Greater than 50-50, ability to predict range market?

[maxinger]

Archers aim for perfection.

Traders aim for no perfection.
If you are right 40 to 50% of the time, you are considered very good.


Your trade plan should be adjusted accordingly.

 

[padutrader]

November is historically a pretty damn bullish month

it is year ending and all institutions have to declare accounts and performance so they try to window dress

 

[Sergio123]

Yes. There is a way.

You have to trade large enough in order to move the market.

An army of math wizards would be able to predict the market if they are backed up by enough capital to move the markets.....But then again, so would an army of morons.

But if you are not backed up by enough capital to move the markets then the best that you can do is to attempt to predict what the ones with the most amount of capital are most likely to do with their capital in the future.

 

[Slope Trader]

However is it possible to predict(must not be 100% correct) when a market would be range bound(direction is irrelevant), more than 50% of the time?
Can tools like implied volatility, volume-order flow, T.A indicators be used to objectively(prove/research/backtest) predict significant greater than 50-50 a range bound market existence or persistence?

.

Can the ADX accomplish what you wish to do... have seen several trading systems that incorporate specific rules for the ADX indicator (described here).

Some of them require that it's magnitude be above 25 (or sometimes 30) to indicate that a trend is present and therefore it is okay to take entry signals in the direction of the trend. Lower numbers suggest that the market is ranging.

 

[schizo]

It is difficult to prove that anyone or tool can predict the market price direction consistently over long periods of time. That is have a win rate significantly greater than 50/50. And for those who can, or tools that can, such information is obviously not publicly know.

However is it possible to predict(must not be 100% correct) when a market would be range bound(direction is irrelevant), more than 50% of the time?

Can tools like implied volatility, volume-order flow, T.A indicators be used to objectively(prove/research/backtest) predict significant greater than 50-50 a range bound market existence or persistence?

Mr Agi1, do you get the constant urge to feel vindicated (eg. need to be right)? Trying to predict the market, especially if you're a beginner, is a futile attempt. The market won't let you anyway. But if you allow yourself to follow the market instead, it might let you in on the detail.