Quote from Kicking:
How I trade for a living by Gary Smith
many will disagree perhaps but it 's certainly one of the best book on trading and psychology out there and an entertaining read as well.
Here's a link to a post of his on 8/11/05 on traders-talk.
http://traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=39562&hl=
"Even though I am still a bull and believe Dow 11000 will be taken out this year, the markets don't care much about our opinions and recent price movement makes it difficult to be a blind bull. It always pays to question our trading convictions, positions and envision worst case scenarios and I do that throughout the day (and night for that matter) What bothers me the most is the breakdown recently in so many formerly strong sectors such as the homebuilders, REITs, Retailers, and large cap biotech, to name just a few. Also, the past two weeks have seen the second heaviest two week period for secondaries and IPOs ever according to Trimtabs. If this high level continues over the near term it could spell real trouble for stocks. As for today, I would be surprised if we trace out the exact pattern as yesterday and for the exact same reasons (oil) Meaning we should close near the highs.
The positives I see (besides my usual spiel on the world being awash in cash) are the fact that bulls are beginning to question this market, the recent improvements in the Rydex asset levels, the continuing low levels of specialist shorting vs. the public and the fact the major indexes are still hanging close to recent highs in spite of the oil spike. On that later point I will say though this reminds me a bit, but in reverse, of the end of April where I saw a lot of strong stocks in strong sectors eventually lead the major indexes up whereas now I worry that a lot of those stocks that are breaking down could lead those indexes down.
What I don't want is to get whipsawed by going too heavy to cash believing that every minor correction is the beginning of some new bear market. There have been very, very few times since the 3/03 bottom where I have found that a 100% cash position has been effective for me.
I presently hold five stocks, which of course could change at a moment's notice - GLW (Corning) TRID (Trident Microsystems) SNDK (Sandisk) CAT (Caterpillar) and Wiley&Sons (JW.A) and two funds - the Fairholme fund (FAIRX), and an emerging markets fund (LZOEX) The trading theme seems to be anything overseas more than domestic and plan to get more heavy there if price action cooperates.
Other than any responses to this post, I plan on being more of an observer of board sentiment here and a lurker through yearend"