Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

Does the fact it actually breached the 200 DMA today in the cash market, give you pause that it will go lower? It bounced pretty hard off the 200 DMA, but it did breach it. Today's bounce higher could be for opex today. Next week do we resume down and re-test 200 DMA or not?

Also, any chance we see 2300 soon? We can reach 2300 first and still get to 3000 by year end following in the longer term channel. 2300 will be a massive shake out from here. People are already buying the dip right here from the 200 DMA to 2600. So further downside to 2300 will really shake out weak hands. No one expects 2300. At 2300 you capture the permabears in a bear trap too, since it looks like a bear market at that point and is when they start piling in.


No one expects 2300 and when it gets there no one will expect a drop below 2000.....no one even expected a drop to 2850 last week before thenshakeout ....while the markets were cruising higher big banks were lifting year end price targets on a week to week basis....now all I'm hearing is that the bottom is in and the resume higher is now. present... hilarious... hilarious...a decade worth of straight upward momentum, a dow up over 300+%, stocks up thousands of percent and now a miniscule dip and everyone is crying like little bitches asking if the bottom is in.......
 
No one expects 2300 and when it gets there no one will expect a drop below 2000.....no one even expected a drop to 2850 last week before thenshakeout ....while the markets were cruising higher big banks were lifting year end price targets on a week to week basis....now all I'm hearing is that the bottom is in and the resume higher is now. present... hilarious... hilarious...a decade worth of straight upward momentum, a dow up over 300+%, stocks up thousands of percent and now a miniscule dip and everyone is crying like little bitches asking if the bottom is in.......
If it breaches 2300 then I'd be weary for a serious unwind. The market has gone way outside above the long term bull channel. Market has dropped back into the channel, and 2300 is the bottom of the channel.

2300 is worth an attempt at long to BTFD IMO, the same way 200 DMA at 2535 was worth a long this past week. But if it breaches 2300, like it breached 200 DMA today, then its possible for more downside for both cases. (?)

I don't think people are done unwinding though. The action this past week seems like the "new low tax rate of 2018 selling of winners" and there might be more to go? That said, I think many are telling clients to buy here at or near the 200 DMA, so it might resume the parabolic move up.
 
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This is insaneeeeee.....22,000 points the Dow has traveled in the past 5 days!!!!!!!!!!

Dow travels more than 22,000 points in one of the wildest weeks since the financial crisis
  • The Dow Jones industrial average posted its worst week in two years. Earlier in the session, the index was on track for its worst week since October 2008, during the financial crisis.
  • The stock index has traveled more than 22,000 points this week in a volatile few days that kicked off Monday with the Dow's biggest closing point drop on record.
  • Stocks are falling as traders worry about rising interest rates, and volatility as measured by the VIX has jumped to its highest since the market turmoil of August 2015.


Dow Jones industrial average points traveled
As of the close Friday, Feb. 9, 2018.

Day Points traveled
Monday 5,113
Tuesday 5,460
Wednesday 2,886
Thursday 3,369
Friday 5,425
TOTAL 22,253



https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/09/dow-travels-20000-points-in-wild-week.html


This is a real wake up call. This market is not normal. Anything can happen. It can keep going down and never BTFD when everyone expects it to.
 
No one expects 2300 and when it gets there no one will expect a drop below 2000.....no one even expected a drop to 2850 last week before thenshakeout ....while the markets were cruising higher big banks were lifting year end price targets on a week to week basis....now all I'm hearing is that the bottom is in and the resume higher is now. present... hilarious... hilarious...a decade worth of straight upward momentum, a dow up over 300+%, stocks up thousands of percent and now a miniscule dip and everyone is crying like little bitches asking if the bottom is in.......


Where do you think a long term bottom is? Surely not 666. Or maybe?
 
Or dcb retest of 2640/50 before breaking below 2530 as the 15 min pattern becomes a large descending triangle. In a declining market the first test of 200 day almost always holds the first time. It's the second test that becomes critical.

It did break through the 200-day on an intraday basis the first time...then rallied hard after a retest. Technically, the higher time frames are paramount. And the highest volume has been on up days this week.
 
If it breaches 2300 then I'd be weary for a serious unwind. The market has gone way outside above the long term bull channel. Market has dropped back into the channel, and 2300 is the bottom of the channel.

2300 is worth an attempt at long to BTFD IMO, the same way 200 DMA at 2535 was worth a long this past week. But if it breaches 2300, like it breached 200 DMA today, then its possible for more downside for both cases. (?)

I don't think people are done unwinding though. The action this past week seems like the "new low tax rate of 2018 selling of winners" and there might be more to go? That said, I think many are telling clients to buy here at or near the 200 DMA, so it might resume the parabolic move up.



Are you paying closer attention to the S&p 200 dma rather than the Dow?

Will probably find out this week what happens. we are at a point now where I believe if people are catching an intraday bottom they are selling the rips higher......
 
Are you paying closer attention to the S&p 200 dma rather than the Dow?

Will probably find out this week what happens. we are at a point now where I believe if people are catching an intraday bottom they are selling the rips higher......

Interesting point
 
It did break through the 200-day on an intraday basis the first time...then rallied hard after a retest. Technically, the higher time frames are paramount. And the highest volume has been on up days this week.


I've got 200day at 2533 spx
Monday volume 3.8 mil es down 5.4%
Friday 3.7 mill up 1%
 
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