Grass growing

M

macroman

Have now 3 systems, one trade duration 1 day, second duration 1 week and third duration 1 year. Trade only indices and currencies with occasional stock trade. Results are satisfactory.

Now want to add fourth system - longterm based on fundametals only, for diversifcation.

I did a bit of papertrading & small bets stuff before this and results look ok. So ready for slightly larger bets.

Trade 1: my assets are 100% in AUD. sell aud by averaging into eur, usd and maybe other currencies. euraud started buying at 1.25, audusd started selling 1.05. Taking profits at couple of % appreciation. AU economy suffers from high AUD and property prices. My bet is that deleveraging will be done largerly by AUD deprecitaion, similar to UK & not by recession & property crash. Even if that is the case AUD should ease a bit so should profit as well. Interest is working against me for now. Will allow in my order net for eur to drop to 0.7 and usd to appreciate to 1.7.
 
nope, did not like the idea. Dropped trade 1 for now for minor profit. Interesting how one gets anwers ony under weight of position. Large risk for small gains.

So far bit over 10% up this year. No trade turned into a real profit. Only stoplosses after getting into positive territory. Nothing special after considering that my bet size is 10% of account :eek:

But it appears that suits me as it keeps me alert and not sloppy which is main reason for losses.
 
au property speculation is really financed by mining industry. For example Melbourne has near 5m people, yet there is no strategic position except supplying Tasmania which could be done with 5K town. Founding fathers created city and put in manufacturing. Which is now gone near 100%.

So the only thing left to do there is speculation in property. And they have one - extreme. 3-4 times prices up is not uncommon in 20 years.

When this breaks down, banks will suffer. But they have large pool of retirement money that they will 'temporarily' access. So, taxpayer will pay for it. This explains why AUD may not be affected and is so strong despite data showing prices coming off.

Also there is another factor. AU mining will move out of AU, copying US ones, the trend will accelerate in my opinion once queen gives up her job. This will decrease mining 'patriot' tax receipts in a big way.

Holding AU mining companies seems the safest way to avoid these risks.
 
Quote from C99:

aw man... I thought this was gonna be about weed :cool:
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fundamental system only. Missing piece in my repertoar.

been around long enough to know that one system does not work all the time.
 
Quote from macroman:

long term sell signal for yen.

looking for 127 usjy.

100 pts stop.
More...

If stop is hit my view will not change. So why have stop ?

Attempting to load bigger position than if simply buy usjy with 5% stop (always have stops unles physical position). End of trends are sometimes violent. If stopped will reenter on technical signal. Will stop/reevaluate the game if new low reached.
 
Quote from macroman:

long term sell signal for yen.

looking for 127 usjy.

100 pts stop.
More...

going (too) nice. Breaking TL. However, my position now feels too small - insignificant. Have been too conservative and not trusting my signal enough to go for right size.
At least my trade stats get enriched in desired direction. :cool:

Better next time.
 
250 pts pl in usjy. what a call & move !!!

Out. Quick money good money.

well done mm :cool:



last 10 trades one loss of 0.08 risk. No, no swinging dick yet.
 
finally got bleeding nose. lose 0.8 risk on shorting euus. A bit of revenge trade as did not load usjy what i should, or so i think. Also first sell on euus did not execute and had to watch it sink to 1.3.

So, i paid the price.

Longterm trading is easy. But waiting for usjy to get to 127 is not what i can do (with leverage) and waste couple of years.

So I dropped idea and decided to chose swing trading vechicle as it is can get me there the fastest way. Initial bet size set so that have to increase it 8 times to get where i want to be sizewise.
Hope 10 trades will do.
 
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