Great Depression 2 underway as of July 25, 2014

[AfterLOS]

Great Depression 2: Warren Buffett


Warren is ignoring his own advice that has stood the test of time - things are going extremely well now, so well in fact that when you combine it with the general atmosphere outside Berkshire which is S&P will never go down its a new era etc.,

invokes Warren's advice = SELL, sell, sell, retreat to a bear cave and enjoy your spoils of war.

But will he follow this? Heck no. Why?

Because BEAR destroys bullmarket gurus like a knife thru' butter and in Warren's case will take the one thing away from him that he most values = MONEY & prestige = both bogus items in opinion of AfterLOS because beings are by fundamental nature devoid of complexity and material wealth.

Bye bye Warren

 

[AfterLOS]

Great Depression 2: Japan

7.1% contraction = deflation acceleration

 

[AfterLOS]

Great Depression 2: Lesson in Sentiment applied to Euro

Everybody hates the Euro now = only 4% bulls = 96% bears

So how would ET gurus view this? = SELL, SELL, SELL

Wrong!!!

Take short profits and wait for signal to go LONG

 

[AfterLOS]

Great Depression 2: beneficiary of GD2 is Dollar or Gold????

If Gold breaks down its going to $900 so it would be out. If Gold is out, then its the dollar.

But sentiment right now is sooooo bearish gold. Does the market ever give the majority's wish?

More thought on this one over the next few days

--------------------------------

Regarding the dollar though just before the 2007 top in stocks the dollar had been crashing bigtime for a long time.

The sentiment against the dollar was bigtime bearish, then came these 2 magazine covers calling for Dollar DEATH

Aha! AfterLOS knew immediately = get ready, dollar bottom soon

Recently before the dollar rally began there was a lot of talk about reserve currency status being taken away and going to Russia+China+Iran = Dinar backed by gold or some such talk

= another hint

 

[AfterLOS]

Great Depression 2: Secession USA inevitable. What state to go with? CA

There has been talk from Texas and other states thus far

Let's see how the referendum on the United Kingdom\Scotland goes

The Iron curtain came down

Now the British Empire could come apart.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/the-scotsman-who-forced-the-u-k-to-the-brink-of-disunion-1410305684

 

[Dr_BVCC]

Why say the thread is a trainwreck - what value is there in that?
You haven't posted a chart for your thoughts on gold .. do you have one showing why you feel 1354 is coming? How much lower before 1354?

As i said in my post if 1240 breaks then 1354 is off the table. No chart. It is a calculation based on the monthly chart.

Not in any trades on it, i was only saying that based on my analysis that i thought it would go to that number as long as 1240 holds.


Not looking so good anyway atm.

 

[aquarian1]

@AfterLOS

You have several points in your post.
Looking at a latter one on time equality I posted (not here at ET) and interesting note
The high was 2011 (ES sept) on Wed 3 Sept
Sunday 7 Sept was 2011 days after the low in March 09
(Fri, Mar 6, 2009)

The low was 665.75 ES and 666 SPX

 

[nemesis45]

All I see are numbers and technicals. Don't really expect the world to go down even if fed starts raising rates. If it was easy to pick the top I'd be a millionaire. Will prolly go and hit another high. The public wasn't in the rally.

 

[AfterLOS]

All I see are numbers and technicals. Don't really expect the world to go down even if fed starts raising rates. If it was easy to pick the top I'd be a millionaire. Will prolly go and hit another high. The public wasn't in the rally.

All you're telling me is that you are a member of the HERD = YAWN

 

[AfterLOS]

Great Depression 2: Dow Jones reversal is the ONLY factor that will start the avalanche = GD2

All previous market tops had COMPLACENCY in spades. How about this TOP that I'm working on?
If you study history, you know that no one thought the price of tulips, houses, or stocks would ever go down

See for thyselves: current TOP's crowd think

Everyone believes the U.S. stock market has reached a permanently high plateau.

Last week’s Investors Intelligence survey showed bearish sentiment at its lowest since 1987 (13.3%). In fact, short-sellers have nearly disappeared along with the few remaining bears. In addition, the VIX is at historic lows (near 12), which reflects investor complacency.

Put another way, almost no one believes this market will go down.

Morgan Stanley analysts call conservatively for SPX 3,000

University of Pennsylvania professor Jeremy Siegel also made a prediction: On CNBC, he said that the Dow will be at 18,000 before the end of the year.

Dow has shrugged off all geopolitical problems, high debt, low market volume, high complacency = no fear sentiment readings = low Vix ....... and other warning signs