Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

OTCkrak said:
seriously.. I don't know how this goes much higher.. $FANG stocks are tapped out.. if anything I'd be shorting FB and AMZN around here..
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I'm agreeing with you, sooner or later these FAANG stocks will be stocks you wish you sold off or don't want to own as each stock has it's great moments in history....I mean yes Amazon is a great well run company but with a stock price that's certainly outperforming you have to think are earnings going to keep up with such a sky high flying stock.... Netflix as well. I mean if they miss just a quarter or two of subscriber growth this stock is going to lose an easy 1/3 of it's value...these stocks are priced to perfection!!!
 
How many funds are invested in these top names, these are the stocks that are helping these funds add fresh gains year over year, but eventually we all know these trades don't last forever.


Netflix PE is 265

Amazon PE is 256


Whewwwwwww

Apple Google and facebook have more conservative PE ratios
As for apple the only revenue stream they have going for them is the iphone, with sales slowing who knows how much further that can carry the stock moving forward, I think 20% of the gains in apple are based off news Warren buffet bought into the company!
Fb looks to be tiring out as well. Unless they can sqeeze more revenue from the mobile platform side of things this company will be seeing a slowdown as more users take a break from the ever so popular social network
Googles last earnings miss might be a continuous new trend as expenses add up in fees Google pays to third party search partners, an increasing concern for its advertising business.
 
Speaking of nasdaq new highs and tech.... XLK saw the largest inflow of money since 2011, as I mentioned earlier about FAANG 3 of the top names are in this ETF

If you take notice of the article it says that in February $1.2 billion ran out of the fund, that was during the extreme selloff, now that the Nasdaq is back at new highs 616 million poured into the etf on thursday as the Nasdaq was screaming higher, so what I'm saying is that you can see how off timed the selling of 1.2 billion worth of XLK was. They sold it during the sell off only to buy it back at the highs!!!!!!!!

Which means this huge one day buying of XLK since 2011 is by no means an indicator of higher prices.....

apple 14.2%
google 10.5%
facebook 6.8%


Investors just poured heaps of cash into the $21 billion Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund, the largest ETF globally tracking stocks of technology companies. Known by its ticker XLK, the fund has been a go-to bet for buyers looking for cheap and broad tech exposure, charging a low expense ratio of 13 basis points. The fund saw almost $616 million in inflows on Thursday, the most since December 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.


The bullish behavior comes after XLK investors pulled the plug on $1.2 billion worth of bets in February, the largest month of outflows for the fund since October 2014, the data show. Tech, media and telecom stocks have recovered since the broad market selloff on Feb. 5, aided by strong fourth-quarter earnings.


The fund’s top holdings are Apple Inc. (14.2%), Microsoft Corp. (11.4%), Alphabet Inc. (10.5%) and Facebook Inc. (6.8%).


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ech-etf-just-lured-in-heaps-of-cash-etf-watch
 
volente_00 said:
Every now and then a trend day whoops this contrarian
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IMO this *was* the contrarian move man, and that's one of the reasons it moved up without a single dip - tons of people offsides. Once this thing cleared 2735 you should have abandoned all hope on the short stuff and went balls deep long.

Everyone earlier in the week (not necessarily in this thread) was seemingly waiting in unison for the next leg down almost as if that was the standard expectation of some kind of head and shoulder thing playing out. A cursory observation would reveal both bearish looking action but also the market not cooperating with it and when a market doesn't do what it "should be doing" that should be a huge tip off to people to consider if a crowded position is about to get killed. That Cohn gap was a gift and even if he hadn't have resigned the market most likely still would have went there anyway - it just gave it the excuse to do it that much more quickly. Gap not only filled (duh, this is ES we're talking here) but it refused to break lower after and one's spidey sense should have been on alert at that point. Hell, the real troll move would have been to kinda break lower, trap shorts, and then rip everyone's face off that much more.

Chart_18-03-09_15-20-45.png


We're now at the 61.8% extension off that IHS looking thing (4h chart) that bottomed in the beginning of the month. Next one up is the 2820 area *if* we clear higher from here. Nothing is guaranteed and this could start playing out into some kind of W/double bottom looking thing be it from here or even from 2877. That's probably the better outcome for bulls but the bear flag risk is still ready to play out as well. On the HTF it could also just simply be a 38.2% pullback and we're on our way to all time highs again, and as annoying as that it is, never underestimate just how ridiculous it can get. At some point though central banks will have their hand forced by inflation and if history is any guide they'll be behind the curve as usual. Everyone should have an eye on 2s, 10s, and 30s at all times as many of the big entities pumping money into equities also have their eyes on them. There's plenty of pensions that *do not* want to have all this equity exposure and if a lower risk option can provide a suitable return after nearly a decade of monetary terrorism you can bet your ass they're interested.

IMO it's also good to cross check things across all the various indexes, including DAX, FESX, FTSE100, SPI/XJO, HSI, HHI, N225, TOPX, A50, TAIEX, you name it. If it's a major index check it because it can give a clue to the next move in your index of choice (or multiple choices for that matter). It's a giant pile of easy money being shifted around from one place to another on an ongoing basis and your job is figure out where it's going or not going next.

PS: I've also got my eyes on AAPL due to the upper channel on the *monthly* and it's inability to break 180 for weeks now (potential double top). It's one of the more "honest" stocks out there and can serve as a barometer at times when it doesn't have it's own sentiment party going on. Russell's also on a tear so that's something to keep in mind as well.
 
I agree the move long yesterday was "the contrarian play" quoting i960.. on Thursday when it was pushing against the 50mda was the final stand for the bears..the news about tariff exemptions + N Korea meeting + NFP just blew it out.. I think the 2900 is the near term magnet easy money IMO but like I said before FANG has some weakness.. I don't see AMZN or FB with much upside and that's a problem. bulls need more market breath. I'd like to see energy stocks break out
 
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OTCkrak said:
I agree the move long yesterday was "the contrarian play" quoting i960.. on Thursday when it was pushing against the 50mda was the final stand for the bears..the news about tariff exemptions + N Korea meeting + NFP just blew it out.. I think the 2900 is the near term magnet easy money IMO but like I said before FANG has some weakness.. I don't see AMZN or FB with much upside and that's a problem. bulls need more market breath. I'd like to see energy stocks break out
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Let's be honest and real here, without FAANG Nasdaq doesn't have any upside, all upside has been with maybe a handful of stocks....and with Amazon and apple accounting for most of the NDX 100 once these turn south so does the rest of the market...
They have put tooooo much emphasis on a handful of stocks to carry this market higher, eventually this trade will tire out.....and at the rate Amazon is adding market cap it will be a $2 trillion dollar company by December, earnings can no way support such a high valuation.....
 
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