Greatest Trader of all time or Fraud?

Darc said:
My thoughts are: he's picked the exact peak and bottom to the Candlestick.

Remembering, the Candlestick moves first, then the EMA. You couldn't get this exact precision using the EMA could you???
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OK;
NOT likely @ all '' he picks the exact peak+ bottom'' very much of the time.
THAT would make him a ''predictor + he could own most of the world IF he could do that much.
Nice looking small sample chart;
but its still a small sample chart.
Thanks for the question; as you figured, moving averages are an average+ a trend underliner or trend overliner
 
Sprout said:
Here's someone who has some distinctions.
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I could probably redo the author's chart to improve it and blow his mind. A big part of oscillators is smoothing, and these have a lot of room to grow. They have to be responsive enough for reflecting volatility, but not too responsive they don't wiggle and give false reversals. There are tricks to this. I am fascinated he created the top line, because that's his own creativity and something I'm very familiar with. However, he will eventually evolve past this imo, find more clues, and realize that line is just eye candy (as he realizes what is more important.) So I'm pretty sure this chart is 100% legit, but has to get far more sophisticated than that to be applicable to all types of volatility.

As for this type of chart vs. TA, I've never studied TA and only developed techniques for analyzing movement over time. The TA industry seems to have minimal understanding or use for the 'time' part, which imho is like being on the beach and missing the ocean.

Or not, and I'm completely off interpreting what I'm seeing.
 
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Aisone said:
I could probably redo the author's chart to improve it and blow his mind. A big part of oscillators is smoothing, and these have a lot of room to grow. They have to be responsive enough for reflecting volatility, but not too responsive they don't wiggle and give false reversals. There are tricks to this. I am fascinated he created the top line, because that's his own creativity and something I'm very familiar with. However, he will eventually evolve past this imo, find more clues, and realize that line is just eye candy (as he realizes what is more important.) So I'm pretty sure this chart is 100% legit, but has to get far more sophisticated than that to be applicable to all types of volatility.

As for this type of chart vs. TA, I've never studied TA and only developed techniques for analyzing movement over time. The TA industry seems to have minimal understanding or use for the 'time' part, which imho is like being on the beach and missing the ocean.

Or not, and I'm completely off interpreting what I'm seeing.
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Imho, you're on target with your assessment.

There's the Price and Volume Relationship
There's the Price and Time Relationship
There's the Time and Volume Relationship

All are paradigm's each with their own flock.

The Gordian Knot as expressed in a venn diagram encapsulates my understanding of the three paradigms.

Well done on developing your own techniques!
 
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Sprout said:
Imho, you're on target with your assessment.

There's the Price and Volume Relationship
There's the Price and Time Relationship
There's the Time and Volume Relationship

All are paradigm's each with their own flock.

The Gordian Knot as expressed in a venn diagram encapsulates my understanding of the three paradigms.

Well done on developing your own techniques!
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It's a never ending journey, for sure. Where do you see a volume relationship in that chart?
 
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Aisone said:
It's a never ending journey, for sure. Where do you see a volume relationship in that chart?
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It is not there explicitly, yet can be inferred by the PA and MS.

Most likely 21st to 23rd had the greatest volume for it was the Initiative Drive to reprice lower, just guessing, I could be mistaken.
 
Sprout said:
It is not there explicitly, yet can be inferred by the PA and MS.

Most likely 21st to 23rd had the greatest volume for it was the Initiative Drive to reprice lower, just guessing, I could be mistaken.
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Personally I don't think he uses volume in his indicators or signals. Or needs it. By the very nature of the analysis, it doesn't matter what drives the price change (volume or lack of, or anything else), it just matters what the price change over time is and taking advantage of relationships and dynamics that might indicate future price movement, including reversals.
 
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Aisone said:
Personally I don't think he uses it in his indicators or signals. Or needs it. By the very nature of the analysis, it doesn't matter what drives the price change (volume or lack of, or anything else), it just matters what the price change over time is and taking advantage of relationships and dynamics that might indicate future price movement.
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He might not include volume nor does his strategy "need" it.

As for whether it matters or not, that depends on one's understanding, the timeframes they trade on and how one defines continuation and change.

Price increasing on high volume is distinct from price increasing on low volume.

Absorption is a real phenomenon and only occurs as an event in a sequence of events.
Same with change of pace at re-supply at limit.

It doesn't matter if a retail trader thinks it makes a difference or not.

A move has institutional sponsorship or it does not.

ymmv
 
Sprout said:
He might not include volume nor does his strategy "need" it.

As for whether it matters or not, that depends on one's understanding, the timeframes they trade on and how one defines continuation and change.

Price increasing on high volume is distinct from price increasing on low volume.

Absorption is a real phenomenon and only occurs as an event in a sequence of events.
Same with change of pace at re-supply at limit.

It doesn't matter if a retail trader thinks it makes a difference or not.

A move has institutional sponsorship or it does not.

ymmv
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I think in comparing old school dynamics to today's, especially in major indexes, volume has become 'the greatest fraud of all time'.
 
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