Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

[nickynoes]

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth

I wish I had gotten punched in the mouth sooner. Im still a newbie but Im learning.

Long from 2602. Target 2610. We are making higher highs and higher lows overall since the drop yesterday. Will it lead up to another big drop? The living will find out.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

I respect that, I am guessing since you are a trend trader, whiplashing is your enemy nr1. Dont you think that in this current volatility the probability of whiplashing is much greater? Do you simply just keep taking the trades as usual and just hope to ride it out until you get those big winners?

I would ask you to look at the daily ES chart 10/15/14, 8/25/15 and 6/27/16.

 

[nickynoes]

I would ask you to look at the daily ES chart 10/15/14, 8/25/15 and 6/27/16.

Is your point that the market has big up swings during those periods? Im not arguing with you there, in fact, it is also what I try to do. My point is that you can also try to catch the big down moves aswell. Especially during 8/25/15 the market is swinging wildy up and down and not being biased too much and able to both short and long that market would have been much more profitable than just trying to long it and getting whiplashed in the process?

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Is your point that the market has big up swings during those periods? Im not arguing with you there, in fact, it is also what I try to do. My point is that you can also try to catch the big down moves aswell. Especially during 8/25/15 the market is swinging wildy up and down and not being biased too much and able to both short and long that market would have been much more profitable than just trying to long it and getting whiplashed in the process?

The two uptrends that followed 8/25/15 were both larger than any downdraft after 9/17/15, especially the second uptrend. Trading from the lon side only offered a chance to ride big trends a long way to reap a larger benefit than trying to be right back and forth.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Is it possible that we trade below the low of two days ago at 2530? Certainly. However, we have a strong likelihood of trading higher from here in the short term in my view. (Prepositional phrases aside)

 

[nickynoes]

The two uptrends that followed 8/25/15 were both larger than any downdraft after 9/17/15, especially the second uptrend. Trading from the lon side only offered a chance to ride big trends a long way to reap a larger benefit than trying to be right back and forth.

Why would also trading short at the same time rule out the possibility of riding the larger long trade later?

As I said, I am not questioning why you are long, it makes a lot of sense to be long in an index since they are naturally skewed to the long side. My question is more why you are pushing to be long so much when you are getting stopped out again and again.

Also, I do not try to be right back and forth when I flip positions as I do, I am only following what the market tells me, and right now it tells me it is in a whiplash phase where it is more probable to reverse directions on tops and bottoms than to establish any longer term trends at the moment.

As soon as this correction is over you can be pretty sure that most of my trades will be on the long side. The problem is that I cant possibly know when this correction will be over or if it will go sideways for a year. And trying to go long repeatedly during such a market condition doesnt feel very optimal, atleast to me.



Starting to form an ascending triangle on the 15M. Retest of neckline today before a retest of the low?

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Drawing a line across the cash chart from the high on 11/7/17, you'll see that we have come back to that area that was resistance at that time and then a breakout occurred. We are in the area now. There is at least a possibility that that resistance that was that high will now be support. No guarantee, but it will be interesting to see if that is the case.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Why would also trading short at the same time rule out the possibility of riding the larger long trade later?

As I said, I am not questioning why you are long, it makes a lot of sense to be long in an index since they are naturally skewed to the long side. My question is more why you are pushing to be long so much when you are getting stopped out again and again.

Also, I do not try to be right back and forth when I flip positions as I do, I am only following what the market tells me, and right now it tells me it is in a whiplash phase where it is more probable to reverse directions on tops and bottoms than to establish any longer term trends at the moment.

As soon as this correction is over you can be pretty sure that most of my trades will be on the long side. The problem is that I cant possibly know when this correction will be over or if it will go sideways for a year. And trying to go long repeatedly during such a market condition doesnt feel very optimal, atleast to me.



Starting to form an ascending triangle on the 15M. Retest of neckline today before a retest of the low?

it's that very thing ---that the market is skewed long. I also believe that when trying to trade both sides, there then is more opportunity for mistakes to be made. In any event, the only edge we have is to control risk and manage trades properly. If it crashes tomorrow, I will be wrong----but how much do I lose is where the rubber meets the road. __In my view.

One must be careful when making any trade long or short so as to not be overxtended and lose too much and when right, to try and reap as much benefit as possible.

 

[nickynoes]

it's that very thing ---that the market is skewed long. I also believe that when trying to trade both sides, there then is more opportunity for mistakes to be made. In any event, the only edge we have is to control risk and manage trades properly. If it crashes tomorrow, I will be wrong----but how much do I lose is where the rubber meets the road. __In my view.

One must be careful when making any trade long or short so as to not be overxtended and lose too much and when right, to try and reap as much benefit as possible.

This should only be true if you are better at trading one side than the other, otherwise it should only mean more opportunity. Some may say more opportunity to make mistakes, but if you are a trader that has a positive expectancy more opportunity should only equate to more money in the end.

I agree with the rest of your post.

 

[Brianharvey]

SS 2610
10 Point stop