Greater Commodity Cycles

Quote from ammo:

spec.i noticed from your posts in es journal from about a week back that you went from if this then this, to damn sure about everthing, what changed?
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trends reaffirming themselves...signals reaffirming ...
 
Quote from Allen3:

Did you say you were a long term short equities? I think I remember you believed a sell off wouldn't happen until after Obama wins in November. If so what changed that belief? Thanks.

JIM
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yes...

I have complex hedge going on between bonds, forex, equities, commodities, I maintain a long term position and hedge for intermediate term moves.

there is always a hope with a new Presidency... the rally can be huge..then as policies are implemented, remember most Presidents institute policies to get reelected.
 
What is your exit plan? You seem to sell while the trend is still strongly upward. For example silver and gold...why exit now? Or am I reading your chart wrong.
 
Quote from rozar s'macco:

What is your exit plan? You seem to sell while the trend is still strongly upward. For example silver and gold...why exit now? Or am I reading your chart wrong.
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exit plan MA crossover exits. Not till then. The software marks to market on last sessions data.

A triple MA system takes a series of relatively small losses during chopp multi month year periods... and lets trends run till MA signal exits.
 
Heres what a large trend can do...

<a href="http://content.screencast.com/media/68e93009-6277-463e-b5c8-2a64180887d4_af258a57-ae15-4d9b-aa17-719f3d118ede_static_0_0_06292008-192052.jpg"><img src="http://content.screencast.com/media/68e93009-6277-463e-b5c8-2a64180887d4_af258a57-ae15-4d9b-aa17-719f3d118ede_static_0_0_06292008-192052.jpg" width="1546" height="732" border="0" /></a>
 
notice how the stop was hit as the system tried to enter long...

<a href="http://content.screencast.com/media/e4d5f579-51eb-4c3c-bf8e-f3138882e1e7_af258a57-ae15-4d9b-aa17-719f3d118ede_static_0_0_06292008-192402.jpg"><img src="http://content.screencast.com/media/e4d5f579-51eb-4c3c-bf8e-f3138882e1e7_af258a57-ae15-4d9b-aa17-719f3d118ede_static_0_0_06292008-192402.jpg" width="1547" height="749" border="0" /></a>
 
the system reentered the trade the next day, was able to ride it higher...

<a href="http://content.screencast.com/media/193b7271-d387-40a0-be16-c6c4805b9206_af258a57-ae15-4d9b-aa17-719f3d118ede_static_0_0_06292008-192615.jpg"><img src="http://content.screencast.com/media/193b7271-d387-40a0-be16-c6c4805b9206_af258a57-ae15-4d9b-aa17-719f3d118ede_static_0_0_06292008-192615.jpg" width="1550" height="752" border="0" /></a>
 
Spec, I am trying to figure out your scale on the right hand side in natty. It appears to be price, however, all time peak price in natty was 15.70-something, and had fallen to as low as 4.08 or so afterward. Something funky looking on your price scale.
 
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