Grains To The Moon

infolode · Nov 17, 2007

Quote from FCostella:

Ain't no thing as long as you are capitalized.

I've yet to find a speculator "that" capitalized. Mind if I watch?

ProfLogic · Nov 17, 2007

Quote from FCostella:

Wheat taken down. Beans, corn, and rice are next.

C'mon this stuff grows out of the ground. They literally are making it all the time. Supply will catch up with demand.

Unless this is Egypt in 1700 BC.

??? Excuse me.

Even if they put all of the conservation land in to production tomorrow (which is impossible because it would take years to get the soil in decent shape) there would be barely enough to cover demand.

If the rest of the worls would ever get their poop in one bag it would be a different story but that isn't likely to happen anytime soon either.

Cutten · Nov 19, 2007

Quote from stupididiot:

I think of this every time I hear "Beans in the Teens!"

Lol that's a funny chart. Just remember that one day it will break out and keep going! FWIW I have been surprised by the *lack* of attention soybeans have been getting recently.

FCostella · Nov 19, 2007

Quote from Cutten:

Lol that's a funny chart. Just remember that one day it will break out and keep going! FWIW I have been surprised by the *lack* of attention soybeans have been getting recently.

That's the bullish thing beans have going for it.

ProfLogic · Nov 27, 2007

Quote from youngtrader:

You are wrong on your first point. July is a new crop month. That means if we are trading july wheat we are trading the wheat that is currently growing in the ground right now (and yes there is a lot of it), not the stuff that countries are buying and is stored in the bin. July period is the time that farmers are harvesting the wheat and july is typically a really weak contract month in wheat do to the fact of increased farmer selling and harvest pressure. Farmers are seeing even now about double the price of wheat that they have historically seen. The best part is they don't have to store it (major cost in physical commodities)! They can litterally take it right out of the combine and sell it. Now being on a farm in Iowa myself I can say that this is the way most farmers thinks. If they are getting nice prices around harvest time they are going to sell it. Also the odds of us having a black swan event that results in terrible yeilds for 3 straight years is out of the question. The demand has not really been anything special its just that since old crop stocks are so low any type of demand takes wheat off the world market and moves prices higher but with normal stocks it wouldn't nearly as much.

Im usually not much of a technical trader but we are deffinantly consolidating in a range on july. With the fundamentals I spoke of earlier and the seasonal weakness of the july contract I just am selling near the top of the range and think I can honestly pick up about a buck on the trade.

As of Friday July 08 eWheat hit US$7.28 a bushel.

Was I wrong . . . nope!

FCostella · Nov 27, 2007

Quote from ProfLogic:

As of Friday July 08 eWheat hit US$7.28 a bushel.

If it hits 800, start shorting. Until then, neutral - selling straddles and strangles.

youngtrader · Nov 27, 2007

Proflogic my hats off to you man! I never would have thought we would trade that high in july wheat and I have lost a few bucks on this recent rally. Once again great call but I still think im right in the long term.

Rtrader2525 · Nov 27, 2007

i agree with young trader, but proflogic was very right and i think the charets are looking kinda bullish for both march nad july but just wait my friends export season is starting very soon, until then happy trading. and look to bear spread july march when it hits -1.50 that is one hell of a trade

ProfLogic · Nov 27, 2007

Quote from youngtrader:

Proflogic my hats off to you man! I never would have thought we would trade that high in july wheat and I have lost a few bucks on this recent rally. Once again great call but I still think im right in the long term.

Long range it will pull back but not until we breach substantially to the downside, we will continue to play up here.

Bingoking · Nov 28, 2007

Quote from Rtrader2525:

. . .until then happy trading. and look to bear spread july march when it hits -1.50 that is one hell of a trade

I have 3 friends who work the pit at MGX. From what I gather the vast majority of their trades are spreads. They are always looking for ways to hedge. I do not trade the grains but I like to keep an eye on them. I pretty much just trade the ES.