Greg's Forex Journal

Today, I watched a little and made some charts.

I thought I'd change things up and post two of my rules rather than a chart:

Realize and understand that you have and will always have weaknesses in your rationality. If you figure out where they are and protect yourself from them, you can make up for it in wisdom.

Realize what makes you weak, what makes you strong, and why you won’t make the same mistakes again.

I have 65 rules right now on general trading and forex (so not including scheduling, pre-trading procedure, and capital management). About a third to a half of them are subjective rules like this one that aren't directly related to the market.

If there is any one reason why I picked trading over everything else I've loved over the years (geology, astronomy, but especially philosophy and meteorology) it is exactly this tendency of the markets that keep me here.

Among my rules, I also list all my worst failures and why they occurred; especially the ones that caused me the most emotional pain. I force myself to read and relive them every day I trade, in order to make myself better.

My pursuit of wisdom and self improvement is my edge in the markets, and it is my edge in life.
 
10:30 – 10:45 – Read trading rules and made some lines, etc. Apparently I forgot on Tuesday that I was only supposed to trade the EUR/USD and not the EUR/JPY and EUR/USD together. As a result, today I am only sticking with the EUR/USD. I also have a lot to do today, so I will be in and out.

11:15 – I missed the 11:00 15 minute inside bar. I watched the thing close and saw the opportunity I just wasn’t processing anything.

12:01 – short EUR/USD. Risk 26.4 pips, 0.5%

12:16 – stop loss moved to -16

12:27 – I wasn’t stopped out, but price hit what was intended to be my stop so I had to exit (I adjusted for spreads). Loss of a few pips less than 16 and about 0.24%

12:37 – starting to see signals in response to local 15 min trendlines, but they are oscillating around a strong hourly trendline so I think they’re fakes.

2:45 – saw the signal but was right against hourly TL

4:17 – Just got back, and sitting out a long signal again. I apparently also missed a great pin/pipes. Going against the most solid hourly TL remaining in the area, and also a weaker 15 min line.


5:15 – long, risk 26 pips, 0.5%

5:40 – stop moved to +2

5:46 – stop moved to +10

5:48 – stopped out. Gain of about 0.24%

I was looking for a short for the past few hours (9:19) but my signal never triggered. I have other things to do now. Round result: trades of -12 or so and +10, total loss of around 0.03% or so
 

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I thought I'd post this to see what kind of replies I'd get. This is only the second time I've identified a gartley in real time, and I would be short with a stop above the high (not trading today, have too much stuff to do).

I've been trading just as much, but I started this thread to make myself write in my journal, and after all those months I decided I could just make a trading rule (I'm dense like that).

If anyone's wondering, my last 7 sessions (all I've been able to do since Jan 1) I have 18 trades, 9 winners, 9 losers, and net gains of 27.1 pips and 0.3% (average risk 0.5%).

Most of my work has been watching while either doing other stuff for school/work or other market projects (screensaver, completely revitalizing my trading rules, etc.)
 

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I've been trying to increase how often I look at the weekly chart of the EUR/USD, so I'm going to make a long term call.

If we hit around 1.3760 and a much higher probability if the week closes above there, the Euro will hit 1.59 on the dollar.

Attachment: Weekly dragon pattern. My only concern was that the end-of-week rally was unsustainable (have no idea what the news was - don't care though), but based on what I've seen I'm pretty sure the daily inside bar will be breaking up and this pattern will complete.

Bad time for studying in Europe next year :(, but at least I will be able to trade London and American ;)

Edit: I'm making the call on the pattern because I've traded a lot of good ones very successfully (love the pattern), and besides the news variable this one looks perfect. I'm not taking any trades though, really don't see the point in holding for longer than a few hours max :)
 

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Quote from TraderGreg:

I've been trying to increase how often I look at the weekly chart of the EUR/USD, so I'm going to make a long term call.

If we hit around 1.3760 and a much higher probability if the week closes above there, the Euro will hit 1.59 on the dollar.

Attachment: Weekly dragon pattern. My only concern was that the end-of-week rally was unsustainable (have no idea what the news was - don't care though), but based on what I've seen I'm pretty sure the daily inside bar will be breaking up and this pattern will complete.

Bad time for studying in Europe next year :(, but at least I will be able to trade London and American ;)

Edit: I'm making the call on the pattern because I've traded a lot of good ones very successfully (love the pattern), and besides the news variable this one looks perfect. I'm not taking any trades though, really don't see the point in holding for longer than a few hours max :)
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a very nevious USD/EUR market these two days, take a look at intraday charts such as 5m and 15m, and you will see this is the chop from hell.

The 200 pips around trip within 30 minutes yesterday certainly didn't help.
 
Quote from Willleung:

a very nevious USD/EUR market these two days, take a look at intraday charts such as 5m and 15m, and you will see this is the chop from hell.

