Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

Laissez Faire said:
I don't look at single tickers. The thread title is "Gotta love ZERO RISK in the S&P 500". The thread was started in 2007 with the claim being "928 days since the SP500 had a one day decline of >2%". So, clearly, "risk free" markets ain't nothing new this year.

Just pointing out the flaws in your statements, i.e., no retracements, when we had multiple minor corrections last year.

As for the tech bubble comparison - I wouldn't know. But from what I've picked up NVIDIA have fairly strong earnings. Maybe those other companies you mentioned, too. With the tech bubble I believe many of the stocks did not.
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In 4 months SPY has risen more than $100 with the single biggest drawdown being only $13 (which is about a 2.5 % decline). For SPY to correct 5% it would have to drop about $25. You really think that will happen? Sure it's happened in the past, but we have never had such a risk free market before.

And NVDA strong earnings totally justifies it being worth 2 trillion? OK sure. I don't believe it should be valued that high, but it doesn't matter what I think since it will continue to go up since it can't be stopped.
 
v-shape-0DTE said:
In 4 months SPY has risen more than $100 with the single biggest drawdown being only $13 (which is about a 2.5 % decline). For SPY to correct 5% it would have to drop about $25. You really think that will happen? Sure it's happened in the past, but we have never had such a risk free market before.
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Of course it will. Why wouldn't it?

The market corrected 10 % last fall prior to this recent rally.

Here's the latest rally starting late October last year plotted with a green line. Logarithmic scale.

As can be easily seen - this latest rally is just a small blip on a long term trend up which is the norm for the US indices.

So, no, you're wrong on both counts. We've most certainly have had 'such a risk free market' in the past and we will correct again some time in the future. When is anyone's guess.

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Pricechange said:
Rick is letting us finally realize...that he was right all along. Once we finally start to gain true wisdom and show it here on the board...he will again speak to us.
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I feel better about the S&P 500 short here. Ditch the crypto short.

$SPX is showing a significant upper Chanel perfume squirt on the monthly linear scale. And the Dow still rides the 1929/2000 upper channel, close enough for jazz here.


Hopefully Rick comes back at the exact bottom to enlighten us.
 
JamBoy said:
I feel better about the S&P 500 short here. Ditch the crypto short.

$SPX is showing a significant upper Chanel perfume squirt on the monthly linear scale. And the Dow still rides the 1929/2000 upper channel, close enough for jazz here.


Hopefully Rick comes back at the exact bottom to enlighten us.
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How do you feel about the short now?
 
SMCI up 48% in the past week....1 week .....

The trajectory of stocks and entire market is something we have mever ever seen.....these aren't normal markets....
 
I heard tonight if you strip out amd Broadcom and nvdia from the nasdaq, the nassdaq would actually be under performing the s&p

So once again only a handful of stocks running the market.
 
I missed the early-week dip and it is turning out to be as painful as one would imagine. If the FOMC is as timid as is expected, we could be looking at a 2017 or 2019 scenario. which were melt-up years..
 
Overnight said:
I missed the early-week dip and it is turning out to be as painful as one would imagine. If the FOMC is as timid as is expected, we could be looking at a 2017 or 2019 scenario. which were melt-up years..
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Should I be concerned that you are coming on board? lol
 
Overnight said:
I missed the early-week dip and it is turning out to be as painful as one would imagine. If the FOMC is as timid as is expected, we could be looking at a 2017 or 2019 scenario. which were melt-up years..
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Volmageddon 2.0 could be right around the corner. Of course we would need a VIX move of 9 to 50+ in 4 weeks.
 
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