grain spreaders

Quote from options4me:

I just on the sideline w/ beans until next Dec. Way too wide to try to enter a spread now.
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Just remember guys, they call the N/X bean spread "THE KILLER" for a reason. It's volatile.
 
Quote from grainmerchant:

Just remember guys, they call the N/X bean spread "THE KILLER" for a reason. It's volatile.
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Check out n/x 2010, trading in a 45-60 range recently I'm short average of 55. Also my long oil short meal spreads have been working well, looking to ring register soon.
 
Quote from Darin Newsom:

Youngtrader, that is an excellent question. We have to consider a couple of different things. 1) As you noted, July corn is in delivery though no contracts have been delivered. This can, and often does, lead to some peculiar behavior in the spreads. 2) Export SALES are strong. Last week's report showed total sales of 1.741 bb of a projected 1.75 bb. This means that there is some short-term commercial demand in this market that is helping to support the spot-month July.
The weakening carry in the new-crop spreads is fascinating as well, for as you said, carryover stocks are not going to be a problem, and neither is expected production at this point. But, the weakening carry (roughly 65 percent to 70 percent of full commercial carry) in the new-crop Dec/Mar, Mar/May, and May/July spreads would indicate the sharp selloff seen in the market over the last four weeks is starting to generate some commercial buying interest.
However, the longer-term picture is not bullish. I posted a blog item this morning looking at the corn continuous monthly chart and its bearish signals. It will be interesting to see what develops.
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Darin

Excellent post and I agree with you. It has to be commercials just finding value down here and must be totally a short term cash issue now. However I would imagine most of this gets resolved by sep delivery so I think im gonna take this opportunity to start bearspreading for roll in u/z

great post though! will be good to have somebody like you on ET
 
Quote from grainmerchant:

Just remember guys, they call the N/X bean spread "THE KILLER" for a reason. It's volatile.
More...
Looking at seasonal charts, Dec, going into Jan would be the best opportunity to start a bean spread (N/X)...that is why I am waiting.
 
Covered meal:oil spreads today, oat corn getting to 1.00 premo soon. I will see how it acts at that level and may be looking to ring the register soon.
 
saw this on the wires ...

"Soybean basis is in a total collapse.
Nobody wants
to own soybeans."

now if only my soybean drink will get cheaper

at the store



:p
 
Quote from SethArb:

saw this on the wires ...

"Soybean basis is in a total collapse.
Nobody wants
to own soybeans."

:p
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Shit, nobody wants to own anything right now except corn. In our area...wheat yields coming in even worse than expected (HRW), and yet basis widens out another 15 cents...we are looking at 90 under the Dec board right now. Beans not a big crop here...but basis widening on that too...corn saw an uptick though...up a nickel to 10 over the Dec right now...still below our historical avg of 25 over though.
 
I missed a great soybean short on the q/v, q/x and others... they were in my notebook for today's trades, and I missed them as they were so fast out the gate... damn... guess I should place trades in the overnight, but seems riskier...
 
Quote from day4night:

I missed a great soybean short on the q/v, q/x and others... they were in my notebook for today's trades, and I missed them as they were so fast out the gate... damn... guess I should place trades in the overnight, but seems riskier...
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hold on a bit...you'll probably get a second chance tomorrow...we have the big bean numbers come out on friday...that should help set the tone on these final old/new spreads.
 
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