Grains To The Moon
- Thread starter myminitrading
- Start date
thanx.thats what i meant
You really expect the new crop to turn up that high again, prof? Are global supplies really that depleted?
(Just asking - you seem to know more about this than I do...)
(Just asking - you seem to know more about this than I do...)
I'm a chartist and could care less what the talking heads "think" prices will do. I've learned that weather and global supplies are relative to time and how the information is applied. I only care about and trust what I can see happening in real-time.
I didn't say specifically price would go up to $8.33 but as soon as the current bottom confirms, price WILL go back up toward $8.33. Considering that is less than $.70 from the current price level that isn't such a stretch of the imagination.
No one figured the price of January 2008 Soybeans would hit $10 a bushel but yesterday it topped again at $11.73.
"The past is little help on seeing where price will be in the future, hindsight is 20/20 but live chart action is never wrong." ME
i quit trading them a couple weeks ago they are just too crazy
If you read the closing comments for each CBOT grain at the end of the day you will see that every day there is a different excuse for why the market did what it did that day. After it is all said and done grain futures are basically insurance for the big end users. Add to that the commodity funds who throw their weight around and you are up against some pretty big movers and shakers. If you are going to trade the grains on a regular basis (I don't) you have to be devoid of any opinions as to market sentiment . . . and be prepared for anything.
Great Advice! I have been trying to trade grains for about 1 year and you have hit the nail on the head! I have found that the charts can help you, but you had better have deep pockets and strong conviction - as the grains will push you like no other market.
I have had my best trading days in the grains (caught the wheat breakout back in June) and I have lost 25% of my account in less than 5 min (wheat again).
Lessons I have learned - The grains are for the seasoned pro's. On the other hand, how will you ever become a seasoned pro if you don't jump in and take your lumps???
Happy Holidays & Happy Trading
I think Bingoking has a point here. Look at the chart that goes attached. There is an obvious bearish divergence in the September-November period. At the end of November even seasoned traders/analysts had a bearish sentiment that a break could be iminent. But then see what happened. On the other hand those are the rules of the game. You always have a chance to be wrong and anything is possible.
ProfLogic:
What do you mean by "real-time" price action? Do you mean day-to-day price action, support/resistance levels, momentum, trend direction?
You state you have been long grains for a long time. Do you use a discretionary approach or a systematic one? Which is your criteria, say, to decide that a bull move like this could be unfolding and holding your positions? Also, if you are going to wait for a break to exit your longs, how do you decide that the trend has changed?
Do you expect a pullback toward the 9.75-10.00 area for a possible February break? Thanks.
wheat has major support at the 9.00 level give or take. I fully expect to see another run but 10.00 is as high as it can get imo. I am still very bearish on wheat next year, a great trade will be the famous wheat corn spread. buy july corn sell july wheat, im telling you corn will be plus 5.00 and wheat will be 6.00 ish. mark my words