me I'm way too excited to trade right now, and I'm far from being superman.
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Quote from asiaprop:

hmm, I remember you mentioned you would NEVER trade baded on anything smaller than 15min time frames. You know, there is definitely guys who make money scalping in and out of trades and there is guys who make money swing trading. Changing, however, back and forth and being clearly inconsistent will get you killed for sure. Stick with one method as a beginner thats my 2 cents.
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There was a time when that was true. I've completely changed my strategy.

I agree with you though. Sometimes I get too constrained on the 1-5 min and I can't refocus. That happened today and I stopped trading. I also get chopped up occasionally in non-trending markets. I will overcome this with experience (all it is is excitement and a bit of impatience).

My strategy is to find concentrated energy. Before this break the 3 hour and 2 hour were bearish and looking to begin its next downward impulse. There was a 15/5 min triangle, which was trapped bullish on the 5 min and then retreated.

I took a 1 min bear flag with the intention of it being a 5-15 min signal and possibly a roll into the 2 hr (with the size I can put on a 10-pip risk these would be huge profits).

It's still swing trading, but I can make a ratio of 3:1 into 10:1 and have very near the same probabilities of success with some practice and skill. My risk for this impulse was 10 pips, and I made 4:1 while getting on the trend late and couldn't focus enough to take the re-entry or roll the signal (again, excitement - I reached my go live profit level mid-trade).

The key to trading is the combo of R:R and direction I think.
 
Time for my occasional entry.

I've figured out a few of my problems, and does anyone have any ideas for how I can solve them? I've noticed that my progression on at least a few of them hasn't been that great, so I was wondering if anyone had any tips, exercises, etc.

Main problems:

I'm trying to figure out where the market is going, rather than being receptive to the price action (just put that one in the trading rules when I realized it today)

Getting consumed by the 1 min and 5 min charts. It's not even that I'm trying to make profits that quickly. Basically I analyze everything from the monthly down to 1 min on the hour, and besides that I just keep up with whatever is closing bars (30 min every half hour, 15 min every 15 min, 5 min every 5 min, 1 min every min, etc.). Easily, I just end up watching the 1 min more than anything else, and it messes with my mind (always has).

Trouble fitting all the movements together in my head (monthly down to weekly), but I think it is because this is a newer practice for me and I keep adding new charts (for ex. I have a 1 hr, 2 hr, 3hr, and 4hr)

Making things complicated for myself - every time I've become successful, I add more onto my plate. For example when I was doing well I added the 5 min chart, then the 1 min chart, and then for better analysis I now have a 10 min, 2 hr, 4 hr, weekly, and monthly. Not sure if this is my pathway to continued learning and the quickest way to success, or if it is a mistake.

Patience. Isn't it always?

Just put my rule to not open the 1 min chart back into my trading rules (I was actually doing well with it for a while, but after a few weeks I've become channeled on it once again). The problem with the 5 min is still there though.

I'll post another chart. I like this one.
 

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Haven't posted much lately. Feel free to comment or ask questions, but I probably won't update much.

In the past few months, I've been quite profitable and have moved from paper trading (0.5% risk per trade) to live (0.5% risk per trade) and just recently moved my risk up to 1% in the past week as my success has been increasing.

I've also been getting into Elliott Wave lately, but trying to count waves have seemed to make me worse. :)

Attachment: nothing special here, just interesting market movement a few weeks ago
 

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Just added this in my trading rules and thought I'd share:

The focus of trading is on having the best and most efficient expected outcome per trade (based on R:R and probability of success) as it relates to total profit, drawdowns, and factors like emotion that may impact trading execution.

I don't have this as it is more common sense and a simple economic concept, but it is just as important to note:

In the long term, trading is about managing efforts in such a way that trading research and invested time to create more trading gains (research, practice, etc.) is managed most effectively.

Edit: In addition, it seems that trading rules should play the role of overseer/enforcer of these guidelines over the self, assuming that the trader needs them (which may not be the case).
 
who are you using for a broker/charting? I thought oanda as I read through the journal but it doesn't look it now. Sorry to go off topic on the journal though, good trading.
 
Quote from inks2002:

who are you using for a broker/charting? I thought oanda as I read through the journal but it doesn't look it now. Sorry to go off topic on the journal though, good trading.
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As it stands...

I execute through Oanda and use their charts, but TOS if you've seen them lately they have so much better charts.

TOS has monthly, weekly, 4 day, 3 day, 2 day, 4 hr, 2 hr, 20 min, 10 min, all of which Oanda doesn't have (and many others, that's just what I can think of now). I use several of them.
 
Got a request to update my journal, and there's been a lot going on lately so it's probably a good time.

Between early March to early May I was trading very well, averaging .75-1.0% per day (which was pretty impressive as I was only risking 0.5% per trade).

However, things began to turn on me in the past few weeks. I really only had one bad trading day before finally hitting an intraday drawdown level (only one I've hit in 25 sessions). According to my rules, I can only continue if I am positive after three paper trading sessions, and unfortunately I didn't trade well there either.

As a result I am back to paper trading until I earn 6x my risk per trade in profit (so in risking 0.5% per trade, I have to have 3% in profit before going live), which will take a while even if I am trading well.

I also now have a full time job from 8:30 - 4:00, so I probably won't get a chance to trade London session any more than once per week.

My main concern now is trying to figure out where my mistakes are.

Attachment: chasing these kinds of trades is inevitably what started my slump (became far too aggressive and focused on increasing position sizes by reducing risk in pips), but one of these trades can earn weeks worth of profit.
 

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Okay, for the last 8-10 weeks I've been analyzing one instrument outside of forex. This has been an experiment that has so far seemed like something I would like to continue, as it helps open my mind to new ideas - many of which I can apply back to forex.

What I do is I change my instrument once a month, and keep track of it on many timeframes. Two months ago it was the S&P, last month it was the Nasdaq 100, and this month it is the Russell 2000.

It has been a success so far, and I would like to continue it by starting a thread. This way I can express my ideas and predictions so that I can get them down clearly and then judge what I was thinking after watching it play out.

A few quick notes: I am putting this in my journal because I really could create a new thread every time I change instruments and explain what the hell I'm doing, or I can just do it here quietly to show that it is an extension of my goals with forex. Secondly, I can't really think of anything better to do trading-wise when the market is closed, so if you have any ideas I would love to hear them.

I'll have the first post up soon.
 
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