Quote from OldTrader:
You might be successful at picking the top. But if you are, you will have done yourself a major disservice, because you will subsequently feel that you can actually pick tops successfully all the time. And therefore, whatever you will have lucked out and made on this particular stock, you will subsequently lose many times over in all your future attempts to top pick.
My suggestion to you is to forget it. If you think you should be shorting, short something that has already rolled over. Your life will be considerably easier.
OldTrader