Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

[Buy1Sell2]

You have to look at total returns. SPX has more than doubled during the time period you specified.

certainly when earnings are factored in. However, if you'll look at 1993 until 2000, you'll see that the market more than tripled without earnings from high to high. We're not even doubled yet in this market and the first portion of the bull was fueled by air ie Hussein's policies and the Fed.

 

[OTCkrak]

of course there's an upside bias in indexes.. look at DOW.. what's the weakest stock "holding it back"??.. (GE). guess what... they take GE and replace it with "the next big thing" and the index goes higher.. almost unfair to the bears/shorts really

 

[KevinD]

of course there's an upside bias in indexes.. look at DOW.. what's the weakest stock "holding it back"??.. GE.. guess what they take GE an replace it with "the next big thing" and the index goes higher.. almost unfair to the shorts

I've known experienced (say 20-30-40 years) traders who NEVER short the markets and do just fine (even in bear markets). It's also true that the sharpest "rip your face off" rallies also occur in bear markets. Takes a great deal of skill to consistently short the indicies and come out in one piece.

 

[jamesblacktrader]

of course there's an upside bias in indexes.. look at DOW.. what's the weakest stock "holding it back"??.. (GE). guess what... they take GE and replace it with "the next big thing" and the index goes higher.. almost unfair to the bears/shorts really

exactly this.
I'm new to all of this, but i've listened too the people who always make money, and theyv often mention teh 'natural upside' of the markets, and mention things like that (weak stocks getting removed, government step in when it goes down too much, introducing rules like the uptick rule etc)
It's mad to be a bear in my eyes

I even go through posts from years ago in the ES journal to see who was right and who was wrong etc.

 

[Visaria]

short dow future at 380...more of a hedge rather than spec.

 

[jamesblacktrader]

can't see it going down much more here

 

[Visaria]

Who is this Hussein guy and what does he have to do with anything? Saddam Hussein? thought he was dead.

 

[Visaria]

if the dow breaks the high of day, you are looking at another 100 points up

 

[Overnight]

Who is this Hussein guy and what does he have to do with anything? Saddam Hussein? thought he was dead.

He means Obama. Hussein is his middle name.

 

[volente_00]

I should point out that the S&P hit a high of 1576 prior to the 2007-2009 meltdown. Today we are @ 2846, so you can see that we have not even doubled in a decade. An argument can be made that this move is in it's infancy with all the new money coming in and that includes repatriation.

80% return since 2008 high

But also 92% return since first quarter of 2013

Market avg return is ~10% annual over 20-30 year time frame


The problem is the angle of the ascent. Show me one time in history S&P has exhibited this steep of climb that did not result in a large correction ?