Today I bought 1 September corn at 240.50 and sold 1 November soybeans at 611.00. I will add another corn contract in the future to make the spread more even. I am currently breaking even on this spread.
Grains Journal
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Corn demand is very strong this year due to ethanol, China becoming a possible net importer, corn being used in more food products, large livestock numbers, and very strong exports in general. If the yield this year comes in or is perceived to come in anywhere below 158,we could stocks to use ratios as low as they were in 03/04. With such high demand the corn crop can not afford any mistakes. I am betting that there will be at least a few problems or scares in the next couple month. World corn stocks are at extreme lows as well.
I just covered my soybeans at 4 cent profit and added another contract to my corn position. Weather has appeared good this last couple weeks and should remain good through the weekend. I am hypothesising that the weather has not been as good this last couple week for corn as claimed and that weather forecast next week could call for hotter drier weather for the beginning of July. My opinion seems contrary to most of what I have been reading and hearing, hopefully if the market comes around to my view there will be a nice run up in prices. If Mondays weather report comes in bearish and prices are down I will cover quickly.
Sold my corn for a 4 cent loss because my hypothesis did not come true. I am now interested in purchasing wheat, especially the KC type. I will do more research and wait for a pull back though.
I bought KC wheat the other day at 503.5. I would have liked to get in at a lower price but I could not resist so I just bought in for one contract. The weather looks very hot and dry for the next few weeks in ND and MT damaging the HRS wheat crops. Plus it might rain on the not yet harvested HRW wheat crops in TX making the crops worthless. India just bought lots of wheat and has lowered there import tariffs significantly on the demand side. The market in general is eating up the bullish news and spitting away they bearish news. Today the IGC came out with a report saying that world wheat crops will be higher then expected, the market dropped for a little then shot back up. There are two large reports tomorrow dealing with acres and grain stocks, I will hold through these reports due to my weather bias.
Technically, which I look at because other people do, the market looks great with crosses of the moving averages and the MACD. The market looks like it is targeting the new highs. Bad news is that it recently rained on Australia's wheat crop and if there is forecast for rain in the northern plains this market could gap down very fast.
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Technically, which I look at because other people do, the market looks great with crosses of the moving averages and the MACD. The market looks like it is targeting the new highs. Bad news is that it recently rained on Australia's wheat crop and if there is forecast for rain in the northern plains this market could gap down very fast.
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Sold my wheat at a profit, I will re-buy Monday or Wednesday.