Great Depression 2 underway as of July 25, 2014

Keep the advice and criticisms coming, amigos. Everyone welcome. :)

Denial? Terrible trader? Breaking all the rules of Bulletin board traders? Dyin ain't much of a livin?

All true with yours truly. Guilty as sin. :)

Update:

S&P poked above top = nail #1 in coffin.

Dow Jones still not there

Gold: no change in positions all LONGs still in my possession. STOP is cast in stone @ June 3rd low hair below

Great Depression CALL still on. :)
 
FACTS


Just a reminder of some historical facts for my esteemed critics: :) The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible. I'm one such fool. But is ET exempt?

The answer will shock the masses of gurus at ET - see below


At the March 6, 2009 Bear market low:

Not a single ET-er saw it coming - see for yourselves, use the search engine, easy to see.

And the geniuses of the Financial world didn't either

Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway Inc. posted its worst results ever in 2008, told CNBC today that the economy “has fallen off a cliff” and that efforts to stimulate recovery may lead to inflation higher than the 1970s.

The global economy is likely to shrink for the first time since World War II and trade will decline by the most in 80 years, the World Bank said yesterday. Its assessment is more pessimistic than an International Monetary Fund report in January predicting 0.5 percent global growth this year.

“We’re going to continue to see very volatile markets,” said Ron Rimkus, a money manager for Raleigh-based BB&T Asset Management, which oversees $17 billion. “There’s nothing good going on in terms of the economy.”






 
AfterLOS said:
FACTS


Just a reminder of some historical facts for my esteemed critics: :) The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible. I'm one such fool. But is ET exempt?

The answer will shock the masses of gurus at ET - see below


At the March 6, 2009 Bear market low:

Not a single ET-er saw it coming - see for yourselves, use the search engine, easy to see.

And the geniuses of the Financial world didn't either

Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway Inc. posted its worst results ever in 2008, told CNBC today that the economy “has fallen off a cliff” and that efforts to stimulate recovery may lead to inflation higher than the 1970s.

The global economy is likely to shrink for the first time since World War II and trade will decline by the most in 80 years, the World Bank said yesterday. Its assessment is more pessimistic than an International Monetary Fund report in January predicting 0.5 percent global growth this year.

“We’re going to continue to see very volatile markets,” said Ron Rimkus, a money manager for Raleigh-based BB&T Asset Management, which oversees $17 billion. “There’s nothing good going on in terms of the economy.”
More...
Sorry to burst your bubble but Buffett was buying in 2009.
 
AfterLos wouldn't dream of attacking the people who are kind enough to criticize and critique my folly and\or stupidity: :) but some sobering facts are revisited


FACT:


The October 2007 Top pre-CRASH of 2008:

Not a single ET-er saw it coming - use search engine, eeeeeezy to see - in fact there is an entire thread that went something like, "jump in free money, easy money, don't be a fool pile in" - and dig this, ET-er were buying the dips well into May 2008 - and then dig this, they vanished for a year to heal their wounds and returned as if nothing had happened.

AfterLOS has read the pages - why? SENTIMENT analysis.
 
FACT:

The October 2007 pre-crash TOP:

Behold the gurus of the financial world:

see below extract from post #6 of this thread :)
Morgan Stanley's other famous Hi-So gurus and fiends, Ben Bernanke & Henry Paulson from the October 2007 pre-CRASH top and their legendary anal-ysis:

June 20th, 2007 – Bernanke: The mortgage debacle “will not affect the economy overall.''
July 12th, 2007 – Paulson: "This is far and away the strongest global economy I've seen in my business lifetime."
August 1st, 2007 – Paulson: "I see the underlying economy as being very healthy,"
October 15th, 2007 – Bernanke: "It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve - nor would it be appropriate - to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions."
May 7, 2008 – Paulson: 'The worst is likely to be behind us . . . . ”
May 16th, 2008 – Paulson: "In my judgment, we are closer to the end of the market turmoil than the beginning."
July 16th, 2008 – Bernanke: On Freddie and Fannie: “They will make it through the storm”, "… in no danger of failing.","…adequately capitalized"
Only two months later both were nationalized.
February 14th, 2008 – Paulson: (the economy) "is fundamentally strong, diverse and resilient."

 
Conclusion based on examination of the facts:

AS far as seeing anything coming, ET-ers couldn't takeout a burger out of a takeout stand.

But Your Honor, they claim to not care about direction so knowing about impending reversals on the larger timeframes is not necessary as they only trade on nanosecond charts and even that might be considered long-term.

But here's the fallacy:

Nanosecond, 1-min or whatever charts have reversals too of the same type as their larger brethren which is clear since we are dealing with fractals.
redbox said:
Sorry to burst your bubble but Buffett was buying in 2009.
More...


I can forgive a man anything, but a man who does not even get his FACTS right ..............

Buffett ran into criticism[43] during the subprime crisis of 2007–2008, part of the recession that started in 2007, that he had allocated capital too early resulting in suboptimal deals. "Buy American. I am." he wrote for an opinion piece published in the New York Times in 2008.[44] Buffett called the downturn in the financial sector that started in 2007 "poetic justice".[45] Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway suffered a 77% drop in earnings during Q3 2008 and several of his later deals suffered large mark-to-market losses.[46]

according to Forbes, Buffett lost $25 billion over a 12-month period during 2008/2009.[53]
 
At the very bottom of the BEAR in March 2009

In March 2009, Buffett said in a cable television interview that the economy had "fallen off a cliff ... Not only has the economy slowed down a lot, but people have really changed their habits like I haven't seen". Additionally, Buffett feared that inflation levels that occurred in the 1970s—which led to a painful stagflation that lasted many years—might re-emerge.[57][58]
 
At the very bottom of the BEAR in March 2009

In 2009, Buffett divested his failed investment in ConocoPhillips, saying to his Berkshire investors,
I bought a large amount of ConocoPhillips stock when oil and gas prices were near their peak. I in no way anticipated the dramatic fall in energy prices that occurred in the last half of the year. I still believe the odds are good that oil sells far higher in the future than the current $40–$50 price. But so far I have been dead wrong. Even if prices should rise, moreover, the terrible timing of my purchase has cost Berkshire several billion dollars.[64]
 
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