Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

Nine_Ender said:
You missed my point. Option expiry impact was in full evidence on Friday and today. It is a rare month when stocks don't drop between roughly 10 am and 3 pm on these days. There is almost always a rebound either after 3 pm Friday ( sometimes as late as 3:50 pm ), on the open Monday, or both. It's actually something you can trade. Myself, I try not to overdo the short term trades but if I am planning on selling stuff, I do so Thursday late day and possibly very early Friday. I look for oversold conditions Friday afternoon.

This month was kind of flat I just made one move ( sold Gold miner EQX added shares to two of my energy positions ATH and ARX; so far that switch looks good but TSX doesn't open until tomorrow ). I still like EQX but it's behaving erratically short term, and I wanted to increase my energy weightings.
More...
Yes ok - I got your point the first time. Still missing mine though.

So what impacted the Russell eMini today again at the 10 o'clock hour - 10:02am? While all the others chugged higher.
 
SunTrader said:
Yes ok - I got your point the first time. Still missing mine though.

So what impacted the Russell eMini today again at the 10 o'clock hour - 10:02am? While all the others chugged higher.
More...

Sorry I don't actively follow US indexes right now except as a broader indicator. Perhaps the exact time of selling is due to something you follow. Just like Gold/Silver prices often drop in price ( sometimes by a lot ) between 2 am and 3:30 am est. I'm not sure exactly why other then manipulation on the world markets. Broader indicators I use as red flags when I need to start pulling positions short term to reduce risk. However, when it's short term manipulation I try not to overreact to it. Perhaps what you were referring to is very relevant to what you trade.
 
Nine_Ender said:
Sorry I don't actively follow US indexes right now except as a broader indicator. Perhaps the exact time of selling is due to something you follow. Just like Gold/Silver prices often drop in price ( sometimes by a lot ) between 2 am and 3:30 am est. I'm not sure exactly why other then manipulation on the world markets. Broader indicators I use as red flags when I need to start pulling positions short term to reduce risk. However, when it's short term manipulation I try not to overreact to it. Perhaps what you were referring to is very relevant to what you trade.
More...
Gann fan projected from globex overnight low (Gann fan projected down from yesterday's high 10:02am nearly almost caught low of RTH start today as well):-
R2K Gann fan.png
 
FOMC keeps all asset prices elevated. Homes, cars, stocks, food, fuel. Pay up and up and up. Days of discounts seem gone. This is what happens when you let central banks manage your economy.
 
Master Pu said:
Great! Super inflation it is then.
More...

Except that it's not super inflation. Obviously some of you don't remember the 1980s. Or even remember 2009-2011 enough to understand long commodity stocks can be an awfully good trade in an economic recovery. If inflation truly kicks in like some think, then Gold is going to at least $3000. My guess $2200-2300 is coming for sure on our current path.

I mentioned this March 2020 that this site got a lot like 2009/2010 with conspiracy theories, doomsday theories, and a whole lot of exaggeration. The world didn't collapse after that subprime mortgage disaster and that was a far bigger potential lasting problem then Covid ever was to stock markets.
 
Nine_Ender said:
Except that it's not super inflation. Obviously some of you don't remember the 1980s. Or even remember 2009-2011 enough to understand long commodity stocks can be an awfully good trade in an economic recovery. If inflation truly kicks in like some think, then Gold is going to at least $3000. My guess $2200-2300 is coming for sure on our current path.

I mentioned this March 2020 that this site got a lot like 2009/2010 with conspiracy theories, doomsday theories, and a whole lot of exaggeration. The world didn't collapse after that subprime mortgage disaster and that was a far bigger potential lasting problem then Covid ever was to stock markets.
More...

But you can't guarantee it won't happen though. Drawing examples from recent past does not warrant QE+more debt will not eventually trigger world wide high, maybe even hyper, inflation. You just don't know this.
 
Master Pu said:
But you can't guarantee it won't happen though. Drawing examples from recent past does not warrant QE+more debt will not eventually trigger world wide high, maybe even hyper, inflation. You just don't know this.
More...

I play probabilities and too many short term traders have unreasonable ideas on long term moves. Like expecting 30% crashes twice within 8-15 months when there have apparently only been 6 such moves in the SPX the last 72 years. I've been trading off and on since the 1980s. I know far more now then what I did then. My "noise" meter is quite good these days.
 
Nine_Ender said:
I play probabilities and too many short term traders have unreasonable ideas on long term moves. Like expecting 30% crashes twice within 8-15 months when there have apparently only been 6 such moves in the SPX the last 72 years. I've been trading off and on since the 1980s. I know far more now then what I did then. My "noise" meter is quite good these days.
More...

How did you establish low probabilities of very high inflation? Everything else you said in your last post isn't relevant.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top