Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

[Laissez Faire]

Try looking at all the data, not just Thursday. Please report back on your findings.

For all days or every weekday? I can run the data after the close later tonight.

I'm only looking at the difference between the cash close (16:00 EST) and cash open (09:30 EST) and not actual overnight data.

If you're saying that stock indices simply rise overnight 'most of the time' and is 'up' at some point in time during ETH, I don't have the data set up to check out that right now. Maybe someone else could assist. Would be interesting to see those numbers also.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Try looking at all the data, not just Thursday. Please report back on your findings.

The average open price is + 0,50. The ratio is 56 % positive/44 % negative. So, pretty close to 50 %.

Now, we all know this is a great bull market, so obviously BTFD have worked for quite a while during extended periods of time. But my data suggests that simply buying the cash close and selling the open is not a golden goose. Selling at some point later in time or the day? Maybe. But there's certainly risk in this market also as we saw last year and early this year.

 

[mbondy]

The average open price is + 0,50. The ratio is 56 % positive/44 % negative. So, pretty close to 50 %.

Now, we all know this is a great bull market, so obviously BTFD have worked for quite a while during extended periods of time. But my data suggests that simply buying the cash close and selling the open is not a golden goose. Selling at some point later in time or the day? Maybe. But there's certainly risk in this market also as we saw last year and early this year.

View attachment 200217

Why don't you run the data on futures, buying the RTH close and selling the open, since it's the futures that are rising?

Also, 56% is not 'pretty close to 50%'. If there is a guaranteed 6% edge, then there is a 100% chance of winning 6% which is altogether different.

 

[S2007S]

Yep these trade talks are going absolutely no where, this is just more wasted chit chat and pointless headlines


‘New consensus’ reached on US-China trade, says Chinese Vice Premier Liu He


Chinese President Xi Jinping, through a message conveyed by Liu, told Trump that both sides have made new and substantial progress on key issues regarding trade in the past month, according to Xinhua. Xi said he hopes both sides will continue to work together to conclude negotiation on trade text as early as possible, Xinhua reported.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/05/us-china-trade-new-consensus-reached-says-chinas-liu-he.html

 

[Laissez Faire]

Why don't you run the data on futures, buying the RTH close and selling the open, since it's the futures that are rising?

That's what I did, I think?

Also, 56% is not 'pretty close to 50%'. If there is a guaranteed 6% edge, then there is a 100% chance of winning 6% which is altogether different.

Are you equating a 56 % 'win rate' with a 6% edge? I don't think the calculation is that simple.

 

[mbondy]

That's what I did, I think?



Are you equating a 56 % 'win rate' with a 6% edge? I don't think the calculation is that simple.

You tell me. From the numbers you gave, all things on balance, it would appear you have a 6% edge buying the close and selling the open. I'm assuming you ran the data based on an actual sale and a purchase... what was the final tally of net profit?

From a gambling perspective, as long as risk and reward are constant, that's 100% chance of winning 6% over thousands of iterations, no?

 

[Rickshaw Man]

The average open price is + 0,50. The ratio is 56 % positive/44 % negative. So, pretty close to 50 %.

Now, we all know this is a great bull market, so obviously BTFD have worked for quite a while during extended periods of time. But my data suggests that simply buying the cash close and selling the open is not a golden goose. Selling at some point later in time or the day? Maybe. But there's certainly risk in this market also as we saw last year and early this year.

View attachment 200217

Imagine following this for the past 15 years, you kind of get a good idea of whats likely to happen. For instance did the markets close near the high, or did it close at the lows.

 

[Rickshaw Man]

The old buy the close sell the open will pay off nicely today. One big gap up at the cash open......SO EASY MAKING FREE MONEY.....$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

[S2007S]

Just wow...just Fu©king wow

Cut rates...? Why would one cut rates in what is supposingly a skyrocketing economy. Huge job growth record earnings, wage growth and gdp rising to 3%???

Let's make rates negative and just hand everyone free money .





Trump says economy would take off like ‘rocket ship’ if Fed cut rates, ends tightening policy



https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/05/tru...-if-fed-cut-rates-ends-tightening-policy.html

 

[noddyboy]

Just wow...just Fu©king wow

Cut rates...? Why would one cut rates in what is supposingly a skyrocketing economy. Huge job growth record earnings, wage growth and gdp rising to 3%???

Let's make rates negative and just hand everyone free money .





Trump says economy would take off like ‘rocket ship’ if Fed cut rates, ends tightening policy



https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/05/tru...-if-fed-cut-rates-ends-tightening-policy.html

If that happens stock will soar because it is priced in dollars which is worth less.