The 200 pips around trip within 30 minutes yesterday certainly didn't help.
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Definitely. I lost 1% in Tuesday's chop.

I'm having a hard time getting a solid feel for direction.
 
Quote from TraderGreg:

Definitely. I lost 1% in Tuesday's chop.

I'm having a hard time getting a solid feel for direction.
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then you better add more charts :)

Indeed it tested 1.35 lat night, didn't have an entry thru, was asleep on the sofa waiting, LMAO.
 
My advice to you as beginner is to trade larger time frames with smaller positions but widers stops. Having stops 10pips wide does not make any sense whatsoever. Anything below 15min bars is total noise, whatever others tell you. You may make money here or there but in this market with ATRs that on 15min bars are way above 10pips in petty much every pair you get wipsawed to death.

Just my 2 cents.


Quote from TraderGreg:

During Trading

Several months ago, I would have jumped onto the beautiful USD/JPY 3 hr spinners at the LOBF (also 1-2-3, other signals) but apparently I tuned in about two hours too late, and I will have to sit out and find a new entry.

7:05 pm EDT – EUR/JPY sell stop hit. Was playing PA, down trendline but missed the uptrend line until later, so it is also a triangle/flag play (meaning I pre-empted it, so watching 15 min close closely to see if close breakdown). Triangle/flag looks strong on hourly, 30 min, and 15 min – will have to watch bar closes intently to see if breakdown is legitimate, but signal confluence means this could be big, so good R:R and will stay in trade even though I wasn’t seeing the whole picture.

7:23 – stop moved to +5 pips.

7:30 – stopped out.

8 pm – taking a break, very much in awe of how many signals I’ve missed, especially a nice one that could have gotten me in on the USD/JPY run if I was watching it (still had the other trade open at the time).

8:30 – short USD/CHF, Risk: 12 pips (including 4 pip spread)

9:02 – stopped out for 4 pip loss (opposing signal)

10:03 – have to get back to other work, and really no trades jumping out at me anywhere. I have a buy stop on the USD/JPY which I will let sit, but otherwise no more trades. Back to make several charts later.

11:43 – I do not really understand the USD/JPY, but I took the long on the first sign of weakening of the collapsing panic. What I do understand is that most of my doji and double spinner examples came from this pair, the collapse gives the pullback to my 3 hr trendline I’ve been waiting for, the pullback faltered around my spinner closes, and the lack of change in spreads told me that the collapse wasn’t news. Total risk is 23 pips, if I am right however this trade may last a while (daily LOBF, 3 hr trendline and spinners). Because of this, I took it on my 3 hr smaller lot, and I will probably manage it mainly on the hourly.

12:08 – entered with rest of full size to reflect after placing stop at what would be a breakdown of a 15 min inside bar. Total average risk is down to about ten pips. Unfortunately I think my entry is a bit off and I should have put a buy stop several pips higher. Hmm.

New Rule: enter on limits and stops as much as possible (gives me a more strategy-based mindset, less likely to do something on a whim)

12:39 – probable bearish gartley alert, strong correction from .618, exited

12:41 – wow, that was really a dumb move. Impulsive, I got the ratios very wrong (no screensaver time in a while, had to go back and check), and I’m sure that this was probably the last good entry to the first impulse. Time to sit on my profit and sit on my hands. And there it goes to higher highs…

About two pips of profit averaged into both positions. What a wasted entry. This is both the potential and weakness that is Tradergreg. Anyway, profit of 0.1% on the day ($1 on $1,000). Three trades: +5, -4, +2. I see what stealthtrader was talking about when he talked about moving up his stops – many stopped out, a few losses, and the majority of profits from homeruns.

However, I know better than changing my stop on the last trade the way I did (the EUR/JPY I think was okay, even though it went back my way).

Attachment: Haven’t made any charts yet, but thought I’d post the USD/JPY because it’s interesting and embarrassing. Because it’s a 3 hr play, my stop should probably be below the second hump at its highest. Triangles are longs, squares were just me clicking around, the circle was when I got stopped out.

Edit: I regret to say that I was looking at a compressed 1 min because my entry and exit signals were overlapping my bars too much, but I wanted to keep tabs on them. Hmmm, another whim trade, and another rule broken.
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Quote from IluvVol:

My advice to you as beginner is to trade larger time frames with smaller positions but widers stops. Having stops 10pips wide does not make any sense whatsoever. Anything below 15min bars is total noise, whatever others tell you. You may make money here or there but in this market with ATRs that on 15min bars are way above 10pips in petty much every pair you get wipsawed to death.

Just my 2 cents.
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I know what you mean. I try to trade mainly off the hourly to 15 min with smaller positions, but occasionally take a larger one by taking a five minute signal if the larger time frames seem to flaring a signal (such as important or level).

My problem is that sometimes when one goes well I get too confident for the next time and get too jumpy, but when I do I go back and focus on larger and I've been getting better.

I've been oscillating around even
 
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