Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$
- Thread starter makloda
- Start date
Thank you for your post.
Simply put - if I understand you correctly - there was a lack of direction on the 5-minute chart?
If that's how you define volatility, sure...
I don't quite know how you calculate that Excel sheet, but is it simply range per 5 minute bar? If so - how does that sheet track directional moves and not just increase in range per bar? You could very well have multiple large 5-minute bars in the opposite direction.
On a 5-minute chart - it can very well appear flat, while on a faster chart, there may be waves in between those 5-minute points.
Where is @Rickshaw Man ?
He's waiting for the Fed to start printing free vaccines.
Death rate could be much higher than reported. That table you quoted says its 0.2% for people aged 29. But that chineese doctor one of the first to report about it died, he was 29. Yeah he could be the unlucky 1 in 500 of 29 years who do die (according to that table). But im not so sure.
And even if your table is correct its still 10x more deadly than flu, and could spread to more people than flu does.
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No. And in that part of the answer I will say volatility could be defined on ANY time based chart. 5 minutes is merely a variable.
There are 2 types of volatility. There is the kind measured by tools such as VIX, and there is bar volatility. Bar volatility has 2 components. One is the speed or pace of the volume as the bar is forming. Two is the price volatility (range) of the bar itself, which is also tied to volume.
Using PERCENTILE: once on volume and once on bar range. Match up the percentiles.
Feel free to get as complex as you want. The results will be the same... Higher volume leads to increased bar range a.k.a. bar volatility. Lower volume leads to lessened bar volatility.
Your post from a different thread...
Only thing you don't mention in that post is it occurred on volume of 4.25 million, which is possibly another record of some sort!
You should also be able to understand that yesterday was a more subdued range volatility type of trade, versus today whcih was directional volatility.
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Well - if you have a daily bar then - consisting of 390 minutes opening at the top and closing at the bottom. How can you tell anything about the volatility within that day other than to say the range is small or large?
It could be a clean drop from Open to Close or it can be a day with huge swings in between.
That's why I said that a 5 minute chart can be rangebound - while a 1-minute chart over the same period can have clean swings from high to low.
As far as I know, the VIX measured implied volatility using SPX options. I do think it's only looking at actual price change. Hence why it will spike after price drops - even if it doesn't move that much (relatively speaking) after the drop. I think there are more than 2 types of volatility. For example the one I'm using which tracks the # of swings (consisting of multiple bars) and the sum of those swings. I think this must be what Hershey or his students call the days full offer.
Anyway, I'm curious about what you're saying about 'bar volatility'.
How do you measure 'speed or pace of the colume as the bar is forming'?
By the way - are you a student of Hershey? I think I've seen you post in some of those threads.
That's because I don't really track volume. Being a volume afficiando - don't you track that type of information?
I'm a bit pressed on time right now, but wouldn't mind taking a look myself as soon as I can (takes some time to get that stuff into spreadsheets). But taking a brief look on my trading software, it does appear to be at record levels, but not an actual record:
This is RTH only (09:30-16:00) and the daily bars are constructed with a custom script due to NT not being able to produce 09:30-16:00 bars out of the box, so I can't say for sure if this is accurate.