Yes it's not always going to be a V or L, but something in between that's going to be a problem
Greedy CME Raises Exchange Fees Again as of February 1st
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
Yes it's not always going to be a V or L, but something in between that's going to be a problem
Yeah, the part after where it starts falling, thats pretty much a smoothed version of the Japanese stock market between 1990 and 2000.
It fell from 30,000 to 15,000 then recovered back to 22,000, never getting back to its all time high.
The consolation is that in those first 3 years volatility will be wild with lots of relatively easy money to be made trading. The years after would probably not be so easy...
Not sure if that is ever going to happen to the US stock market in whats left of my lifetime, i will give it only a small chance but not rule it out completely.
The US market was pretty rangebound between 1997 and 2012, looked more like this pattern: /V\/
ES bounced between 750 and 1500 during that 15 year period before finally breaking out in 2013.
We could be rangebound between 3000 and 5000 for all of this decade, or AI and runaway government spending could cause a new bull market upside breakout, who knows.
Last edited:
Yeah, I get your point. But I don't trade that way, just as I don't arbitrarily use 2% of my account for my stop. So when CME keeps raising fees every year, it directly eats into my profit (or loss).
Aren't higher fees a good thing? Makes it harder for noise traders like high-frequency algos and scalpers to operate.
For daytraders like me who average only one or two trades a day, higher fees are a net benefit.
Oh so you don't like scalpers, eh? But did you know that scalpers are the ones that provide liquidity in the market so that folks like you don't end up paying high slippage? Speaking of which, slippage will usually cost you more than higher commission.
So what's it gonna be, Mr. Daytrader who only trades 1-2 trades a day? Higher commission or higher slippage? Ya can't have your cake and eat it too.
It's not about like or not like. Fair play to scalpers who are out there competing for profits like everyone else. But I am under no illusion that their existence is beneficial to me.
For liquidity I assume it is net neutral, in that they are liquidity providers (using limit orders) half the the time, and liquidity takers half the time (using market orders). If you have data to show scalpers use more limit orders than market orders, that would be interesting to share.
I ain't talking about offering (limit order) or taking(market order) liquidity. Without scalpers, you'll essentially end up with wide spread like shown below. Scalpers will come in and bid up and bid down the price, thereby tightening the spread. That WIDE SPREAD will be way more expensive than paying just a few more bucks on your commission (which you seem to be implying in your previous post).
But if scalpers are using market orders to buy, then they are sweeping the ask, making the spread even larger for me.
That did not age well, as the S&P closed above 5600 yesterday, and we are only 4 1/2 years into this decade.
So...
You didnt quote the second part of the sentence.
The second part was:
"or AI and runaway government spending could cause a new bull market upside breakout"
Based on the breakout above 5000 i would normally say the bull market will continue into 2025 and 2026 before we see the top for the decade in 2027.
However the breath is so weak, I cant be confident. Although there was a nice almost 3.6% rally the Russell 2000 yesterday and the R2K is on the verge of a multi year breakout, so it looks like small caps and rest of the market are joining in now.
Last edited: