Grains & Softs

[schizo]

Quote from schizo:

ZW and other grains seem to be putting in a base here. As mentioned above, I'm of the opinion that macroeconomic perspective surrounding the current global crises from Middle East to Japan indicates that food prices can only go up in the near term. Hence, I'm bullish going forward.

WHEAT has since come roaring back and the smell of blood left in the wake of short covering still lingers in the air. My newbie hunch is that we will initially go up and test the neckline. There will be some posturing by the stubborn bears but eventually it will cave under pressure exerted by the bulls. I believe we will retest the high.

Sugar again plunged today towards the neckline. I believe the H&S pattern will be stamped once we cross below that line. The target remains at 2311.

SUGAR indeed plunged below the neckline. It's currently retracing back up to the neckline where I believe it will once again reverse and resume the downtrend.

Cocoa and Coffee remain weak. Although coffee made a intraday U-turn, which is always a worrisome sign, I remain bearish. I think there should be at least 1 or 2 more days of drop. As alluded to earlier, the targets for cocoa and coffee are 3200 and 260, respectively.

Consult the chart in the previous post. You will note that both COCOA and COFFEE are poised to make the right shoulder of the H&S. As a matter of fact, it looks eerily similar to the move already made by WHEAT. My view is that we make the right shoulder and sell off.

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from schizo:

WHEAT has since come roaring back and the smell of blood left in the wake of short covering still lingers in the air. My newbie hunch is that we will initially go up and test the neckline. There will be some posturing by the stubborn bears but eventually it will cave under pressure exerted by the bulls. I believe we will retest the high.

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Good points;
most all the longer term charts are bullish/ uptrending

50 day moving average is bearish/still downtrending,
60 day price are still bearish/still downternding. Still bearish for those time frames. Not a prediction;
just probabilities

 

[increasenow]

***Corn, Wheat and Soybeans are all in a "holding" horizontal pattern ahead of This Thursdays HUGE crop announcement

***for Sugar, 26.00 is proving to be HUGE support...probably will follow Grains lead...

 

[GammaTheta]

@ schizo coffee holding that 260 price pretty well.

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from local:

The fundamentals for beans have changed siginificantly over the past several weeks. Chinese demand for beans has shifted to S.A., this has become apparent from the weekly sales or lack thereof. Should also be obvious from old crop/new crop spreads falling apart. This combined with record long position by funds has changed the picture, demand led rally over the past eight months at a standstill/rolling over with market extremely long.

Weakness in beans spilling over to corn, with new crop beans dropping, $6 new crop corn should attract a large increase in acres, funds also long record levels of corn. Not good. All this at historically high prices.

Regards, local

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local;
Nice trend remark on 2-22-beans
Not a prediction, because the long term trends of beans[wheat,corn, +alternative grains] are still strongly uptrending.Beans still below 50 day moving average.

murray TT

As far as medium term /short term trends, [beans, corn, wheat +alternative grains], personally, i wish to see all of those short /medium term trends turn bearish. But those[my] fundamental desires take time to show down on price data.

Dont trade only off fundamental desires myself, but like the man who shorted Citicorp said, eventually those win [medium term trends].Long term, all those mentioned [except Citicorp];
have strong uptrends.