among other reasons why game theory works is that it, like trading , is based on a derivative of behavior
iow, traders behave based on
- a trader buys because he thinks other traders will think other traders think it is a buy -
think about that long and hard. it is the essence of the psychology of trading decisions. it is a derivative. traders don't buy because they think a stock is a buy (it's not that simple). on the whole, they buy because they think others will buy (because that will drive the stock up). and they think others will buy because they think those others will perceive that OTHERs will want to buy.
this also shows how trading is different from investing.
iow, A buys because he thinks B will think that (B,D, E, F, G, H, J, K) will think it a buy
because that is what drives stocks up. demand outstripping supply . NOTHING else.
i contrast this strongly with investing. in investing you can, among other things, buy stocks that are trading at a discount to their VALUE, and then wait for prices to regress to a mean.
this works. it's also (of course) contrarian. with the short time frame of trading, stocks can remain under (or over) pricedfor much longer time frames in relation to their underlying value, and thus you need to exploit inequities in supply.demand.